Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 160501
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1201 AM CDT Sat May 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015
A weak impulse is currently moving across the Missouri Ozarks and
lifting northeastward. Scattered convection has developed ahead of
the impulse across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks where
instability is better. This convection will continue to move
northward. There appears to be a little subsidence behind the
exiting upper level impulse. Additional isolated to widely scattered
convection is possible elsewhere through the evening hours where the
sun is able to add some instability but it will be limited. Short
range models like the HRRR and RUC13 keep most of the convection
redevelopment towards central Missouri this evening.
Later this evening...for the most part the weather should be fairly
quiet. Will mention the possibility of some patchy fog near large
lakes and river valleys by sunrise in the morning. Forecast cape for
tomorrow approach 2500 J/KG but the deep shear will be limited
around 20 to 25 knots for most of the day over the Ozarks. The
better dynamics will be just to our west across Kansas and Oklahoma
for severe convection. Scattered convection will develop around the
Missouri Ozarks by midday to afternoon on Saturday with the best
potential over south central Missouri.
Models indicate that the leftover severe convection that develops
across Kansas and Oklahoma will move into southeast Kansas and
extreme western Missouri late Saturday evening and overnight. There
is a slight risk for severe weather Saturday evening for these areas
with the main threat being damaging wind gusts and large hail.
MUCape will be between 1500 to 2000 J/KG with Bulk shear values
increasing to 40 knots by Saturday evening over southeast Kansas
and western Missouri. Line segments and clusters of convection is
expected moving eastward from Kansas and Oklahoma into the western
Missouri Ozarks. Total QPF this weekend is expected on average
between 0.5 to 1.0 of an inch.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015
The main upper level support and energy moves away from the area on
Sunday and Sunday night. Models indicate the best potential for
additional convection develop on Sunday afternoon and evening will
be south and east of I-44 across south central Missouri. There
is a very limited potential for a couple strong storms over south
central Missouri Sunday evening. A cold front finally makes some
progress into the area by Monday. There will be a chance for
showers and storms across south central Missouri before the front
clears through the area.
Cool and drier air will move in for Monday night through Tuesday
evening. Temperatures will be below average. The weather pattern
becomes unsettled again by the middle and end of next week.
Another broad trough develops across the western U.S. and weak
shortwaves and impulses will move across the central Plains and
Midwest starting Wednesday through Friday with scattered rain
chances and thunderstorms.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015
An area of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will spread
north into portions of southern Missouri late tonight and early
Saturday morning. MVFR ceilings will also accompany this
activity...especially around Branson. There is even some potential
for IFR ceilings across south-central Missouri. Confidence in this
scenario remains low enough to preclude IFR from the TAFs.
Additional scattered thunderstorm development is then expected
from late Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon across
western Missouri. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be expected
with any thunderstorms. Outside of thunderstorms, surface winds
will increase out of the south on Saturday and will become gusty.
Yet another round of thunderstorms will then be possible across
western Missouri late Saturday evening towards the end of the TAF