Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 252025
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Elevated convection developed north of a warm front over parts of
southeast Kansas into southwest MO. Steep mid level lapse rates
and mid level storm updraft rotation supported some large hail with
some storms.

A warm front from just north of Tulsa to the sw corner of MO then
into north central AR is expected to continue to lift north to
along a Columbus KS-Springfield-West Plains line by 6 pm with a
sfc trough/dry line extending to the southwest from ne into central
OK. An outflow boundary is also present south of earlier elevated
convection. Capping evident in the warm sector based on METSAT
data, but synoptic scale lift will increase with an approaching
positively tilted trough from the west along with the right
entrance region with a jet max over the Midwest. Lift will help
break the cap with increased coverage in sfc based storms over ne
OK within the next couple of hours. Progged helicity supports
initial discrete supercell over ne OK transitioning to e-ene
training line segments given the orientation of both the sfc and
mid level winds. Large hail will be the most likely hazard with
lower wind/tornado threat along the southern edge of the
convection where stronger sfc based instability and mesovorts/line
segements can maintain themselves. A severe thunderstorm watch is
in effect through 10 pm for the southern 2/3rds of the cwfa.

Rainfall amounts will be a concern where storms can train this
evening. A hydro watch is already out and it`s location still
looks good. The heaviest rain is expected form 00z-06z (7 pm-1 am)
then tapering off from nw-se late tonight.

Chilly blustery conditions will occur as the front moves south and
east of the area Thursday.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Cold air will remain in place to end the week with a cold air mass
over much of the Midwest and eastern CONUS in a highly amplified
upper level pattern. A couple of shortwave (clipper like systems) are
expected to bring some light rain/snow Thursday night and again
Friday night. Temperatures will fall to near freezing both these
nights, even with cloud cover.

The upper level pattern transition back to a less amplified/more
zonal flow over the weekend with a warming trend. A weak
shortwave/associated sfc front will bring limited rain chances
late Sunday. A more substantial shortwave will approach the area
by day 6-7/Tuesday night-Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 200 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Scattered thunderstorms will affect
the area north of a warm front. More widespread storms are
expected after 22z as a disturbance over the Plains interacts
with the front and eventually pushes the front south and east of
the area later in the taf period. MVFR/IFR visibility in heavier
showers are expected with lower mvfr/ifr ceilings developing as
colder air moves into the region. Ceiling will improve and scatter
out from west to east over the region late in the taf period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ070-071-081>083-
     090>098-101>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA





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