Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 270041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
641 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

...Short Term and Aviation Updates for Fog...

Issued at 640 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Have gone ahead and issued a Dense Fog Advisory for southern MO
through 9 AM tomorrow. An area of remnant stratus and fog from
earlier today quickly expanded once the sun began to set, with
visibilities in many areas falling to between 1/2 and 1/4 mile.
Additional fog is likely across south central MO, though right now
it is unclear whether that will be an expansion of the current
area of stratus/fog, or new development.

Visibilities will likely vary considerably tonight, especially
within the more complex terrain of the Ozark Plateau. Visibility
along ridge tops may be especially low, as stratus build down will
be more likely along the higher terrain. These rapid visibility
changes will likely result in an additional hazard for drivers


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Low clouds and fog were slow to burn off today but all areas
except portions of our south central Missouri counties have
cleared with temperatures rising into the upper 40s to mid 50s by
mid afternoon.

Should see some patchy dense fog develop over our southeast
counties tonight where temp/dewpt spreads remain low. Otherwise it
should be a relatively mild night with cloud cover and wind speeds
increasing from west to east with the approach of the west coast
storm system. Evening shift will need to watch fog trends
over south central MO as this area may approach advisory criteria
later tonight.

Precipitation is still expected to develop mainly during the
afternoon as the initial mid level shortwave trough moves across
the central Plains. Precipitation during the afternoon should be
mainly over western MO/southeast KS with accumulations being
relatively light, 0.10 inch or less on average.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

A stronger shortwave trough tracks across the desert southwest
Sunday night before spreading northeast across OK/MO on Monday.
QPF output from NAM and GFS show higher amounts over our southeast
counties with better tap into low level moisture, so have bumped
up rainfall amounts to around 0.75 inch over our
Oregon/Shannon/Howell counties. Otherwise will continue chances
for thunderstorms through Monday night with some weak instability
over the region. Severe storm threat still looks pretty low.

Temperatures will remain rather mild with highs topping out in the
upper 50s to lower 60s through Tuesday. The main cold front
associated with this system should push east of the area by
Tuesday night and drop temps into the 30s Wednesday morning.

The rest of the week looks dry and with near to slightly below
normal temperatures and another shot of cooler air behind another
cold front on Thursday night or Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 506 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

...640 PM Update...
Issued at 640 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Fog and stratus rapidly expanded north with sunset, socking in the
SGF terminal with 1/2 to 1/4 mile vis and sub-500 ft ceilings. Some
variation with vis is possible, though would expect flight cats to
remain IFR or LIFR through the night.

...Previous Discussion...
Issued at 506 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

An area of IFR fog/mist and stratus is
expected to develop across south central Missouri tonight. Have
maintained lower vis for BBG through the night to account. The SGF
terminal will likely be on the western edge of the IFR conditions,
so while VFR is maintained in the TAF for now, confidence is on
the low side.

MVFR cigs are then expected to build into the area from the west
Sunday morning, with gusty south winds. Gusts will be highest at
JLN, with readings approaching 30 kt.


MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for MOZ070-071-081>083-



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