Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 201742
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1142 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 145 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Continued warm but more active weather is in store today as an
upper level trough and Pacific front approach from the west.
Ongoing band of showers and embedded thunder will transition
eastward into southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri early
this morning then into the Ozarks region during the day.

Expect convection to lose intensity as it moves into the region
this morning. A re-intensification of convection could take place
this afternoon along the leading edge of the precipitation shield
as it moves into south central Missouri. Short term models suggest
at least modest instability with potential of an axis of enhanced
instability across south central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks
this afternoon where daytime heating will be maximized. Most
unstable CAPE of a few if not several hundred J/KG is progged
generally east of Highway 65. This could be enough to cause an
uptick in the coverage and intensity of thunderstorms. Given the
deep layer shear in excess of 40 kts a stronger isolated storm
with gusty winds or small hail cannot be ruled out but severe
weather is not expected at this time.

While most areas will receive rainfall, total amounts will not
put much of a dent in the current dry spell. Total amounts through
tonight will generally range from one tenth to one half of an
inch.

The increase in clouds and showers will hold temperatures down a
bit with highs generally expected to range from the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 145 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

The unseasonably warm weather will continue through mid week as a
zonal pattern evolves. Southerly winds will resume Wednesday and
increase on Thursday as surface low pressure develops over the
Plains. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will climb into the middle
and upper 70s. Elevated fire weather conditions will develop in
some areas Wednesday as temperatures warm and the airmass remains
dry.

The surface low pressure system will strengthen as it tracks into
northern Missouri on Friday and a broad upper level trough
transitions eastward from the western U.S. An associated cold
front will push across the region on Friday. At this time a mostly
dry frontal passage is expected as the deeper moisture remains to
our east. Resulting increase in surface winds will result in
elevated fire weather conditions especially Friday.

A colder weather pattern with temperatures more typical of late
February can be expected next weekend into early next week.
Chances of precipitation could return late next weekend into next
Monday but the details remain uncertain at this time as confidence
in model solutions remains low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Scattered areas of showers and MVFR conditions will persist this
afternoon and this evening as an upper level storm system slowly
moves east across the region. The potential for MVFR will then
increase late tonight on the back edge of this storm system. This
could include some IFR potential closer to sunrise and into early
Tuesday morning.

Winds will slowly shift from southerly to southwesterly this
afternoon before becoming light and variable tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Highs for the next two days follow:

             Feb 20th      Feb 21st
Springfield  77/2016       73/1935
Joplin       78/2016       76/1996
West Plains  76/2016       73/2016
Vichy-Rolla  75/2016       70/1992

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann
CLIMATE...Foster



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