Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 261738

1238 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

A stationary front remains draped near the I-70 corridor early
this morning and continues to provide a focus storm development as
a shortwave trough moves across eastern Kansas. Further to the
west...another storm complex has developed over western Kansas
ahead of another shortwave trough. These disturbances will help
nudge the I-70 front south across the forecast area through the
day. Will keep higher end precipitation chances going through the
day. Temperatures may get a little warmer than previously expected
along the AR/southeast KS borders. Otherwise will keep the lower to
mid 80s going for max temperatures.

Precipitation chances will decrease from northwest to southeast
through the evening as the front and upper level disturbances
shift southeast of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

Much drier conditions are expected for Saturday as high pressure
spreads southward from the upper Midwest. Temperatures and
dewpoint temps should average around 10 degrees lower than todays

From Sunday through the middle of the workweek...upper level
northwest flow becomes well established...bringing continued
cooler conditions. The latest models show a clipper system moving
across the area on Sunday night and Monday. This will bring us a
fairly quick shot of storms with the highest chances mainly
northeast of Springfield.

Another clipper system may impact the area around
Wednesday/Thursday. Exact timing this far out on these type of
systems is pretty tricky, so went with mainly slight chance to
chance pops through midweek.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Biggest forecast concerns are on
handling the convection this afternoon at the taf sites and then the
potential for post frontal stratus development tonight.

Surface front remained across central Missouri early this afternoon with
the short term models pushing this southward through the area this
afternoon and then south of the taf sites this evening. Strongest
storms are expected to the southeast of the taf sites with the
rain ending from west to east by mid afternoon. Still expect
variable ceilings this afternoon from VFR outside of convection to
IFR in some of the convective elements in and near the taf sites.

Short term models continue to show the potential for post frontal
stratus development tonight, especially at the KSGF and KBBG
aerodromes. Will continue to mention this in the tafs with a tempo
broken MVFR ceiling. Some guidance is showing IFR conditions so
cannot rule that out. Drier air then advects in towards the end of
the taf period with clearing skies.




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