Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 300540

1240 AM CDT Sat May 30 2015

...06Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

Low topped subtropical convection, some supercells, has developed
in moderate instability along the eastern edge (and points east)
of an area of rain and thunderstorms ahead of an advancing
shortwave over eastern OK. Rotation seems to be maximized
along/just north of a w-e oriented front that extends from the
three state OK/AR/MO border into south central MO near KUNO. 0-3km
helicity is fairly good 150-200 m2/s2 while low level 0-1km is
weaker, but the boundary is likely helping to augment lower level
rotation a bit. Storm rotation has been more prominent/persistent
in mid levels and less so closer to the sfc. Will maintain a close
met-watch on storms over southern MO.

Rainfall is the next concern. Efficient rainfall has occurred in
the high PWAT environment and lift will be aided by the shortwave
moving through the region early tonight. Rainfall of an inch or two
over the next 6-10 hours will elevate the flood risk, especially
where locally heavy rain/cell training occurs.

The overall forecast trend is to move the heavier rain east of the
region more quickly and will taper off to rain/drizzle on Saturday
with cool temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

The shortwave moves east of the area with broad upper level
ridging moving into the Plains early next week, then through our
area by Wed-Thu. Trend has been to hold back western troughing a
bit with upper level ridging remaining over the central CONUS.
Looks like a dry period for much of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

IFR to LIFR conditions will overspread the terminals overnight,
with low cloud cover and perhaps some fog continuing through the
day on Saturday. A brief rise to MVFR may occur on Saturday,
though confidence is low. Cigs/vis should again decrease Saturday
night into Sunday.


MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR MOZ056>058-066-

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR KSZ073-097-101.



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