Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 192019
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
219 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 219 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

After some overnight and morning fog in the low lying areas and
valleys, most of the area has seen some sunshine this afternoon.
A pesky area of stratus over a small part of south central MO was
finally diminishing. Temperatures have responded nicely to the
sunshine with some records already having been broken this
afternoon and others approaching. Most locations were in the low
to mid 70s, with the exception of where the clouds are still
holding on, where readings were still in the mid 60s.

Upper level ridge axis was transitioning eastward across the area
today with some low level warm advection, aiding in the very warm
February temperatures.

The main focus tonight will be with showers/possible thunder
moving into the western CWA late and with temperatures through the
remainder of the period.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 219 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

The ridge will depart to the east tonight with a trough of low
pressure gradually moving in from the west late tonight into
Monday. Precipitation will likely hold off until after midnight
across the western CWA, but should start to move in by 12z Mon.
While there are fairly high pops in place for this event, the
overall QPF totals do not look very impressive, certainly not
enough to help with the recent dry spell. Also, the instability
does not look overly impressive, but enough to where some
scattered embedded rumbles of thunder will be possible. Severe
storms are not expected.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

The trough will gradually push across the area on Monday into
Monday night, with most of the precipitation ending by 12z Tue.
Monday will likely be the coolest day until Friday of the upcoming
work week, with well above normal to near record temperatures for
Tuesday - Thursday this week. The overall polar jet will remain
north of the CWA until late in the week. An upper level wave will
push into the area Thursday night into Friday, with the surface
cold front moving through on Friday. Have removed pops from the
forecast as models are not showing much in the way of
precipitation...keeping it to the north and east of the CWA for
now.

Cooler temperatures (more normal for this time of year) will move
into the area behind the cold front for Friday night into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

An upper level ridge will keep sunny skies in place today and into
this evening. However, a cold front will move into the region
overnight bringing showers and isolated storms to the Ozarks.
Ceilings and visibilities along and behind the from will fall to
MVFR with brief periods of IFR where rain is heavier. Low level
wind shear will impact the Joplin area overnight in response to
the approaching front.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Highs for the next two days follow:

             Feb 19th           Feb 20th      Feb 21st
Springfield  72/2016            77/2016       73/1935
Joplin       75/2011            78/2016       76/1996
West Plains  73/1981            76/2016       73/2016
Vichy-Rolla  70/2004 and 2016   75/2016       70/1992

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Hatch
CLIMATE...Lindenberg


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