000
FXUS63 KSGF 121740
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1240 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Low clouds hang on, primarily over the northeast (slightly more
than) half of the cwfa. Weak low level mixing underneath high
pressure helps the low clouds persist despite subsidence aloft.
HRRR was the near term primary tool used in near term cloud cover
which gradually shifts the clearing line north this morning and
early this afternoon. With sfc high pressure now starting to shift
off to the east we should see some better mixing with south winds
increasing somewhat today.

Fog is a near term concern where low clouds have cleared out and
we will continue to monitor. A modest east-southeast wind has
developed in some areas with the sfc high moving off, and some
mid/high clouds over southern MO may be helping to impede
radiation inversion/ground fog development processes a bit.

Otherwise, IF and where we can finally clear out, temperatures
will rebound today. This will be the beginning of a warming trend
to end the work week.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Will continue to monitor forecast trends for thunderstorms
Saturday night into early Sunday.

Fri-Sat: A longwave upper trough out over the western CONUS with
a downstream ridge over the southeast will keep our region in
southwest flow aloft Fri-Sat. A shortwave ejecting east into the
northern and central High Plains will help strengthen/sharpen a
sfc front from the Corn Belt/IA into the central Plains down to
the OK/TX Panhandles by Sat. This front will initially stay hung
up off to our west as warm and increasingly moist air moves
northward into our area. Temperatures Fri and Sat will reach well
up into the 80s.

Sat night-early Sunday: As the shortwave approaches, sfc low
pressure over IA will eject off to the northeast with a trailing
cold front progged to move through our cwfa. Abundant vertical
shear will combine with moderate instability (1000-1500 j/kg) over
eastern Kansas as the convergence along the front increases as it
moves east into our nw counties Sat evening. A line of storms
with a damaging wind threat may develop, mainly for our nw cwfa
(southeast KS/western MO counties) in the evening. Instability
weakens as the front moves southeast later in the night with a
reduced strong/severe storm risk. Remnant showers may last into
early Sunday for our eastern counties. Overall, we are not looking
at a long duration rain which will limit amounts, maybe near or
just over an inch northwest of I-44 w/lesser amounts to the
southeast.

Late Sunday-Sunday night: Cool high pressure will move in behind
the front Sunday and Sunday night. Some lows in the upper 30s may
be possible with the sfc high pressure expected overhead.

Mon-Wed: High pressure shifts off to the east. Cooler weather is
expected early in this period with a warming trend into the middle
of the week with a dry air mass.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Clear skies and light southerly breezes will persist.

Our next chances for rain will not occur until Saturday evening,
in response to an approaching cold front.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer