Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 251736
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1236 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A surface ridge was moving across the Ozarks early this morning
and was pushing the remaining precipitation north and east of the
region. While sunny skies are not expected, there should be a bit
more sun through out the day through scattered cloud cover. This
will allow afternoon temperatures to climb to around the 80 degree
mark.

Though there is some residual flooding occurring along some
rivers in the western part of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas,
will be canceling the Flash Flood Watch early as little if any
rain is expected today.

The ridge is expected to slowly move across the area through
today, as another upper level short wave swings north towards the
Ozarks for tonight. Showers should develop in advance of the wave
as early as 00z. The short wave then begins to move through the
region during the overnight hours tonight. The heavier rains with
this wave should stay along the MO/AR state line with around an
inch of rain possible. Will need to watch for heavier rain
potential, but think that the bulk of the rainfall will fall south
of the state line and should not pose any flood risk for the
Ozarks tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

There is very little change in the overall pattern noted by the
models for the coming week and into next weekend. Periods of
showers and scattered storms will be interspersed and mingled with
dry and sunny weather each day this week. No period looks as
though it stands out at this time for heavy rains or severe
storms. However, the models do handle the fine details slightly
differently each day. This week will be a short term, mesoscale
challenge each day with the potential for localized heavy rain
and/or strong storms possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

What`s left of the MCS that moved through Kansas overnight
continues to move eastward through the region this afternoon.
Short term guidance is suggesting that a couple showers are
possible later this afternoon ahead of the next significant mid-
level disturbance that should push through overnight. As it does,
rain and perhaps a few claps of thunder will move from Oklahoma
and/or northern Arkansas into the MO Ozarks.

Generally, MVFR conditions expected, however, confidence in cigs
dropping into the IFR and perhaps into the LIFR range Tuesday
morning is increasing. Cigs will begin to improve over all three
terminals by mid to late morning. Like the last few days, A Marginal
LLWS signal is there, however, low confidence/thresholds kept it
short of being highlighted.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Frye





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