Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 171926

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
126 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)

It was a cloudy January day over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures struggled to warm out of the 40s,
while westerly breezes continued.

Split flow was converging over Missouri today as a closed off
upper low was lurking over the desert southwest. This pattern will
offer dry conditions through tonight with overnight lows in the

For Wednesday, some sunshine will bring temperatures back into the
50s. Wednesday will be a nice mild day for what is typically the
coldest few weeks of the year. Some shower activity will occur
down in Arkansas, but we`re not confident that activity will make
it into southern Missouri.

However, by Wednesday night, areas such as Oregon, Howell, and
Shannon counties will be in jeopardy of receiving a little bit of
rain. If this rain can get into south central Missouri Wednesday
night, it will shift east by Thursday morning. All other areas
will remain dry.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

On Thursday and Thursday night, the upper low axis will be moving
directly over southern Missouri. We are not anticipating any rain
with this axis as the airmass remains fairly dry.

The upper low begins to shear out and drifts to the north in time,
allowing warm southerly breezes to persist. Temperatures on Friday
and Saturday will warm into the 60s.

The area remain under upper cyclonic flow as southerly winds
maintain a warm air at the surface through Saturday. Although by
Saturday night and Sunday, forcing increases bringing us our next
decent chances for rain across the Ozarks. As of now, there is not
much of a signal for any winter weather since the Canadian
airmasses stay off to the north.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: IFR or low end MVFR ceilings will try to lift
slowly over the next few hours. Some clearing from the west may
also try to briefly occur as high pressure moves in. Some stratus
and fog redevelopment is expected after 06z with light low level
winds and abundant moisture. Guidance hits KSGF and KBBG the
hardest with fog and low clouds late in the taf period.




LONG TERM...Cramer
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