Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 240938
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
338 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

...Temperatures Rising Above Freezing Today...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

Looks like temperatures will rise above freezing today for a change.
A southwesterly low level flow and more sunshine by afternoon will
help to push temperatures upward today. The existing snowpack will
mitigate warming over the Ozark Plateau where highs will likely
remain in the middle and upper 30s. Areas of southeastern Kansas
into central Missouri that have less or no snow cover will have
the potential to warm more substantially into the 40s. The quite
weather will persist into tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

The next shortwave and associated surface low will slide
southeastward toward the Ozarks on Wednesday within a prevailing
northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will warm well above
freezing Wednesday ahead of the approaching clipper system. Highs
will climb into the 40s from southeastern Kansas into southwestern
Missouri.

This system will track southeastward across southern Missouri
Wednesday night ushering in another surge of Arctic air. Light
snow will develop to the east and north of the surface low track
that extend from eastern Kansas into Arkansas. Expect most of the
the Missouri Ozarks to receive light snow or flurries. Locations
of central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks will have the better
potential of receiving a steadier snow and accumulations up to an
inch Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

An Arctic airmass will again overspread the area Thursday and
remain entrenched through Friday. High temperatures Thursday and
Friday will only reach the 20s with lows Thursday night back down
in the single digits.

The forecast heading into the weekend continues to look muddled.
The development of an upper level trough out west and a developing
frontal zone underneath a more southwesterly flow aloft will set
the stage for an increasing potential for precipitation. The
Arctic airmass that will initially be in place and the strength
of warm air advection play into the uncertainty of the extent of
warming and precipitation types. At this time it appears we have
the potential of seeing a variety of wintry precipitation this
weekend with a transition to rain at least for a time.

Extended forecast confidence is low at this time as it relates to
exact precipitation types and amounts. Please monitor the latest
weather forecasts as we approach this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

Some mid level cloudiness will persist through the overnight with
clearing towards morning. Should remain in VFR conditions. Wind is
beginning to move around to the southwest in the western CWA and
this trend will continue overnight and increase in speed towards
morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg





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