Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 011958
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...Warm Conditions Will Persist into Wednesday...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 0246 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

An upper level ridge will continue to be in control of our weather
here in the MO Ozarks/SE Kansas vicinity through the short term. An
upper level low has developed along the TX/LA coastlines this
morning. This feature is forecast to stay well south of our area.
However, an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out,
especially locations closer to the Arkansas Border.

Wednesday is expected to be a near carbon copy of Tuesday with
temperatures again in the upper 80s/lower 90s. There may be some
patchy fog early Wednesday out across the eastern portions of the
Ozarks...especially if any rain falls Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 0246 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Upper level ridging will continue across the Midwestern states and
great plains through the week. This ridge will keep temperatures up
and will suppress overall precipitation chances.  That in mind, it
wouldn`t be impossible to see isolated daytime induced convection
later this weekend. A rather strong shortwave will dig across the
northwestern states later this week and into the weekend.

Toward the end of the period, guidance has backed off on
precipitation chances from yesterday for early next week. Models
are now progging the shortwave to ride northeastward into Manitoba
and Ontario by early next week...staying well north of the region.
The cold frontal boundary now looks to become stalled upon losing
UL support across the Great Lakes/Northern Plains. The GFS is
showing a modest signal of developing a Rex Block closer to the
eastern seaboard early next week. If that does take shape, the
weather may turn unsettled with an upper level southwesterly
flow...with ample Pacific moisture. For this package, didn`t make
any major changes to the previous forecast given low confidence in
the longer term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions to prevail today through tonight
at area terminals. A steady southerly wind will continue with some
scattered afternoon cumulus clouds. A few showers or thunderstorms
may develop during the afternoon but this activity will be very
sparse. Some light fog or haze may impact the area late tonight
but MVFR conditions are expected to be very localized.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Foster


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