Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 122329
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
529 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 105 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Low clouds and perhaps some light fog and drizzle will linger
across most of the Ozarks region tonight in the wake of a cold
front that moved across the region Sunday. Surface high pressure
will build into the area tonight and shift off to the east on
Monday allowing for a return southeasterly flow. The extent of
clearing is questionable Monday with at partial clearing more
probable across central into eastern Missouri. Temperatures will
be seasonably cool.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 105 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Low level warm air and moisture advection will develop Monday
night into Tuesday with aforementioned front return north as a
warm front. This will result in extensive cloud cover and a
chance for showers and/or drizzle beginning Monday night and
continuing into Tuesday.

The coverage and intensity of showers will increase Tuesday night
as the cold front drops southeastward into the region. Just
enough instability may be develop to support some isolated storms.
This front will drop through the region Wednesday bringing a
cooler airmass back into the Ozarks.

This front will return as a warm front Thursday bringing a renewed
chance for showers. A more substantial storm system will take
shape over the central U.S. by Friday. A sharp cold front will
swing across the region Friday bringing a good chance for showers
and thunderstorms. After brief warm-up late in the week cooler but
seasonable temperatures will return for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

MVFR ceilings will continue for the evening hours before ceilings
lower into IFR Overnight. There is some uncertainty as to how low
we will go Overnight however at this point BBG and SGF have the
best chance of seeing the lowest ceilings, with a few models even
showing LIFR ceilings. Visibilities will generally lower into the
3SM-5SM range after 06Z. Cant rule out a few hours below that
range however am not expecting dense fog at this time. Winds will
start out of the north and switching to more of an easterly wind
overnight into tomorrow morning. This will likely keep the stratus
into the morning hours. Wind speeds will generally remain under
10kts.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Burchfield



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