Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 242344
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
644 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Upper level ridge remains centered over the mid and lower
Mississippi valley and continued to bring hot and dry conditions
to the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas. Temperatures were
ranging from the mid to upper 90s so far this afternoon with heat
index values from the upper 90s to around 102. There is some
isolated thunderstorm development just east and southeast of the
CWA, but we are not expecting anything to occur over our area today.

The main focus through Tuesday will be with the continued hot
temperatures, although there will be a chance of isolated or
widely scattered thunderstorms on Tuesday as a cold front will be
just north of the CWA. The better chances for thunderstorms will
arrive between Wednesday and next weekend as the ridge breaks down
and a shortwave moves east into the area along with a cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Not much change is expected from what we have had the past couple
of days into Tuesday with temperatures reaching the upper 90s to
around 100 and heat index values from 100 to 107 possible. There
will be a chance of widely scattered thunderstorms on Tuesday
afternoon as a cold front will be just north of the area and with
added cloud cover may keep temperatures slightly cooler than what
we have seen the past couple of days and are expecting on Monday.
The heat advisory continues through Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Models still struggling with the timing of the next shortwave with
the ECMWF the slowest solution bringing it into the area
Friday/Saturday time frame. Will see low chance pops from Wednesday
into Thursday with better chances heading into the later part of
the week into the weekend. Cooler temperatures are expected with
more cloud cover and rain chances, but with more humidity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

High pressure continues to dominate the regions weather. As a
result VFR flight conditions are expected through the forecast
period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

The following is a list of record high temperatures and the last
year of occurrence through early next week:

August 24th...

SGF...100/1938
JLN...102/1947
VIH....97/1978
UNO...100/1983

August 25th...

SGF...100/1983
JLN...101/2003
VIH...101/1973
UNO...100/1983

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Hatch
CLIMATE...Boxell








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