Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 121845
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
145 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

Today is the day to get out and enjoy some beautiful spring time
weather before the storms roll in tomorrow and turning much colder
by Monday. A warm front has lifted through the area overnight and
was currently near the I-70 corridor. Skies were generally mostly
clear to partly cloudy around the area with mild temperatures in
the upper 50s to lower 60s.

A surface low will begin to develop at the Lee of the Rockies near
the panhandle of Oklahoma today. This will cause a decent pressure
gradient over the area with southerly winds 15 to 25 mph gusting
over 35 mph at times. Skies will generally be partly cloudy today
and sunshine will help warm the temperatures into the upper 70s to
lower 80s. A strong cap around 800 mb will keep the weather quite
and dry through most of tonight but there will be some convection
developing out to our northwest across northern Kansas and
northwester Missouri which may be near portions of southeast
Kansas into central Missouri by daybreak tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

Model soundings suggest the cap will hold through most of the
morning but start eroding away over the western half of the area
by midday to early afternoon. Depending on which model you look
at...all suggest convection to develop over the western half of
the area by the afternoon hours. The GFS and ECMWF is quicker than
the NAM on development.

There is a little more confidence in the evolution for the system
Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Low pressure will be over
central Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon with a front from near Kansas
City down to Wichita down to a triple point in north central
Oklahoma.

Bulk shear will be about 45 to 50 knots. A vigorous
shortwave will be ejected out into the southern and central Plains
Region. A speed max will spread into the region by mid to late
afternoon. Surface dewpoints will be in the lower 60s and
instability will be around 1000 J/KG maybe more if we get some
breaks in the clouds. 0-3km storm relative helicities will be up
to 400 m2/s2.

Convection will develop by early afternoon across southeast Kansas
into western Missouri ahead of a front. These storms will be
surface based and the main threats will be damaging wind gusts and
large hail...an isolated tornado or two may be possible depending
on low level instability. The better potential for that will be
over far southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri during the
afternoon hours.

As we look into the evening...strong forcing will develop a line
of strong to severe storms along the surging cold front
southeastward. This line will be across southeast Kansas into west
central Missouri by early evening and steadily advancing southeastward
through the evening and overnight hours. The cold front will
steadily undercut the line of storms which means the main threat
in the evening and overnight hours will be mainly damaging winds
and large hail.

The front will be east of the area by early Monday morning with
lingering rain showers behind the front Monday morning. Storm
total rainfall is expected from one to one and a half inches with
isolated amounts up to 2 inches possible. Strong cold air
advection will be behind the front with temperatures by Monday
morning in the upper 30s northwest of I-44.

Monday looks much colder and cloudy and windy...Wind chills will
be in the 20s...temperatures will fall initially during the day
and then hold steady in the upper 30s to lower 40s by afternoon
with scattered showers around. One thing to mention is the NAM and
GFS now suggest enough cold air aloft with the main trough moving
through may allow for some wet snow to mix in with the showers on
Monday. No accumulation is expected since the ground will be warm
and temperatures will be above freezing but something worth
mentioning.

Clouds will clear out Monday night and a cold Canadian High
Pressure will move in. Areas of frost and a freeze is looking more
likely Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Guidance has come
in slightly colder with middle to upper 20s possible over the
northwestern two thirds of the area. Frost or Freeze headlines
will be needed soon for Monday night.

Cool temperatures will be around through the middle of the week
with a slow moderation of temperatures by the end of the week.
Models are in a big disagreement for the end of next week. GFS
has another storm system affecting the area by Friday while the
ECMWF has the area dry with high pressure. Will only mention
slight chances of rain for end of next week until better guidance
comes in.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 135 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

VFR conditions expected through at least the first half of the TAF
period. Cold front currently located from northeast NE through west
central KS will gradually make its way towards the area through
the period.

With a rather tight pressure gradient in advance of the
front...winds will be gusty across all terminals during the
daylight hours and will likely persist at KJLN into the overnight.
In addition...with the low level jet setting up in advance of the
front...low level wind shear will also be a concern at all
aerodromes from 00z until after the front passes. The low level
jet will also bring in some addition moisture and MVFR ceilings
after about 07z.

For now...do not believe that convection will begin on Sunday
until after the end of the forecast period. So have not included
any mention at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede





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