Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 141122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
622 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Upper level heights will rise across the region today and will
result in benign weather. There will be a few weak short wave
troughs embedded in the flow, but these troughs will do nothing
more than bring a few patches of high clouds. Temperatures today
will continue their uphill climb as surface winds turn around to
the south. Highs will make it into the middle and upper 80s.

We should then see a fairly decent temperature gradient tonight
with dry weather continuing. Lows over the eastern Ozarks should
fall into the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Areas west of I-49
may not fall out of the upper 60s as southerly winds stay up.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Low level pressure gradients will tighten on Friday resulting in
increasing south to southeast surface winds. Dry weather
conditions will continue as an upper level ridge axis slides east
over the area. Temperatures will once again be warm with highs in
the middle to upper 80s. It would not be surprising to see a
location or two hit the 90 degree mark along or west of the I-49

Southwesterly flow aloft will then overspread the Ozarks from
Friday night into the weekend. Models continue to indicate
isentropic upglide overspreading eastern Kansas and west-central
Missouri late Friday night and Saturday morning. Inspection of
forecast soundings reveals an awfully dry low level air mass, but
some impressive mid-level lapse rates. Parcels lifted at or just
above 700 mb would not have much in the way of inhibition if these
soundings pan out. Thus, we have gone with slight chance PoPs to
cover this low-end potential for high-based weak convection.

Meanwhile, a rather potent upper level trough will swing across
the northern Plains and drive a cold front south from Saturday
into Saturday night. This front should extend from northwestern
Missouri into northwestern Oklahoma by later Saturday night.
Showers and thunderstorms should develop along this feature, and
may then spread east and southeast into portions of the Ozarks
later Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures should remain above
normal this weekend, however thunderstorm activity may have a say
in eventual high temperatures.

Global models then show some deamplification to the upper level
pattern early next week with multiple short wave troughs tracking
through the region. The potential for scattered showers and
storms will therefore continue. We should hang onto above normal
temperatures with highs in the middle to upper 80s.

Models then deepen a trough over the western U.S. from the middle
to end of next week, thus putting our region on the eastern
periphery of deep southwest flow aloft. While organized short wave
energy may remain to our west, we will still stand the potential
for some afternoon and early evening thunderstorm activity.
Temperatures look like they will remain above normal through the
end of next work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Outside of some early morning fog and stratus over the far
eastern Ozarks, skies will be clear with VFR flight conditions
through the TAF period.




SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Raberding is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.