Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 262331 AAA

631 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

Issued at 631 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

Forecast altered a bit to account for isolated to widely scattered
showers/storms this evening. The effective front (wind shift) is
just about to clear southern Missouri. Surface observations across
the region indicate a few more "kinks" in the low level flow with
the dewpoint drop lagging well behind the main front. As a result,
bands of convection will continue to slide south early this
evening, falling apart after dark as instability subsides and high
pressure begins to build into the area.

Will need to watch for patchy fog development during the overnight
hours given the lag time associated with the incoming dry air,
especially on the top of the plateau.


.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon Through Tonight)
Issued at 317 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

A cold front is currently tracking south through the area this
afternoon and will continue to track south through the area this
afternoon. Scattered storms will remain possible along this front
across far southern Missouri. The severe risk is very low across
the area as the storms that occurred this morning has really
worked over the atmosphere which has limited instability and the
severe risk.

An upper level shortwave is currently pushing south across
northern Missouri. The 850mb front is near the I-70 corridor and
additional scattered showers and storms are developing along these
features. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible across the
area into this evening, but the coverage will decrease with time
and this activity will dissipate fairly quickly this evening. No
severe weather will occur with this activity as instability is
weak across the area.

A cooler air mass will start to spread into the area overnight
as lows drop into the lower 60s tonight. Some patchy fog will be
possible as moist grounds from the recent rain interacts with the
cooler air mass. However, winds may remain high enough to limit
fog development.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

Cooler conditions will occur on Saturday as highs warm into the
middle 70s to near the 80 degree mark under mostly sunny skies.
Sunday will be very similar to Saturday but a few degrees warmer.
No precipitation is expected on Saturday through much of the day

Sunday night an upper level disturbance will ride south through an
upper level northwest flow pattern into the region. The timing of
this feature will be overnight after peak heating and instability
will be limited and not expecting much of a severe weather risk.

A warming trend will occur during the early and middle portions of
the week. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90 are expected to return
on Tuesday with another warm day on Wednesday. Another upper level
disturbance will ride through the northwest flow and into the
region Wednesday into Thursday bringing additional shower and
storm chance to the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

Another thin band or two of showers will move through the region
over the next few hours, affecting mainly SGF/BBG. This activity
should fall apart after sunset with quiet weather expected from
then onward. Will be monitoring for fog development during the
overnight hours. With the drier airmass lagging behind the cold
front that just move through the region by several hours, there
looks to be a window of opportunity for fog and/or stratus, with
IFR potential. Heading into Saturday, VFR conditions are expected
with northerly winds.




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