Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 170524
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1124 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

...Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

A bitterly cold Arctic airmass will remain entrenched across the
Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas tonight as Arctic high
pressure transitions southeastward into the area. With diminishing
winds this evening expect temperatures to quickly tumble below
zero across much of the area. Lowered temperatures from much of
guidance and generally going near zero to around 5 below zero.
With diminishing winds the wind chill will not be as brutal as
this morning but still in the 5 to 10 below range.

The Arctic high will slide to the southeast on Wednesday bringing
a return southerly flow by afternoon which will begin a warming
trend. However Wednesday will remain cold.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

A substantial warming trend will occur from late week into this
weekend. Southerly winds will increase with high pressure becomes
centered across the southeastern U.S. while low pressure develops
across the Plains. Persistent warm air advection will erode the
snowpack with time. Temperatures will make a more substantial jump
Friday and Saturday once we lose the snow and a pronounced
southwesterly flow develops ahead of an upper level trough moving
into the western U.S.

A strong storm system will take shape across the Plains this
weekend as the upper level trough progresses eastward. Expect
increasing wind along with a good chance of showers and possibly
some thunderstorms Sunday as deep low pressure tracks into the
Midwest and a cold front sweeps across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Mainly clear skies and cold conditions are expected at the taf
sites overnight. With the cold airmass in place over the fresh
snow, there has been some reports of ice crystals forming in the
air, especially in the Joplin area. This may cause visibilities to
drop into the MVFR category at times overnight into early
Wednesday, mainly in the 3 to 5 mile range. Did include a tempo
group for Joplin only, as current visibilities are around 7 miles.
Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the taf
period. Winds will be light and variable, becoming more southerly
later on Wednesday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Raberding



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