Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 221737
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1137 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 150 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Dense fog will continue early this morning across the area and
existing Dense Fog Advisory handles things well through 9am. Once
the fog burns off temps will really warm up with record breaking
highs possible in some locations. Relative humidity values will
fall near or below 30 percent this afternoon across SE Kansas and
W Missouri. This combined with 20 mph wind gusts will create
elevated fire weather conditions. Low temps Tonight will remain
mild in the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 150 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Shortwave trough and developing surface low pressure will move
across the plains and to the north of the area Thursday. While a
sprinkle/shower is possible early Thursday across west central
Missouri, it will likely remain a dry and very warm day as a
strong cap/elevated mixed layer moves into the area from the
southwest. Record high temps are possible again Thursday.

A dry cold front moves through Friday morning. Models suggest an
isolated shower/storm is possible across the eastern Ozarks Friday
morning however chances look fairly low. Gusty west winds and dry
air advecting in Friday will lead to elevated fire weather
conditions.

Saturdays forecast highs in the 40s will be a shock to the system
compared to recent temps. High pressure moving in Saturday and
Sunday will lead to a dry weekend however. Southwest flow
commences early next week with showers and thunderstorm chances
returning. Temperatures will also moderate during this timeframe
back to above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Some stratus is holding on at KBBG and KSGF,
but satellite data indicates rapid clearing so VFR conditions are
expected in the near term. A sfc front will approach from the
northwest and then stall just north of the area as low pressure
moves into KS. Some lower mvfr clouds/visibility may be possible
toward 10z-12z as low level moisture increases, but for the most
part did not go quite that pessimistic late in the taf period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
There will be the potential for additional record highs through
mid week with highs in the middle to upper 70s...

Record HighsFeb 22nd Feb 23rd
Springfield 76/1995 79/1982
Joplin 87/199679/1982
Vichy- Rolla76/1995 81/1982
West Plains     74/1988     82/1996

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...DSA
CLIMATE...Burchfield


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