


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
099 FXUS63 KSGF 071748 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1248 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorm chances (30-50%) this afternoon and evening. Localized heavy rainfall is possible. - Greater chances (50-70%) for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and evening. There is the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph in addition to localized heavy rainfall. - Additional rain chances (30-50%) persist through late week into next weekend. Highest chances occur in the afternoon and evenings. - Temperatures remain near normal for early July. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Today-Tonight: Quasi-zonal flow has setup across the central CONUS to begin the week, featuring a series of embedded shortwaves progged to translate through the flow. Ensembles vary a bit on exact timing, location, and intensity of each wave. However, there is still enough consistency to suggest daily scattered shower and thunderstorm changes through the week ahead. For today, scattered shower and thunderstorms chances (30-50%) return this afternoon and evening. The highest chances will be across southern MO, generally tied to the area of greatest moisture convergence to the south of a frontal boundary. Highs reach into the middle to upper 80s this afternoon, with a mix of sun and clouds. Localized heavy rainfall may accompany the strongest thunderstorms, with flooding limited to urban or flood-prone areas. HREF LPMM depicts pockets of 1 to 3 inches, with most areas seeing a half inch or less within thunderstorms. Low rain chances (10-30%) linger into tonight, though would be more isolated in nature. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Tuesday: On Tuesday, a bit stronger of shortwave slides through Middle Mississippi Valley. Ahead of this wave, a bit more of a favorable environment is progged to develop over the area. This will be characterized by ample instability (MUCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg) in the vicinity of some marginal shear (Effective bulk shear 20-25 knots). With increased forcing ahead of the shortwave, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop into multicell clusters through the afternoon. SPC has highlighted a Marginal Severe Weather Risk (1 out of 5) over the entire area on Tuesday to account for the potential of a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph would be the primary hazard within any of the stronger thunderstorm clusters. Additionally, localized heavy rainfall remains in play given the high PWATs (1.8 to 2.0 inch) and slow storm motions. Tuesday appears to be greatest coverage of shower and thunderstorm chances (50-70%). Expect activity to gradually dissipate through the evening with loss of daytime heating. Wednesday-Sunday: As we progress through mid to late week, the pattern continues to support daily rain chances. The lowest rain chances (10-30%) come on Thursday, with a bit higher chances (20-50%) returning into next weekend. All day washouts are not expected, though localized heavy rainfall remains possible where rain does occur. Temperatures remain near normal for early July. Daily highs in the upper 80s to near 90, and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Light and variable winds with a scattered low cu field across parts of the area early this afternoon, which will become more robust as scattered pulse showers and thunderstorms develop through the late afternoon hours. While confidence in overall pulse storm placement/development is low, confidence in favorable environment for storm development is highest furthest south, including at BBG. Lightning will be likely in strong storms that develop, bringing thunder at least to the vicinity of all terminals this afternoon. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Camden