Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 162344
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
644 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

...00z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Low level moisture will continue to increase as surface high
pressure retreats to the east and a front develops across the
Plains. Stratus will overspread the area tonight and expect patchy
if not areas of drizzle later tonight.

The front will drop southward across the region Friday as an upper
level trough digs into the Great Lakes region. Isolated to
scattered showers will develop along and just of the front. Can`t
rule out an isolated thunderstorm but the lack of instability will
limit the chance for storms. Overall expect measurable rainfall to
be spotty in nature.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

A progressive quasi-zonal pattern will set up this weekend into
next week.

Surface high pressure will build into the Ozarks region Saturday
bringing the return to dry and cool weather. However southerly
winds and the chance of elevated convection will return Sunday as
warm air advection develops and a warm front lifts northward.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms will linger into Monday
as the next cold front slides into the area. Again no severe
weather is expected at this time.

The upper pattern will again become more amplified later next week
as an upper trough transitions across the Rockies. This system
will bring a more substantial chance for thunderstorms later next
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

A fairly messy aviation forecast expected across the region
through this TAF cycle. First, southeasterly winds will be brisk
through the evening and into the overnight. Did decide to add LLWS
into the forecast as a southwesterly low level jet continues to
increase tonight. To start, VFR sky conditions for the three
terminals will quickly drop off overnight as a low stratus deck to
our south continues to move northward.

MVFR and perhaps IFR conditions are expected from later tonight
through Friday. Drizzle and reduced visibilities can also
expected through the late night and last through about midday or
so Friday. Conditions are expected to gradually start improving
toward the end of the cycle.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye



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