Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 190427
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1127 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Upper level low situated over the southwestern states with an
upper level ridge over the Northern Plains. A second low is
currently making its way out of the Gulf of Alaska and is
expected to become cut off over the Pacific Northwest by Friday.
As it does...it will eject the southwest low out into the Southern
Plains.

This system will affect our weather beginning Thursday afternoon
into evening. Greatest PoPs will be located along the Missouri-
Arkansas border with the best chances during the overnight hours
on Thursday with the system exiting the area by late Friday
afternoon. Rainfall amounts will generally range between one-
tenth and one-quarter inch with maybe an isolated rumble of
thunder.

After yet another chilly night tonight...highs on Thursday should
approach 70 and perhaps make it into the lower 70s by Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

With the exit of this system...high pressure both at the surface
and aloft will build into the region and allow temperatures to
return to more seasonal levels. The weekend looks good with highs
approaching 80 by Sunday.

By Monday...a broad upper level trough of low pressure develops
over the western states with a series of upper level impulses
rotating through. A surface front develops in the lee of the
Rockies on Sunday and stalls out over eastern Kansas by Monday
afternoon.

This will set up an unsettled weather pattern for the remainder of
the forecast period. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms
Monday through Wednesday. Severe chances are uncertain at this
time but will need to continue to monitor. Temperatures will be
slightly above normal with highs near 80 and overnight lows in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period. Will see mid level
ceilings increase during the day Thursday with the approach of an
upper level shortwave. Wouldn`t rule out a few showers during the
last 6 hours of 06z TAF, but at this point will not include in
forecast with low probability.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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