Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 281713 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1213 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2015

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The main concern will be heat index values again today. An upper
level ridge axis will shift east into MO today ahead of a strong
shortwave moving moving east through the northern Plains. Will
maintain the excessive heat headlines intact. Preliminary fcst has
afternoon max afternoon heat index more reflective of
advisory/borderline warning criteria 101 to 107 deg F (over
several days), but not going to rock the boat in terms of changing
ongoing headlines.

An axis of low level convergence shifts farther east today and
will only carry small pops over the eastern cwfa for pulse
convection. Mid levels are progged to be warmer and overall column
instability is not expected to be as strong as the past couple of
days.

By late tonight, convection associated with the trailing sfc cold
front associated with the shortwave is expected to reach northern
MO into northeast/central KS, but more significant chances for
convection should remain northwest of the region through 12z Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The sfc front will drop south into the area Wed, increasingly
losing it`s convective punch underneath upper level ridging. Will
still carry pops for Wed midday/afternoon with peak heating and
sfc convergence over the region.

Some heat headlines may be needed for the southeast cwfa Wed, but
given at least marginal chances for convection and borderline heat
index values, will let day shift coordinate a possible extension.
Much of the cwfa will see a bit of a cool down in terms of the
heat index values.

The upper ridge is expected to retrograde back to the west putting
us back in a weak nw upper level flow pattern by late Thursday
onward into the weekend. Initially, weak sfc high pressure over
the area should keep better chances for convection s-sw of the
area Thu/Thu night into Fri. Actually through the weekend there
aren`t any signals for significant precip chances. Some
indications exist for a possible approaching front associated with
a shortwave moving southeast out of Canada, but the ECMWF differs
in holding the the subtropical ridge in place much more strongly.
For now, will keeps pops low/nil Thu-Mon with a modest warming trend
(but with overall lower dew points).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR conditions will prevail for this forecast period with mostly
clear skies. Winds will be gusty out of the southwest at JLN this
afternoon before diminishing tonight. A cold front will approach
late tomorrow morning and winds will shift to the west northwest.
Precip chances look too low to include at this point.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Burchfield





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