Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 262003

303 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 0303 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Surface high pressure remains over the central U.S. allowing mostly
sunny skies and pleasant late August temperatures, with readings
in the upper 70s to lower 80s during the mid afternoon hours.

An upper level ridge remains centered over the Rocky mountain
region, with northwest flow aloft occurring over the region. An
upper level disturbance and lift will ride the northwest flow and
shower and storm develop is possible across Nebraska and northern
Kansas tonight. If storms develop they would track south and
could clip extreme southeastern Kansas late tonight into Thursday
morning areas west of I-49. There is dry air in place across the
area that needs to so there are questions if the storms can
develop and just how far east they will develop. If they can
develop and affect the area they will dissipate fairly quickly
Thursday morning.

An upper level shortwave will begin to spread into the plains on
Thursday and start to flatten the ridge some, but will remain well
west of the area on Thursday. Overall Thursday afternoon will be
fairly similar to what is occurring this afternoon expect cloud
cover will start to increase some.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 0303 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

The shortwave trough will continue to track east across the plains
Thursday night into Friday night pushing the area of surface high
pressure off to the east. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm Thursday
night and Friday across extreme southeastern Kansas and far
western Missouri with the approach of shortwave, but the better
chances will remain west of the area and most locations are
expected to remain dry.

Friday night into Saturday morning the shortwave trough and an
associated cold front will track east across the area with
scattered storms possible. No severe weather is expected as
instability will be limited in nature.

The upper level ridge will build back over the plains later this
weekend and start to spread east across the area the first half
of next week. Temperature will warm back to near normal with highs
in the upper 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 0109 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Will need to
monitor the potential for a few showers or storms Thursday morning
across eastern Kansas that may approach the JLN aerodrome.
Confidence is much too low at this time to include in the
forecast, but trends due bear watching. Light/variable winds will
give way to a southeast breeze on Thursday.




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