Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 022332
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 622 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A weak frontal boundary had sagged southward to near the Arkansas
border this afternoon. A few multi-cell clusters and even a
earlier supercell had developed along this boundary. A limited
risk for severe weather remains along the Arkansas boarder through
8 PM within axis of better instability. Expect any severe weather
threat to end during the early evening.

Activity across northeastern Kansas will be monitored as it slides
southeastward as this may impact southeastern Kansas and far
western Missouri during the night. However severe weather is not
expected with this activity.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Residual flooding from previous two days/nights of heavy rainfall
continues across much of the forecast area. Many low water
crossing remain flooded, along with road closures and rivers are
running high. Flooding will likely continue into the evening and
areal flood warnings may need to be extended past 5 pm.

Currently have showers and thunderstorms associated with upper
level energy across central and southern Kansas pushing south-
southeast. This activity extends northeast into eastern Nebraska
and northwest Missouri and may push into the Ozarks region this
evening.

In addition, a boundary remains positioned from west to east
across far southern Missouri this afternoon and may be the focus
for additional thunderstorm activity later this afternoon and evening.

The focus with this forecast will be with these thunderstorm
chances tonight through the holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Bulk of the hi-res models show the convection moving in from the
northwest staying to the west over Kansas and may push into west
central MO and extreme southeast Kansas this evening. Along the
southern boundary, models keep most of the convection to our south
across Arkansas. That said, we are still keeping pops in for
tonight with favored areas across the west with the upper level
shortwave, and the south along and south of the boundary. The
southern storms will have the highest potential of becoming strong
to severe with large hail and damaging winds the main severe
weather risks. For rainfall, it does not appear we will have the
same setup for organized convection tonight as we have had the
past couple of nights and rainfall will be more scattered and much
less than in previous nights. Residual flooding will likely
persist tonight however with some river/stream crests still not
occurring yet.

More shortwave energy will dive southeast into the area on Friday
with the frontal boundary still bisecting southern MO. Will hold
on to scattered thunderstorms throughout the day for the forecast.
Again, not expecting widespread heavy rain, but more scattered
with the rainfall amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Heading into the holiday weekend, the thunderstorm chances will
remain as we continue in a west-northwest flow pattern aloft with
shortwave energy continuing to push through. However main
shortwave will push through on Friday and precipitation chances
will lessen from Friday night into Sunday.

Things become more problematic again during the early part of next
week as we get into more of a westerly pattern aloft and a front
boundary begins to stall out across the region. Showers and
thunderstorms will be forecast through the remainder of the
extended period and it looks like the potential for more heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A very moist low level airmass and light northeasterly flow at the
surface will support MVFR ceilings tonight into Friday morning.
Areas of fog and MVFR visibilities may also develop overnight.
Ceilings will gradually rise into the VFR category by Friday
afternoon. Thunderstorms may impact the Branson vicinity early
this evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster






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