Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 151929
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
129 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 128 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Arctic front has plunged through the area this morning and our
temperatures have dropped dramatically behind the front, from
around 32 early this morning into the 15 to 27 degree range as of
1 pm. Moderate to heavy snow band from southeast Kansas into
southwest and southern Missouri this morning left from 2 to 4
inches with lesser amounts on either side of the band. We
officially totaled 2.2 inches at the office with a 4 inch snow
depth at 18z. Moderate to heavy snow was ongoing, but was limited
to along the Missouri Arkansas border. We have extended the
advisory until 3 pm to cover the far southern Missouri counties.

Focus will then turn to the bitterly cold temperatures and wind
chills from tonight into Wednesday morning, with a warming trend
for the later part of the week into the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 128 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

For tonight, should start to see some clearing from north to
south, with some clearing already occurring in central MO.
Temperatures should drop to around zero to three below tonight
across the area, but will maintain a steady northwesterly wind at
10 to 20 mph which will give us wind chills of -10 to -24 degrees
overnight. The cold will not go away on Tuesday as the Arctic high
pressure will still be building into the region. Highs are only
expected to get into the single digits to teens and wind chills
will be in the -10 to -20 degree range during the morning and only
recovering into the single digits below zero during the afternoon.
Our wind chill advisory for the entire area goes until noon on
Tuesday.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 128 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

The surface high pressure system will then move across the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday, so the winds will relax, but with
the snowcover and arctic air mass in place will likely see similar
lows to tonight. The wind chills should mostly remain above
criteria (-10 deg F), so will leave current wind chill advisory as
is for now.

Wednesday will be slightly warmer as the surface high slowly
slides to the southeast and most of the area by the end of the day
should have a light southerly wind. However, highs are still
expected to remain below freezing, with lows Wednesday night in
the teens.

The warming trend will persist through the remainder of the week
into the weekend, finally getting to above freezing (in the low
40s) on Thursday, in the 40s to low 50s by Friday and the mid to
upper 50s by Saturday. The much warmer weather will take place as
the upper pattern transitions from northwest flow to a more
southwesterly flow out ahead of progressive trough. This system
will bring (mostly rain) to the area late Saturday night into
Sunday, with maybe some light snow or flurries Sunday night as the
colder air moves in behind the trough.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Snow remains in BBG and will continue there for another 1-2hrs
with IFR conditions before improving some during late afternoon.
JLN and SGF will mainly see MVFR and VFR conditions for the rest
of today with gusty north winds. No additional snow is expected at
JLN and SGF. Another mid level deck will move in Tuesday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ093-
     097-101>106.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday
     for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday
     for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Burchfield


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