Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 142305

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
605 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Surface frontal boundary currently sagging into the northern
portion of the CWA. MCV from the overnight convection is currently
moving into Ozark county. Both are responsible for scattered
showers and thunderstorms occurring across the area. Otherwise, a
flat ridge located over the southeastern states at the surface and
across the entire southern US aloft.

The surface boundary is forecast to sag into northern Arkansas by
tonight. This should focus scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the southern half of the CWA overnight and along the MO-AR
border on Saturday. Primary threat from the stronger storms would
be wind gusts with training storms capable of producing locally heavy
rains. At this time...severe weather is not expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Over the weekend...the flat upper level ridge begins to build back
into the intermountain west while the surface high over the
Northern Plains builds southward. This will bring a slightly drier
air mass into the region initially with dewpoints dropping into
the mid 60s by Sunday. Highs over the weekend will be in the 80s
with lows mid 60s.

The return flow from the Gulf of Mexico should begin again on
Monday as the upper ridge gets tilted into the Northern Plains by
the next system moving onto the Pacific Coast. This will allow
temperatures to gradually warm back in to the mid 90s by middle to
late week. With the increased moisture...heat index values could
approach 100 degrees by late week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

A few scattered showers/storms in association with an MCV were
occurring across the southeast 1/2 of the CWA. Not expecting
anything at SGF/JLN but may have to include vcts or vcsh wording
for the BBG taf for the first couple hours of the 00z TAF. Drier
air will eventually work in from the northeast and should see
diminishing convection with the loss of daytime heating as well.
Light and variable wind will also be over the area for a good
portion of the TAF as high pressure moves in. May see some light
MVFR fog between 10-14z.




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