Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 141046

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
546 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

An upper level disturbance is currently spreading across the
region early this morning. Showers with some embedded scattered
storms have developed ahead of this feature across the area early
this morning. Instability is limited enough in nature to prevent
any severe weather from occurring with this activity. The upper
level shortwave trough will spread east across the area this
morning along with the showers and the scattered storms. The
convection will end from west to east generally by mid morning on
the back side of the upper level disturbance, however a lingering
shower/storm or two may persist across south central MO to closer
to midday.

Dry weather will occur this afternoon behind the trough with
warmer conditions starting to spread back into the area. Highs
this afternoon will range from the middle 60s across south central
MO to the lower 70s across extreme southeastern KS and far
southwestern MO.

Lows tonight will only cool into the upper 50s to the middle 60s
as the warmer air mass accompanied by cloudy skies spread across
the region.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

A warming trend will occur Saturday into Monday, as an upper
level ridge builds over the region. Some light drizzle may be
possible Saturday morning under the low level clouds that will be
over the area but otherwise dry conditions will occur into Monday.
Highs on Saturday will top out in the upper 70s to the low 80s
with highs in the lower to middle 80s occurring Sunday. The
warmest day of the week will occur on Monday as highs in the
middle 80s to upper 80s occur. Some record highs may be approached
across some of the area on both Sunday and Monday. Please see the
climate section below for more information on the records and
years for the area on these dates. Breezy southwesterly winds will
occur on each afternoon from Saturday through Monday, as wind
gusts nearing 30 mph are expected across southeastern KS and
western MO.

An upper level trough will push across the western CONUS Tuesday
into mid week. Highs will remain in the low 80s on Tuesday but
will be cool as the ridge spreads off to the east. A cold front
will push through the area later Tuesday into Tuesday night and
will bring cooler conditions to the area late next week. The front
and upper level trough will also bring chances for showers and
storms to the area Tuesday night into the middle of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Shortwave energy was pushing through the area early this morning.
Thunder has pretty much subsided with the remnant showers and
coverage has been decreasing in intensity over the past couple of
hours. Showers should end at the TAF sites by around the onset of
12z TAFS or shortly thereafter. Stratus extends quite a bit
further back to the west and north so it will likely linger much
of the day and probably into tonight. Have gone into MVFR and then
back to IFR tonight at BBG, but have kept in MVFR for SGF/JLN.


Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

A much warmer air mass will spread over the area to end the
weekend to start early next week. Below are the record highs and
years for Sunday October 16th and Monday October 17th.

October 16th:

City            Record High     Year

Springfield     85              1950
Joplin          88              1995
Vichy/Rolla     87              1950
West Plains     88              1950

October 17th:

City            Record High     Year

Springfield     89              1964
Joplin          88              1964
Vichy/Rolla     89              1950
West Plains     88              1953




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