Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 230531

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1131 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

...Update to Aviation for 06Z TAFs...

Issued at 217 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

Not much in the way of cloud cover across the area and
temperatures have responded under the full sun. After readings
this morning in the teens to low 20s, afternoon temperatures have
climbed back into the mid 40s to low 50s.

Main focus in the short term will remain with temperatures, but
will shift to precipitation chances and amounts heading into the
holiday weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0217 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

Surface ridge axis will continue to shift to the east tonight with
a south to southwest light wind expected. Coolest readings will
once again be in the eastern CWA where some 20s will once again
occur. Elsewhere, expecting lows in the low 30s.

Should be warmer on Monday with low level warm advection and
temperatures should warm back into the mid to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0217 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

Warm advection should continue through mid-week with highs in the
50s and lows in the 30s and 40s. Could see some light showers
develop within this warm advection pattern by Tuesday night into
Wednesday, but not expecting much in the way of QPF with this
initial precipitation chance.

The main system will begin to move into the area on Thanksgiving
Day with a frontal system. With the slower to develop system, have
trimmed pops in the eastern Ozarks on Thursday and bring the
system through Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures warm
enough for all rain at this point and while instability looks
rather weak, may be enough for an isolated thunderstorm on the
warm side of the front. After this first wave pushes through the
area, there will likely be a break before additional
precipitation moves back into the area. With upper low deepening
out west, we remain in southwest flow aloft after the frontal
passage with shortwave energy moving through the area throughout
the holiday weekend. While cooler air will move in behind the
frontal passage, the depth of the cold air holds back and have
decided to go with all rain in the forecast at this point. It
looks like a wet holiday weekend with several inches of rain.
Given the recent heavy rain and flooding will need to keep an eye
on additional heavy rain/flooding possibilities upcoming.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFs: VFR conditions will occur at
the TAF sites overnight and through the day on Monday as clear
skies and south to southwesterly winds prevail.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.