Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 172001
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
301 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

...Warm and Humid Tuesday and Wednesday...Unsettled Weather and
Potential Heavy Rainfall End of the Week...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

A subtle mid level wave is moving across the region this
afternoon. Clouds have been abundant across the area keeping
temperatures in the 60s for the most part. A few isolated showers
have been noted on the radar this afternoon. All precip will end
by late evening and a quiet night is in the forecast.

Southern wind return tomorrow with partly cloudy skies. With
recent rainfall and warmer temperatures, it will "feel" kinda
humid tomorrow. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

A surface low will develop and deepen across the Central Plains on
Wednesday. Southern winds will increase across the area and some
wind gusts may approach 35 mph Wednesday afternoon especially
over the western areas. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s
and feel humid again Wednesday afternoon. A front will start to
move into the region Wednesday night into Thursday. A few isolated
strong to marginally severe storms will move into the area late
Wednesday night from northwest to southeast. Additional convection
will develop along and ahead of the boundary across southern
Missouri and the eastern Ozarks midday Thursday through Thursday
evening. Some small hail and gusty winds will be possible with the
strongest storms.

The attention will turn to where this frontal boundary stalls out
Thursday night through Saturday. It appears this boundary will
slow down and stall near the Arkansas and Missouri border. There
is potential for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms late
in the week. There will be the potential for heavy rainfall and at
least a marginal risk for flash flooding. There is increasing
potential for widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with localized
amounts up to 4 inches possible somewhere across southern Missouri
during that 3 day period. Temperatures will be on the cool side
by Friday and Saturday with highs only in the upper 50s and lower
60s.

A slow moving upper level low will move across the region on
Saturday and exit the region early on Sunday. The area will begin
to dry out early next week with temperatures will moderate upward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Low level moisture stays in place across the area through the
period on forecast moisture progs. May see cloud cover break up in
places this afternoon, but we are expecting stratus to redevelop
overnight across the area with MVFR and then IFR conditions
redeveloping. Conditions should then improve back to MVFR by the
mid morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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