Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 200453 AAB

1153 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Surface high pressure had shifted to the east providing a return
to southeasterly flow. A pool low level moisture as evidence of
rather extensive stratus/strato cumulus field lingered across the
Ozarks region.

With this in mind will have to monitor for patchy fog tonight
particularly across the eastern Ozarks. Expect at least patchy fog
across the eastern Ozarks and far southern Missouri in closer
proximity of the surface high pressure ridge. Progged hydro lapse
rates are also favorable for fog development.

May deal with variable cloud cover again Saturday but expect more
sunshine as a result of deeper mixing. This will also lead to
warmer temperatures.

Expect most if not all locations to remain dry Saturday before a
cold front arrives Saturday night. However isolated convection may
move into central Missouri by late afternoon as well as develop
across far southwestern Missouri within deeper moisture plume.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

The aforementioned cold front will push southward into the area
Saturday night as a pronounced shortwave dives into the Great Lakes
Region. Frontal scale forcing along with the support of an upper
level jet streaked will promote the development of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Given the time of day the instability will be
somewhat limited and organized severe weather is not expected.

The front will push south of the area Sunday morning bringing an
end to the chance of convection. A cooler and drier Canadian airmass
will overspread the area Sunday into early next week.

A warming trend will return during the middle and later portion of
next week as the upper ridge builds back over the region. Medium
range models suggest a trough will attempt to move through this
ridge before dampening out. So at this time it appears dry weather
along with pleasant temperatures will prevail next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Going forecast largely on track as MVFR light fog will be possible
at all TAF sites the rest of tonight. This will lift by mid
morning and VFR conditions will persist the remainder of the
forecast with winds becoming southwesterly with time. Next
forecast concern will be tomorrow evening as scattered showers and
storms line up along an incoming cold front. Coverage is not look
especially high with this front, but such details will better
reveal themselves with time.




LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.