Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 131732
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1132 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

A more substantial warming trend will begin today as southerly
winds become established. Clouds will be on the increase response
to increasing moisture advection and the approach of a jet
streak/upper level disturbance.

These features along with developing isentropic upglide will bring
the chance of showers mainly to south central Missouri. A few
rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out given some modest
instability.

With warmer temperatures no winter precipitation is expected
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Spring-like temperatures are still expected Wednesday into Thursday
as southerly winds increase. High temperatures will climb into the
60s both days and cannot rule out a few locations reaching 70
degrees on Thursday.

A strong cold front will arrive Thursday night as a broad low
amplitude trough transitions eastward across the the northern
CONUS. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will with the
frontal passage, especially along and south of the Interstate 44
corridor where moisture quality will be better.

Strong cold air advection will follow the frontal passage on gusty
northerly winds late Thursday night into Friday. This may bring a
brief transition to light snow before the precipitation ends late
Thursday night into Friday morning. However little if any
accumulation is expected.

Forecast certainty decreases this weekend into next week as a more
active southwesterly flow evolves in response to a developing
upper level trough out west. This will bring milder temperatures
back into the region along with periodic chances of precipitation
into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

A 4-5 kft deck will continue to move through Today. Cant rule out
an hour to two of MVFR however primarily VFR conditions are
expected until the overnight hours when a MVFR deck will move in
and build down to IFR by morning. Cant rule out some showers
during the overnight hours however confidence is not high and will
continue with vicinity showers for now. Some patchy fog will also
be possible by morning, especially at JLN. Low level wind shear
will also be possible tonight at all the TAF sites. Winds will
remain out of the south for the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Burchfield



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