Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 250447

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1147 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Storms are currently pushing east across far southern Missouri
and the far eastern Ozarks this afternoon. These storms developed
along a boundary that is slowly sagging south across the area.
This convection will continue to spread east and out of the area
by late this afternoon. A few isolated storms may continue across
far southern Missouri through sunset but should end quickly this
evening. A few strong storms will remain possible across south
central MO late this evening, but instability has weakened across
the area behind the convection, therefore, the severe risk for
this afternoon has all but ended else where. The main risk with
these storms will be cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy
rainfall leading to localized flash flooding risk across mainly
south central Missouri this afternoon.

Much of this evening will be dry across the forecast area. Storms
are expected to develop across western Kansas this evening. An
unstable air mass will be in place and there should be enough wind
shear to produce a complex of storms. Given the expected amount of
MUCAPE across Kansas overnight a forward propagating MCS is
expected to develop, which would push to the east to east
southeast and could push into the area late tonight into Wednesday
morning. The question is exactly where the MCS will develop and
track, and how far east will the MCS be able to make it. The main
risk with this activity will be frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes, locally heavy rainfall, and damaging wind gusts. This
activity will end by mid day. Will then have to watch for any
lingering outflow boundaries for isolated storms to redevelop
Wednesday afternoon, but this should not be widespread with most
locations being dry.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

The upper level low across the southwest U.S. will slowly lift off
to the northeast into the plains late this week then through the
area this weekend. Periods of thunderstorms will occur as this
system approaches from the west. There will be breaks in the rain
between rounds but multiple rounds are expected. Thursday may be
mainly dry but again will have to watch for outflow boundaries to
spread into the area and generate afternoon thunderstorms as
instability increases with the heating of the day.

Friday into the weekend coverages in storms should be better as
the system lifts into the Central Plains then tracks east across
the region. There will be a severe risk with this activity Friday
into the weekend, with mainly large hail and damaging winds. With
multiple rounds of storms expected, a flooding risk will also
occur Friday into the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Following convection in both central KS and northeast OK late this
evening. Models start to bring leading edge of rain shield into
the CWA after 08z with the main convection after around 09-10z
which was fairly in-line with 00z TAFS, so have not altered much
from original thinking. Convection in Kansas may affect mostly
areas north of our CWA, at least until outflow from MCS can move
into the area during the day Wednesday at which point it becomes
more of a mesoscale redevelopment problem. For now, will go with
original thoughts with main probability of convection between 08
and around 14z. Conditions outside of convection will mainly be in
VFR although some stray pockets of IFR have been shifting through
the area. Within convection will dip into MVFR/IFR tonight into
Wednesday morning.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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