000
FXUS63 KSGF 020912
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

Dense fog developed across much of the area yesterday evening into
early this morning, expect for the far eastern portions of the
forecast area, though light fog was developing there early this
morning. The dense fog will persist early this morning before
dissipating during the mid and late morning hours. Will keep the Dense
Fog Advisory going as is, though will have to watch visibility
trends out east to see if the advisory needs to be expanded to the
rest of the forecast area.

Once the fog burns off this morning, temperatures will warm nicely
into the lower to middle 60s as a warmer air mass slides into the
region from the west.

Southerly low level winds will keep a moist low level air mass
over the area. As temperatures cool tonight into Tuesday morning,
fog development will once again be possible, however boundary
layer winds will be a tad stronger tonight which many limit
widespread dense fog. Never the less, there is still the potential
for at least patchy fog development tonight into early Tuesday
morning across the entire area.

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to advect a warm air mass
into the region tonight into Tuesday. 850 mb temperatures will
warm above 10C on Tuesday allowing highs to top out in the middle
to upper 60s. There could be a few locations that warm above the
70 degree mark. Southerly winds will also increase on Tuesday with
wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph expected at times.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

An upper level low will push into the northwestern CONUS today and
will then spread east into the Plains into the middle of the week.
This system will be accompanied by an arctic air mass. A cold
front will be pushed to the southeast and will pass through the
region on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Temperatures will be
cooler behind the front but the real cold temperatures associated
with this system will linger behind the front Thursday into
Thursday night. Still temperatures will likely fall or hold steady
behind the frontal passage on Wednesday afternoon.

Not expecting much in the way of rainfall to occur along the
front, other than a few scattered sprinkles or light showers, but
not expecting widespread rain Wednesday into Wednesday night.

A strong upper level jet will develop from the Plains to the
northeast into the Great Lakes region on Thursday. Upper level
energy from upper level trough to the west will also eject to the
east and interact with the upper level jet to produce large scale
lift across the region on Thursday into Thursday evening. Expect
widespread precipitation to develop within this area of lift, and
with the colder airmass spreading over the region, wintry
precipitation will occur. Cold enough temperatures will be in
place to support all snow for the onset of this precipitation
across the northern portions of the forecast area. There is
however more questions on the exact precipitation type across
southern Missouri.

Global models continue to show the cold dome to be deep enough to
push the warm nose to the south and support mainly all snow with
with the onset Thursday in Thursday evening. With an upper level
trough keeping southwest flow aloft across the region,  there is
still potential that the global models are not handling the warm
nose well and it could remain across far southern Missouri into
Thursday evening. Will maintain the potential for some ice
accumulations Thursday and Thursday evening, as we think there will
at least be a period of a mix of freezing rain and snow before the
cold temperatures push the warm nose to the south.

The upper level trough will begin to push east and will push the
warm nose to the south and all snow is expected across the entire
region Thursday night into Friday. Accumulating snow is still
expected across the entire area with the heaviest amounts falling from
Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. The snow will then taper
off from west to east Friday afternoon.

Bitter cold temperatures will overspread the region Friday into
the weekend. Highs Friday through Sunday will only warm into the
20s each afternoon. Lows each night during this time will fall
into the upper single digits to the lower teens. With a fresh snow
pack on the ground, temperatures may even drop a tad more.

Another upper level disturbance may then push out of the Plains
and across the area late this weekend. This system will not be as
strong a the mid/late week system, but with a very cold airmass
already in place any precipitation that can be produced will be
in the form of snow, and could produce some additional accumulations.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low ifr fog and ceilings over the
region will gradually lift and burn off from 15z-19z. A
weak/diffuse front over the area will lift lift back to the north
late in the taf period with light south winds. Some fog
redevelopment may occur again late in the taf period, but should
be more common just after the 03/06z cutoff.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR MOZ055>057-
     066>070-077>081-088>096-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA