Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 240821

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
321 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Low pressure system continues to deepen over the High Plains of
southeast Colorado early this morning, keeping a stout south wind
over the forecast area. Area VAD wind profilers show strong low
level jet winds of 40 to 50 knot at 925 mb. Storm development has
remained well to our west in vicinity of a dry line over western
KS/OK, and along the warm front over NE/IA.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Storm chances and winds have been the focus in the short term
forecast. First, along with our neighboring offices to the
southwest and west, we will be issuing a wind advisory for this
morning as strong low level jet winds mix down to the surface.
Will need to have later shifts assess whether or not an extension
is needed, but the latest forecast trends back off wind speeds
this afternoon.

Short term models continue to generate storms over our western
counties during the late morning/early afternoon time frame.
There`s increasing upper level diffluence over the region but a
decent capping inversion and little in the way of surface
convergence until later in the afternoon. So overall timing of
storm initiation remains a little questionable. Have started pops
in the grids a little earlier over our western counties but have
slowed the eastward progress of the precipitation. By mid to late
evening, will carry high pops all areas as main low pressure
system approaches the region and cap gradually erodes. Severe
storms remain possible with straight-line winds being the main
threat. Instability looks fairly marginal through tonight which
should limit hail potential.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Low pressure will be over the region Saturday morning so will
keep precipitation going through the afternoon before tapering off
in the evening as the storm system weakens and lifts northeast of
the Ozarks.

Looks like there will be additional chances for showers and storms
through the rest of the work week as a wave train of storm
systems moves across the central U.S. The next system to move
across the area will arrive Sunday night and move quickly across
the region on Monday. A deeper and slower moving system will drop
southeast from the Pacific northwest into the four corners region
on Tuesday and drift eastward into the southern Plains by
Wednesday night or Thursday morning.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

VFR conditions will continue into Friday morning before a line of
showers and storms move in by midday to Friday afternoon. This
line of showers and storms will bring brief drops to MVFR Friday
afternoon and have PROB30 groups for this potential. Southerly
winds will remain gusty and elevated with some gusts over 30 knots
likely for SGF and JLN for Friday. Due to strong winds and a low
level jet off the surface, have included non convective low level
wind shear for all TAFs through early Friday morning. Take offs
and landings may be a little bumpy for flights.


MO...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ066-077>081-

KS...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.



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