Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 160503
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1103 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)

Some much needed sunshine broke out across extreme southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. Temperatures
responded by warming into the 60s, while north to northwest
breezes persisted. Canadian high pressure was building in from the
northwest, which will keep the weather quiet through at least
Thursday.

South winds return on Thursday as high pressure advances off to
the east within the fast zonal flow aloft. Highs Thursday will
range from the middle 50s to the middle 60s, with the warmer
readings in far southwest Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Gulf moisture will overspread southern Missouri late Thursday
night. Despite much QPF in model data, this type of set up
usually leads to some isolated and scattered showers. Most
locations Thursday night will remain dry, but don`t be surprised
to see some showers break out.

Strong warm air advection will be in place on Friday boosting
temperatures into the upper 60s and lower 70s. A cold front will
then approach the region Friday night, potentially triggering a
few thunderstorms.

None of the models develop enough instability for organized
thunderstorms on Friday night. However, with dew points in the
lower 60s, model trends on Friday night`s instability level bears
watching. Therefore, at this time we`ll keep severe thunderstorms
out of the HWO.

This front will shift east of the Ozarks early Saturday morning
bringing in a cooler airmass for the rest of the weekend.
Temperatures will drop into the lower 30s early Sunday morning,
with Sunday`s highs only reaching the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1101 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Surface ridge was building into the area this evening and will
continue overnight. Quick west-northwesterly flow aloft was
bringing some mid/high level clouds into the area, but should
remain VFR through the period. A light and variable wind overnight
with the high pressure will become more southeasterly by mid to
late morning Friday as the high shifts to the east.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg


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