Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 182344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
644 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

An area of thunderstorms has developed today across south central
Missouri, along an upper level shear axis that is passing through
the area. This convection should continue to slowly work its way
east this afternoon, and dissipate by this evening.

Elsewhere, seasonably warm temperatures and mostly sunny
conditions have prevailed. Clear skies are expected for the area
overnight tonight, with low temperatures ranging from the upper
50s over the far eastern Ozarks to mid to upper 60s over
southeastern Kansas.

On Monday, upper level ridging will strengthen across Texas,
setting the stage for well-above average temperatures for the
workweek. Temperatures on Monday look to rise into the upper 80s
and low 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Similar temperatures to Monday`s can be expected through at least
Thursday, with upper 80s across most of the area, and southeastern
Kansas and far western Missouri warming into the low 90s.
Overnight lows will be quite warm as well, with readings in the
mid to upper 60s. Records this time of year are generally in the
mid 90s; we likely won`t warm that much, but won`t be far off.

Medium to extended range guidance continues to suggest that a
strong shortwave will swing across the Rockies sometime in the
Friday-Sunday time period. However, models seem to be having a
fair amount of trouble with not only the timing and strength of
the shortwave, but also the strength of the ridge over the
southeastern US. For now, these factors have resulted in a slower
frontal passage next weekend (perhaps into next week), as well as
considerable uncertainty about how much cooler and less humid the
post frontal airmass will be.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Clear to mostly clear skies will occur across the region tonight
and into Monday. Where rain fell today, light patchy MVFR fog
will occur across portions of south central Missouri and impact
the Springfield and Branson terminals for a few hours around
sunrise. Otherwise, flight conditions will be fine.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Boxell
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