Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 261729
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Ridge of high pressure remains firmly entrenched over the region
this morning. Early morning temperatures are a bit warmer compared
to the past few mornings, with readings in the mid 70s to around
80 along/northwest of the plateau.

Temperatures should have no trouble quickly getting back into the
90s later this morning, with a near carbon copy for high
temperatures today. In fact, little difference from yesterday is
expected overall. We should see isolated/widely scattered showers
and storms develop once again across the eastern Ozarks and
central Missouri and head to the west with time. This activity
will be diurnally driven, thus a quiet night is expected tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Wednesday will remain hot. While temperatures will be a few
degrees lower than today, dewpoints will be a bit higher. As a
result heat index values will likely be in the 98-102 degree
range. Still not sold on extending the heat advisory into
Wednesday. Heat index values over 100 will be lower in frequency
and for a shorter duration. Will allow the day shift to look at
the 12z suite of guidance to see if an extension is warranted.
A weak shortwave will travel through the northern stream early
Wednesday sending a front to the south, but not far enough south
to affect our area. That said, isolated showers and storms are
once again expected across the area Wednesday afternoon into the
early evening hours.

Another, brief, resurgence of the upper level ridge will occur
Thursday, with another shortwave traversing the northern stream on
Friday. This positively tilted wave will have a southward
extension into the Plains and eventually the Midwest by Friday
night and Saturday. As a result, one more hot day is expected
Thursday with temperatures cooling a few degrees each day Friday
and Saturday. Rain chances will be low on Thursday given the high
overhead and the prospects for deep mixing (dewpoints tank again
Thursday afternoon). The best rain chances will be with the weak
upper wave passage Friday night into Saturday night. Here`s hoping
we can get a decent rainfall with this system. It is badly needed.

Heading into the rest of the upcoming holiday weekend, near normal
conditions are expected Sunday and Labor Day. Thereafter, the
upper pattern becomes more zonal in nature with the potential for
a frontal passage towards the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Diurnal cumulus clouds will
occur through the rest of the afternoon into the early evening
hours, then clear skies will occur overnight into Wednesday
morning. Winds will be light out of the east this afternoon,
becoming more variable overnight. Winds may then become more south
to southwestern on Wednesday.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
into the early evening. These will be very hit and miss in nature
and will have little movement to them. So, for a TAF site to be
affect a storm would pretty much have to develop right over the
TAF site. Therefore, have left out any mention of thunder in the TAFS
do to the expected lack of coverage expected with this activity.
The convection potential will end around sunset this evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Wise






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