Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 191729
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1229 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

...Update to Aviation for 18Z TAFS...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Additional rounds of storms are expected today and tonight across
the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas. Currently an area of
showers and a few storms are pushing east across far south
central Missouri. Instability is currently weak across the area so
no severe weather will occur with this activity this morning and this
activity will spread east and out of the area by mid day.

Additional storms have developed across central Oklahoma this
morning. These storms will continue to track northeast and
are expected to spread into the area this afternoon. Instability
will increase across the area by this afternoon ahead of these
storms. This will result in a strong to severe risk with hail to
the size of quarters and winds up to 60 mph possible in the strong
storms this afternoon. At this time it appears that locations that
have the greatest potential of being affected by this activity is
along and north of I-44 but a few storms may be able to spread
south of the interstate.

Yet another round of storms will develop across Oklahoma and Texas
this afternoon as an upper level low spreads east into the Plains.
These storms are expected to form into a line then push into the
area this evening. An unstable air mass will remain in place
across the area so a severe risk will occur with this line of
storms. There will be the risk for damaging wind gusts up to 70
mph within the line. In a few of the stronger updrafts, hail to
the size of quarters will also be possible. Low level shear will
increase this evening ahead of the upper level low as the low
level jet increases. As a result there will be a risk for
tornadoes in the line with any surges that can occur to the east
northeast. The line of storms will likely race across the area
this evening into the early overnight hours.

Showers and a few storms will occur behind the line of storms into
Saturday morning, but the severe risk will be with the line of
storms this evening. Will maintain the Flash Flood Watch through
tonight for southeastern Kansas and western Missouri. This risk
will be more localized where training of storms can develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

First round of storms that developed Thursday afternoon over the
Central / Southern Plains has moved across most of the forecast
area early this morning. The portion that moved across our
southern tier of counties has produced wind damage from Table Rock
Lake eastward into Christian/Taney/Douglas counties. Storms
crossing the central and northern portion of the forecast area
have mainly produced heavy rain, small hail and wind gusts around
40-50 mph.

Next round of storms developing over north central OK will
gradually weaken through the morning but may hold together long
enough to affect our western counties with sub-severe convection
through mid to late morning.

Will be trimming the tornado watch through the early morning as
strongest storms move eastward across south central MO. Otherwise
expect another round of strong to severe storms to develop from
central OK to eastern Kansas this afternoon and affect our region
this evening and during the overnight hours.

With potentially two more rounds of rain affecting the region,
will go ahead and keep the flash flood watch going over our
western counties and have included Barry/Stone/Lawrence counties.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Expect storms to be ongoing early Saturday morning and into the
afternoon as the surface front shifts eastward with the approach
of the main upper level trough. Dry slot associated with upper
trough passage should overspread the region sometime between late
Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. As a strong surface high
builds into the region on Sunday,still looks like we will see
below normal temperatures with some location possibly dropping
into the upper 40s Sunday morning.

Low precipitation chances return on Monday as a clipper type
system drops across the region from the northwest. Otherwise it
looks pretty dry and relatively cool through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Showers and storms have
developed across northeaster Oklahoma and will track northeast
across the area this afternoon. This activity is expected to
remain just north of the KBBG area but will likely affect the KJLN
and KSGF sites this afternoon. This activity will spread east of
the TAF sites by late this afternoon. IFR visibilities will be
possible with any storm.

Additional storms are expected to develop across the area this
evening, likely in the form of a line. There will be a risk for
strong winds within this line of storms. IFR conditions will also
be possible with any storm this evening. Showers and a few storms
will remain possible over night as a storm system tracks east
across the region.

Ceilings are expected to lower into the MVFR and possibly the IFR
range Saturday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ055-066>068-
     077-078-088-089-093-094-101>103.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Wise



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