Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 200436
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1136 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...Update for 06Z TAFs...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

As expected, a large area of convection has formed across Kansas
this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. As this complex
continues southeast toward the forecast area, it will become
increasingly disconnected from appreciable deep layer shear. In
addition, instability will start to wane this evening as
temperatures begin to cool. This should result in a weakening
trend with time. Any severe weather threat remains limited across
western Missouri and southeastern Kansas, and while there will be
an outside chance of a storm or two approaching severe limits,
widespread severe weather looks unlikely.

The other threat that will need to be watched is flooding/heavy
rain. Short term guidance suggests that the low level jet should
increase considerably late this evening across the western
portions of the forecast area, with associated ascent interacting
with the remains of the MCS as it moves into the region. Cordifi
vectors essentially become "light and variable" across the I-49
corridor, pointing toward the potential for backbuilding/training
thunderstorms over this area. With PWATs between 1.5 and 2.0
inches, any prolonged period of heavy rain will have the potential
to cause flooding concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

The isolated to scattered convection that has developed mainly
across south central Missouri this afternoon will diminish with
sunset.

Meanwhile thunderstorms will increase across Kansas later this
afternoon in advance of an approaching cold front. These storms
will push into the Ozarks region tonight as the front pushes
steadily southeastward in association with a pronounced upper
level trough swinging into the central U.S.

Expect showers and thunderstorms to increase from the west later
this evening and into overnight hours. Locally strong to possibly
severe storms may make it into far southeastern Kansas and far
western Missouri late this evening but this activity will be on a
diminishing trend as it spreads east into southern Missouri
overnight. Frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50 mph and locally
heavy rainfall will be primary concerns with these storms.

Showers and thunderstorms will persist into Saturday morning as
the cold front makes it way across the region. The convection will
end from west to east during the day as the front pushes off to
the east. No severe weather is expected Saturday but lightning
will remain a hazard.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

A noticeably cooler and drier airmass will overspread the region
Saturday night into Sunday as the upper level trough becomes
positioned over the region and Canadian high pressure builds
southward. Highs Sunday will generally be in the mid to upper 70s.

Some warming will take place heading into next week but temperatures
will be quite comfortable for late summer.

Medium range models continue to depict a more active weather pattern
again by the middle and later part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Rain and thunderstorms will affect the terminals overnight tonight
into Saturday morning. MVFR with brief dips to IFR is expected.
Northwest winds may also become gusty at times.

On Saturday, morning thunderstorms will clear by afternoon as a
cold front sweeps across the region. Northwest winds and rapidly
clearing skies can be expected behind this front. Clear skies and
light winds are then expected Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Boxell



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