Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 231706
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1206 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2016

An upper level ridge is currently building over the region early
this morning and will be centered over the area by tonight. As an
upper level trough tracks east into the northern Plains on Sunday
the ridge will start to spread off Sunday night.

Warm and dry conditions will occur through much of this weekend
as highs warm into the upper 70s to the lower 80s both afternoons.
Sunny skies will occur today with partly cloudy skies occurring on
Sunday. Gusty southerly winds will develop Sunday afternoon as
surface low pressure develops across the central Plains ahead of
the upper level low. Wind gusts over 30 mph can be expected for
locations generally along and west of Hwy 65 Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2016

As the upper level low tracks east storms are expected to develop
to the west and northwest of the area along a cold front Sunday
evening. The front will then drop to the southeast into the area
Sunday night into Monday. The better lift and instability will
remain to the northwest and north of the area as the upper level
trough remains well north of the area. There will be an
instability gradient that sets up close to the far northwestern
portions of the area, so storms will be weakening as they move
southeast into the area, but a few strong storms may still be
possible generally northwest of a Pittsburg KS to Nevada MO line
Sunday night into early Monday morning. Coverage in storms will be
decreasing as the storms move into the area and will be isolated
to scattered in nature and many locations will remain dry. It is
also possible the storms dissipate just to the northwest of the
area.

As the front moves south through the area on Monday a few
thunderstorms will be possible, but overall most locations will
remain dry as coverage will be very limited with this activity.
Instability is expected to remain on the weak side, therefore,
not expecting a severe risk Monday.

Another upper level low will push into the northwestern U.S.
Sunday then dig to the south into the southwestern U.S. Monday
then lift to the northeast across the plains by Wednesday. As the
upper level low lifts to the northeast, the front that moves
south through the region Sunday night into Monday will lift back
to the north as a warm front Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Scattered storm chances will occur again along the front as it
lifts north.

Instability will then increase across the region on Tuesday ahead
of the approaching storm system, but a strong cap will also
develop across the area. The strong lift with this system will
remain well west of the area through the day on Tuesday, Therefore
most of the day should be dry after the warm front lifts north of
the area.

Storms are expected to develop across central Kansas
to the south into central Texas Tuesday evening along a cold
front. The front will then track east Tuesday night into Wednesday
Wednesday across the area. There is still some question on the
exact timing of the front but it will be at some point during the
day on Wednesday. There will be a severe risk with the storms
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday as the gulf moisture and an
unstable air mass will be in place across the area, large hail and
strong winds will be the main risk.

As the system moves off to the east mostly dry weather will occur
on Thursday. Then another system will begin to track into the
region Friday into the start of the weekend brining additional
chances for thunderstorms to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period as surface high
pressure continues to drift eastward and an upper level ridge
moves across the area. Main forecast concern is gusty winds
beginning after sunrise on Sunday as the next approaching system
begins to tighten up the surface pressure gradient. Winds should
develop gusts after 13z at KSGF/KJLN but believe that it will be
later in the afternoon...after the end of the forecast
period...for KBBG.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gaede



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