Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 132309

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
609 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Southerly winds will continue to bring a warm and moist airmass
into the region through this evening and into Saturday. A few
clouds will move across the region in response to the heating and
increasing moisture.

Overnight temperatures will only fall into the 60s to near 70 for
many locations. The breezy southerly winds will remain as upper
level southwesterly flow continues and a broad upper level trough
moves into the plains through the day Saturday.

Temperatures on Saturday will climb to near record highs for some
locations as strong warm air and moisture advection continues
through the day in advance of the front.

Surface low pressure will move across the plains into Iowa as a
cold front is pushed across the plains and towards the Ozarks.
Showers and storms may begin to impact the region as early as
Saturday afternoon/evening for areas from Fort Scott to Warsaw.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

The front itself is expected to push through the region Late
Saturday night through Sunday morning. There remains the
potential for strong to severe storms with the main concern being
damaging straight line winds. Current indication are for a line of
storms to develop along or just post frontal and push through the
area, exiting southeast of the Ozarks by midday Sunday.

Colder, more seasonable temperatures will filter in behind the
front with Sundays highs only around 60 degrees. Temperatures
through the rest of the week will see a very slow warming trend
with afternoon highs by the end of the week in the lower to
middle 70s.

Sprawling surface high pressure and northwesterly upper level
flow will bring a dry weather patter to the region for all of next
week and likely through next weekend as well.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all terminal sites through the
forecast period. A surface cold front is currently situated from
northern Missouri into southcentral Kansas. The nocturnal jet
ahead of this front will create some LLWS conditions at KSGF/KJLN
during the overnight hours.

Winds will be breezy beginning mid morning through the afternoon with
some gusts around 20 kts possible. Convection near of the front
will approach the northwestern portions of the area late Saturday
afternoon but will not affect the terminal sites until after this
forecast period.




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