Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 170738
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
238 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

A few showers/thunderstorms were developing in an area of elevated
instability and low level jet influence over extreme southeast
Kansas into west central MO ahead of the main band of convection
still out in central KS/OK/TX. 850mb winds were howling around 45
to 55 kts across the western CWA in advance of the low pressure
still out in the high plains. Upper speed max of 100-115 kts was
streaming northeast out of TX and into OK. Focus for early morning
will be with band of convection over OK eventually making it into
the western CWA. Main focus over the 7 day period will be with the
several rounds of convection and heavy rain potential.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

For the early morning, will continue to see the potential of some
scattered development over the western CWA in an area of elevated
instability. In addition, the band of convection out in Oklahoma
will continue to lift northeast towards the area, with timing into
the western CWA towards sunrise. We are still expecting a fairly
quick decay of the strength and coverage of convection in our CWA
after it initially moves in as it gets away from the best
instability and sources of lift. The low, both surface and aloft
will lift to the northeast today and will be the source for
additional strong to severe storms over Iowa and northern
Missouri. A tight pressure gradient will lead to windy conditions
across the area today, with the strongest winds likely approaching
or eclipsing wind advisory criteria from late morning through the
afternoon across the northwest half of the CWA. Will be issuing a
wind advisory for this area. As for the convective potential,
after the early morning convection dissipates could see some
additional later in the day convection develop along instability
axis and possible outflow boundary across the southeast CWA where
there is a marginal risk of severe storms. Very strong shear is
expected with modest CAPE, but best synoptic scale lift will be in
the vicinity of the low pressure well to the north. The main risk
with thunderstorms later in the day would be with hail.

By tonight, any convection that may fire in the southeast CWA will
push out of the area with a generally quiet remainder of the
night.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

The next low will be out in the Rockies as we head into Thursday.
Instability will increase across the CWA during the day as we
remain in the warm sector south of a frontal boundary just north
of the CWA. Not much over our CWA to focus convection over the CWA
during the day other than instability. However strong to severe
convection is expected to develop by late afternoon/evening in the
plains and will likely move into our area during the night.
Depending on how much instability can develop during the day
Friday after the Thursday night/Friday morning convection, we may
have a severe risk Friday afternoon into Friday night and then
again on Saturday into Saturday night as the main front moves
through. There will be remnant boundaries across the area from the
nighttime convection to refire convection during the day should
enough instability redevelop. Several periods of heavy rain are
expected to develop from Thursday night into Sunday morning before
the system exits to the east. We are going with 1.5 to 3.5 inches
of rain across the area with the highest amounts over southeast
Kansas into western Missouri at this time with this system.

There will be a break in the convection from Sunday afternoon
through Monday night, before the next system moves in and brings
additional thunderstorm chances to the region.

While there has been some time to dry out from the previous
flooding event, water tables remain at high levels and it would
not take much heavy rain to cause additional flooding, especially
along creeks, streams, rivers and other flood prone areas.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Strong low pressure will move from western
KS to IA during the taf period with a trailing sfc trough
approaching the area. TAFS are VFR with lowering vfr ceilings
expected toward 10z-15z as weakening showers/tstms approach from
the west. Most short term guidance largely dissipates or greatly
limits the coverage of showers after 15z with capping. The best
chances for rain will be at KJLN. Strong south to southeast sfc
winds are expected with gusts of 30-40 kts expected at KSGF and
KJLN.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ055-056-066>069-077>081-088>090-093-094.

KS...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA



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