Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 151909

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
209 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)

It was a quiet day with seasonal temperatures over extreme
southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. A mix of sun and clouds
were observed as light southerly breezes persisted.

For tonight, shower and thunderstorm chances increase as a weak
disturbance approaches from the southwest. We think most locations
will remain dry, however, some locations could get wet. No severe
weather is expected, and temperatures are expected to cool into
the upper 60s and lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)

An episode of strong to severe thunderstorms is now expected to
occur on Wednesday and Wednesday night. An unseasonably strong
speed max currently located over southern Arizona will approach
the Ozarks. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside
underneath this feature, bringing a sufficient environment for
organized thunderstorms.

As of now, the models suggest a southwest component to low level
winds, which would mitigate the tornado risk. However, damaging
wind gusts and large hail will be common with the most intense

Storms should linger into Wednesday night before exiting east by
Thursday morning. Dry conditions are expected most of Thursday and
well into Friday. However, additional thunderstorm development
will be possible late Friday afternoon and evening as another
disturbance approaches from the west.

It`s possible that low rain chances are in the offing from
Saturday afternoon and into early next week as a summertime ridge
attempts to build in from the south. Ultimately this will bring
warmer temperatures with readings in the middle to upper 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect MVFR ceilings through much of the afternoon. We do think
these ceilings will become VFR toward the late afternoon and into
the evening.

We will have to monitor for fog development again tonight,
although the most dense fog is expected to occur over south
central Missouri.

Surface breezes from the south should persist through the night.

Safe Travels.




LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Cramer is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.