Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 212125
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
425 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...Increasingly Unsettled with Potential for Heavy Rain this
Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The unseasonably cool weather will continue tonight as surface
high pressure settles over the area. Remaining cloud cover will
clear and will monitor fog potential overnight especially across
south central Missouri.

Clouds will once again be on the increase Friday as an initial minor
shortwave trough swings into the Plains.  Developing moisture
advection and isentropic upglide will bring showers from the Plains
into southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri during the day
Friday into Friday night with the best coverage west of Highway 65.
Areas across the eastern Ozarks may remain dry Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Warm air and moisture advection will strengthen Saturday through the
weekend a broad upper level trough slowly pushes east across the
western U.S.  Scattered to potentially numerous convection will
impact eastern Kansas into western Missouri Saturday on the edge of
a deep moisture plume with less coverage farther east during the day
Saturday.

The coverage and intensity of rainfall will gradually increase from
the west Saturday night through Monday as the western trough slowly
lifts to the east and northeast. Rainfall efficiency will increase
as the deep moisture plume shifts eastward. Rainfall totals could become
heavy late in the weekend particularly across southeastern Kansas
into southwestern Missouri where storm rainfall could approach 3
inches. The potential for flooding will have to be closely monitored
and Flash Flood Watches may be issued with later forecast.

The potential for severe weather remains conditional with the amount
of instability in question.  There could be more robust updrafts
Sunday afternoon and evening if sufficient surface heating takes
place.

Models continue to depict an unsettled weather pattern next week
with periodic chances for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather and VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Weak north to northeast winds at the surface will eventually become
light and variable this evening and tonight. Meanwhile, cloud
cover will erode, particularly this evening as we lose afternoon
heating.

No low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are anticipated
through Friday morning.

Safe Travels.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer





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