Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 252313
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

An upper level ridge axis has shifted east into the area today in
the wake of the departing closed low. With plenty of sunshine
across the CWA, temperatures have already risen into the low to
mid 70s.

Forecast focus will be with the upcoming holiday weekend storm
system and the potential for some severe weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

For tonight, low pressure will develop in the plains with a stout
southwest to northeast low level jet setting up at 40 to 50 kts.
Mid level warming will continue to shift eastward with a large
thermal cap setting up over the area. While we can`t completely
rule out some elevated convection with the low level jet, we are
expecting most locations to remain dry tonight.

The cap will remain in place through the day Friday, but may
weaken enough by late in the day into Friday evening for some
scattered convection. Large hail would be the main risk if storms
can develop.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Additional scattered elevated convection will be possible Friday
night, but the main convective complex will be located across
Kansas and Nebraska. The main severe weather chances will be on
Saturday into Saturday night. Thermal profiles suggest large CAPE
values during the afternoon (4000-5000 j/kg) ahead of an eastward
moving cold front. CAPE/Shear profiles would suggest all modes of
severe weather possible. A large scale tornado risk is NOT
expected at this time due to a veering southwest surface wind,
however it can`t be ruled out either, especially if interacting
with any mesoscale surface boundaries. Given the thermodynamic
profiles, thunderstorms should quickly become severe with large
hail up to the size of baseballs possible, eventually becoming a
linear complex later in the evening with a damaging wind risk.

Any lingering convection should end from northwest to southeast
fairly early Sunday, with generally pleasant conditions for Sunday
and Monday to close out the Memorial Day weekend.

Unsettled weather is then expected for much of the upcoming week
with a west to northwest flow and low end chances of
showers/storms at this point as ripples of energy moves through in
the upper levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

VFR will continue for the next 24 hours at all TAF sites. The only
aviation concern will be a strengthening low level jet later
tonight causing potential non thunderstorm wind shear right off
the surface. Otherwise southerly winds will be breezy around 10 to
13 knots. There will be some gusty winds up to 20 knots Friday
morning through the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Griffin


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