Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 181059
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
559 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

High pressure will settle into the region today in behind the
cold front that has descended into the Gulf. Temperatures
associated with this Pacific air mass will be a bit cooler but
still above normal for mid March.

As surface dew points drop into the 20s so will relative
humidities, especially in the eastern Ozarks. Light winds though
will preclude a fire weather risk from developing.

Winds shifting southerly tonight will set up a nice return flow
on the back side of the surface high on Sunday. The western
portion of the forecast area will see the wind shift quicker
resulting in a range of high temperatures from the 80s over
southeast Kansas to closer to 60 degrees in the eastern Ozarks.

There are some questions associated with rain chances late tonight
into Sunday. Models are depicting a rather rapid return of
moisture as depicted by the H8 Theta E. Thus isentropic lift
associated with the warm air advection should lead to scattered
convection as instability increases from west to east late tonight
into Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Zonal upper flow pattern will dominate through mid week...however
there will be periodic rain chances as waves on the northern
periphery of the flow drag cold fronts into the Ozarks. Moisture
will not be overly significant in this pattern until a deep trough
forms and crosses the Central Plains late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected through this evening. An approaching
warm front may then bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to
the area late tonight. The best chance for storms will be across
central Missouri. Winds will remain light and variable into
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Schaumann



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