Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 141123
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
623 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Weak mid level impulse that has brought light showers/drizzle to the
area overnight will push east of the region late today. Some fog and
low clouds will persist through the early morning hours but weak
high pressure will build in this afternoon. This will result in
slowly improving conditions for the afternoon, with some sun
possible. As winds become more southerly expect warmer temperatures
this afternoon rebounding back into the lower to middle 80s with a
rather "muggy" feel for the day.

Quiet condition will begin the evening with partly cloudy skies.
However, the next upper level impulse will begin to slide across the
Plains towards the area. Expect clouds to increase and chances of
rain/t-storms chances to increase as well towards daybreak across
far southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

An unsettled weather pattern continues to take shape as we move
through the week into the weekend. Upper flow transitions to more of
a southwesterly flow through mid week. Models depict initial
shortwave to track across the Missouri Ozarks Tuesday, with a good
chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially Tuesday morning.
Better rain chances look to exist across southwest Missouri and the
adjacent areas of southeast Kansas. A slight uptick in temperatures
is expected on Tuesday with humid conditions as mid 80s highs and
low to mid 70s dew points will yield heat index readings in the
middle and upper 90s, with overnight lows only in the 70s.

Yet another wave is expected to impact the area Wednesday and
Wednesday night. This one will be pushing a frontal boundary
across the region. With the moist and increasingly unstable
airmass more showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially
Wednesday night as the front pushes through southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. At this point no widespread severe weather is
anticipated, but with precipitable water values around 2 inches
will likely see some heavy rain producers. Frontal boundary looks
progressive enough to preclude any flooding, but will have to be
monitored.

Medium range models then diverge in their solutions for late in the
week and the weekend. Ridging begins to build across the western
conus shifting flow back to a more northwesterly flow once again for
Missouri and Kansas, with shortwaves likely impacting the region
over the weekend, but timing is rather difficult this far out. Model
consensus indicates Saturday will have the best chances for rain,
with Sunday relatively dry. Temperatures during this time frame
will be more typical of middle August with highs in the mid and
upper 80s and head index values in the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Starting the forecast cycle with IFR to lower end MVFR stratus
over all southwest MO airports with thicker fog around Branson and
along the southern edge of the Ozark Plateau. May still see some
stratus build down through the early morning at Springfield and
Joplin but should see ceilings lifting and visibility improving at
Branson by mid to late morning with increasing temp/dewpoint
spreads and weak subsidence behind exiting upper level
disturbance.

Will keep VFR conditions going from late morning through the rest
of the forecast period but will need to monitor for precipitation
developing after 06Z, especially around Joplin and Branson as
another upper level disturbance moves across the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Terry



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