000
FXUS63 KSGF 162338
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
638 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

AN UPPER LOW WAS TRACKING ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW BLANKETED THE OZARKS WHICH WAS
RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS WAS INHIBITING DESTABILIZATION
OF THE AIR MASS. SHOWERS HAD SPREAD NORTH FROM ARKANSAS INTO FAR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE INHIBITED
DUE TO THE LIMITED VISIBILITY BUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE SURFACE
HEATING.

THE MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
65 WHERE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR. DENSE FOG POTENTIAL
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING
FOR A GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE HELP OF MORE SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AND AROUND THE MISSOURI OZARKS FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DESPITE HIGH INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY...THE
CAP SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES TO SLIM TO NONE ON SATURDAY WITH THE
CONVECTION STAYING OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

THE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AND THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AREA OF CONCERN FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY WILL BE DEVELOPING OUT TO OUR WEST ACROSS
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE
WEST OF OUR AREA...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A
STRONG CAP OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS REGION WILL KEEP MOST OF
SUNDAY UNEVENTFUL FOR THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWS DOWN AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE A
MID LEVEL SPEED MAX COMING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH/UPPER
LEVEL LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI. MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE UP TO 4000
J/KG AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ANALYST SHOW BULK SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 40 TO 50 KNOTS AND PLENTY OF SHEAR AND HELICITY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN. THIS IS STILL POINTING AT A SEVERE
EVENT POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL AREA FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.
SPC HAS THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN A DAY 5 OUTLOOK WITH ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DESOLVING OUT MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS WELL. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH MODELS BUT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY FOR AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MISSOURI OZARKS. QPF EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD TOTAL ONE TO THREE
INCHES FOR THAT EVENT FOR THE OZARKS WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME HYDRO
CONCERNS.

TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL ACTUALLY NOT COOL
DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AND STAY NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OR WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY TO BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

IFR CONDITIONS FEATURED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND DENSE FOG ARE
EXPECTED OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA.

SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.

ONE FINAL NOTE...MOST OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING...LEAVING US TO THINK THAT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY TONIGHT.

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOSTER
LONG TERM...GRIFFIN
AVIATION...CRAMER