Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 211705

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1205 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Some fog has developed closer to a sfc ridge of high pressure that
extends from the Great Lakes to northern AR. Some will be locally
dense, especially near Table Rock and Bull Shoals lakes.

Another very warm day is expected today with an upper level ridge
in place. High level clouds from subtropical moisture streaming
northeast from the southwest U.S. may shave a couple/few degrees
off of yesterday`s highs, but it will still be warm and humid for
this time of year.

Could see some fog in some areas south of I-44 with the sfc
pattern little changed from tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Big changes in the overall pattern are still expected and with
change comes uncertainty especially by days 6 and 7 (Mon/Tue).

There is good agreement at least for a few days with a large
upper level trough developing over the western U.S. and a sharp
downstream ridge over our area. This will keep temperatures warm
through Sat.

By Sat, guidance slowly progresses the western trough to the east
and the ridge over us also begins to move off to the east. A
narrow plume of moisture will be drawn north along/ahead of a slow
moving sfc front moving into eastern KS late Sat/Sunday. There is
a heavy rain signal present given the slow moving front and
increasingly moisture rich air mass expected to be drawn northward
from the western Gulf. We will need to watch forecast trends for
heavy rain, especially for the Sunday/Mon time frame.

By Mon-Tue there is A LOT of variance in various GFS ensemble
members, ops GFS and ECMWF, and Canadian guidance, mostly in
how/when/where/if a cutoff low (or lows) will develop over the
central CONUS. A lot hinges on whether a Canadian shortwave digs
southeast into the U.S. early next week or not. All guidance
points to a high amplitude pattern, but superimposing all the
guidance on one map looks like a mess of spaghetti. A guidance
blend yields generally cooler temperatures with unsettled wx/chance
of precip, but confidence in the forecast early in the work week
is much, much lower than normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours as upper level
ridging remains in place across the region. Winds will from the
south, generally at or below 10 kt.


Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Below are record highs and record warm low temperatures, and
corresponding years, for the next few days.


9/21--93/1955, 73/1931
9/22--93/1937, 69/1937
9/23--92/1960, 72/1937


9/21--95/1956, 76/1980
9/22--95/1956, 73/1988
9/23--92/1910, 73/1986


9/21--97/1955, 69/1964
9/22--95/1955, 71/2005
9/23--92/1948, 69/1984


9/20--95/1954, 71/1965
9/21--94/1955, 72/1980
9/22--95/1956, 71/2005
9/23--92/1897, 70/2010




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