Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 171921

221 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Cold front has shifted to along the Missouri/Arkansas border early
this afternoon. Convection has just initiated along and ahead of
the boundary in far northern Arkansas into the bootheel region of
Missouri. At this point, planning on maintaining low end isolated
thunderstorm chances for far southern Missouri this
afternoon/evening to account for the vicinity of the front and
higher instability right along the border. Main convective
activity however will be further southeast in association with the
front and upper level disturbance over the Tennessee valley region.

Sun has helped to burn off the clouds in the southwest half of the
CWA today, but remain in the northeast and have kept temperatures
down there.

Will have another low end chance of convection in the Monday night
to Tuesday time frame, but overall rain chances through the entire
period look to be on the low side. Our main focus for the upcoming
7 day period will be with increased temperatures and humidity as
an upper level ridge begins to build over the lower and mid
Mississippi valley region by mid to late week.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Frontal boundary will be along the Missouri Arkansas border this
afternoon/evening and with increased instability along the front,
will maintain isolated thunderstorms across far southern Missouri
into the mid evening hours.

Shortwave energy will pass to the south of the area on Monday with
a stronger shortwave across the upper Mississippi valley region
leaving our CWA in between systems and generally dry throughout
the day. Daytime temperatures will range from the mid 80s in the
eastern Ozarks to the mid 90s over far southwest Missouri into
extreme southeast Kansas with heat index values from the upper 90s
to around 101 possible there.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Another weak front and upper level energy will move into the area
late Monday night into Tuesday, however the bulk of the upper
level energy will remain north of our area and only carrying low
end pops with this feature for now.

After that, we will begin to see height rises as an upper level
ridge begins to build over the lower into mid Mississippi valley
area which will likely keep teh storm track to our north and see
temperatures rising back into the mid to upper 90s for mid week
into next weekend. Heat index values will likely be from the upper
90s to around 104 through that period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Stratus wrapping around upper low departing into Illinois has
slowed and August sun appears to be winning out. BBG will have a
couple more hours of MVFR then all three TAF sites will be VFR
into the night. Extent of fog and maybe even the development of
low stratus at SGF and BBG as temperatures cool to critical
levels before weak warm advection resumes in the morning.

A few TSRA may be possible along the remnant frontal boundary near
the Arkansas border late this afternoon into this evening though
confidence in coverage precluded noting in TAFs at this time.
Would expect IFR and maybe even LIFR conditions later tonight in
Branson if the activity were to reach this area.




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Runnels is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.