Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 190453

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1153 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

..00Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)

The dog days of summer are here, and look to continue through the
rest of the week. An intense summertime high pressure system will
strengthen over the nation`s midsection, causing heat indices to
exceed 100 degrees on a daily basis.

We decided to upgrade areas within the lower elevations of the
Osage River Valley to an Excessive Heat Warning. This includes
locations along and north of a line from Fort Scott Kansas to Lake
of the Ozarks. Look for heat indices to range from 103 to 108
degrees for three consecutive afternoons or more.

Elsewhere across the Ozarks high country, slightly lower heat
indices are expected, keeping these areas within the Heat

No precipitation is expected through tonight, with lows only
falling into the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)

With the summertime high in place, hot and dry weather is expected
for nearly all locations. However, there are increased chances for
isolated pulse thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons. Again, most locations will remain dry, although some
spots may get lucky enough to receive a brief downpour.

Taking a look at the days 5 through 10 model solutions. The GFS
shows no indications of relief from this heat wave. However, the
ECMWF brings a cooler and drier airmass across southern Missouri
toward the beginning of next week. Northwest flow commences and
brings some rain chances to the area as well.

As of right now we are leaning toward the hotter and drier GFS


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

VFR conditions should prevail on Tuesday, along with continued
southerly winds. Sct cu development is again likely from mid to
late morning through the early evening. At this time, it appears
that the bulk of any thunderstorm potential will remain east of
the terminals.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ058-070-071-077-

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ055>057-

KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ097-101.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ073.



LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Boxell is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.