Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 250001 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
701 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 701 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Mid-level shortwave/mesoscale convective vortex continues to surge
northeast into the region at this hour. Quasi-linear convective
complex associated with this feature is now moving into the
eastern portion of the forecast area. "Best" CAPE is out ahead of
the line over the far eastern Ozarks, where MUCAPE approaches 1000
J/kg. Shear remains high both in the deep layer and low levels,
with low level shear increasing over the next few hours as the low
level jet increases.

The good news is that this system continues to accelerate to the
northeast, most likely exiting before the low level jet begins to
peak. As a result, our severe threat will be for the next hour or
so, with just lingering showers the rest of the evening. The main
risk of severe continues to be an isolated tornado or localized
wind gust.

IR satellite imagery is showing a fast advancing clearing line
from our southwest. If trends continue, there will be a risk for
fog overnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A shortwave trough will track north from Arkansas and across
southern Missouri tonight. Rain and thunderstorms will increase
through the evening with the primary severe storm risk across
south central Missouri where at least modest destabilization had
occurred. Given the strength of the low level shear and presence
of more than ample low level CAPE the risk for isolated tornadoes
will continue into the evening across south central Missouri.

Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread much
of the area this evening with the highest rates across south
central Missouri. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to cover
the entire forecast area through tonight.

It appears we will see a break in the action Monday in the wake of
exiting shortwave. However an isolated shower or storm cannot be
ruled out during the day.

Another shortwave trough will approach from the southwest Monday
night bringing another round of showers and storms into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The unsettled weather pattern will continue the remainder of the
week as a series of shortwave troughs traverse through a quasi-
zonal flow. There will be intermittent chances of showers and
thunderstorms but there are no strong signals for severe weather.
Given the increasingly saturated conditions the flood potential
will have to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 701 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Active weather continues across the region. For JLN/SGF/BBG, the
main concerns this evening will be scattered showers and MVFR
cigs. Winds will be variable as a quick moving area of low
pressure moves overhead. Fog concerns are increasing overnight
tonight. Clearing noted on IR satellite imagery over the southern
Plains is advancing to the northeast. This clearing has a good
chance of spreading over the TAF sites. If this does indeed occur,
fog is expected. At this time, IFR visibility has been introduced
and will update as trends continue to unfold this evening. Any
linger clouds/fog should clear by mid/late Monday morning. Overall
a quieter day is expected with gusty south winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan




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