Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 152111

311 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 200 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

The stacked low moving across northern Missouri this afternoon
will continue its slow progression towards the Great Lakes region
this evening. The small window of clear, sunny skies that
preceded the cold front has made its way through all but the most
eastern portions of the region. Behind the front temperatures were
falling steadily into the 40s with winds gusting to 30 to 35 mph.

The region will remain on the breezy side through the overnight
hours as the cold airmass replaces the mild temperatures of the
last few day. This will work to keep much of the region under
cloudy skies after the brief appearance of the sun today. Overnight
temperatures will fall to around the freezing mark by tomorrow
morning as cold surface high pressure moves across the plains.

The colder airmass will bring more seasonable temperatures to the
Ozarks for the remainder of the week with high in the upper 30s to
middle 40s through mid week. Overnight lows will be in the middle
20s to lower 30s. This change in temperatures will potentially act
to bring some wintry precipitation to portions of the region
Wednesday night. Models are in good agreement with bringing
precipitation across the Ozarks Wednesday night, with temperatures
falling into the lower 30s some of the rain is expected to mix
with or change over to snow. This would be especially possible
across central and northern Missouri. The loss of cloud ice across
portions of western Missouri and eastern Kansas may allow for a
brief period when the rain would fall as light freezing rain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

Meandering split flow to result in uncertainty throughout this
forecast period...though believe the ECMWF has a better handle on
the overall sensible weather.

Precipitation on Thursday will likely be liquid in nature as
cloud ice diminishes from west to east. Given potentially
periodic moist southwest flow aloft and models showing run to run
variation in how they are ejecting energy from the southwest
trough...cannot completely rule out some light snow into the
weekend dependent on availability of upper level moisture.

A better chance for light rain or snow will come Friday night into
Saturday as the mean trough advects east across the Southern Plains.
12z ECM has trended farther south with the open wave leaving the CWA
under the northern edge of the precipitation field...which looks
reasonable considering the surface wave is depicted along the Gulf
Coast until the system pivots and interacts with a northern wave.
System will need to be monitored...though impact appears to be low at this


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

The brief break in the IFR to MVFR cloud cover will be short lived
today as the trailing cold front front last nights system moves
east. The front and its associated MVFR stratus deck will spread
east this afternoon and remain over the area through Tuesday
morning. Ceilings will be MVFR with no restrictions due to
visibilities expected.




LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Hatch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.