000
FXUS63 KSGF 171152
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
652 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

WE WILL BE MONITORING VISIBILITIES EARLY THIS MORNING AS WE ARE
SEEING BOTH STRATUS BUILD DOWN ALONG THE OZARK PLATEAU AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.
WE HAVE SEEN SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG UP TO THIS POINT. IF THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG EXPANDS...WE WILL NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE...SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW THAT
BROUGHT LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...AND DRAG THE
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH IT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OVER THE OZARKS TODAY.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 AS CLOUD COVER
BEGINS TO DIMINISH. THE EASTERN OZARKS SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW LINGERS THROUGH THE DAY.

A GOOD SOUTHERLY FETCH OF WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A MORE GULF
LIKE AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION AND KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN FROM FALLING OUT OF
THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE OZARKS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND WILL HELP LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
RESIDUAL CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEAK AND LIMITED IN COVERAGE
AS CAPE AND AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WORK TO INHIBIT CONVECTION.

FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE
AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM WESTERN KANSAS TO
WESTERN IOWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE
OZARKS WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SET UP IN
ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. MODELS ARE INDICATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT BEGINNING ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS MOVING OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS SWINGS EAST IN A NEGATIVE TILT. CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000-3000
J/KG RANGE IN ADDITION TO GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD
THE OZARKS DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A BIT OF AN ISSUE WITH THE TIMING AND MODE
OF THE SYSTEM...WHETHER IT WILL BE AN MCS OR SUPERCELL EVENT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING IS STILL IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THERE WITH
HAIL...WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM AND
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO THE OZARKS. THIS WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT SHOULD BE
AVAILABLE FROM CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...WOULD ALLOW FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS PLAINS INTO
TUESDAY AND PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OZARKS TUESDAY EVENING AND DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO MOVE OVER THE PLAINS AND THE OZARKS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS PRODUCING IFR TO MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID DAY. IMPROVING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS FROM MVFR TO VFR WILL OCCUR FROM 17-20Z FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A RETURN TO MVFR VISIBILITIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALLOWS FRO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ066>068-
     077>081-088>097-101>105.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...HATCH