Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 051204

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
704 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0231 AM CDT MON OCT 05 2015

Impact of clouds on temperatures already under the control of low
level northeast flow around the SE US upper low to be the short
term forecast challenge today. Readings will be lowest out west as
this area will be slowest to break with the remainder of the
region warmer than yesterday.

As overnight lows tonight are forecast to drop below afternoon dew
points there will be some fog tonight from SGF eastward.
Visibilities will key in on the clearing of low clouds along with
amount and density of cirrus flowing off digging western system.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 0231 AM CDT MON OCT 05 2015

The arrival of the first rain in a month will be the forecast
highlight during this time period.

Blocking pattern to break down early in the period as persistent
upper low over the SE US fills and exits into the Atlantic while
SW US upper low slides southeastward into northern Mexico under
intensifying northern stream.

00z medium range models remain consistent in advecting a shortwave
across the northern US with an associated cold front to bring scattered
convection into the forecast area Thursday. ECMF a bit slower than
other models adding a bit of uncertainty on the speed of clearing
on Friday though most areas to be dry by the afternoon.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 0649 AM CDT MON OCT 05 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: IFR ceilings to start the taf period
will be slow to improve over the next several hours, but do expect a
general diurnal lifting of ceilings with mvfr conditions expected
by 18z. The process will be slowed a bit by extensive higher

Progged soundings indicate lower clouds should scatter out during
the 18z-00z time frame with extensive mid and upper level vfr
ceilings expected for the last portion of the taf period. Some fog
is indicated by most notably nam bufr soundings late in the taf
period. SREF guidance and gfs progged soundings limit chances,
likely due to expected extensive mid/high clouds which could limit
radiational/near ground cooling.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
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