Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 140643
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
143 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

...Potential for Strong to Severe Storms Tonight...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Another unseasonably warm day is in store as southerly winds
increase ahead of an approaching front. Highs will again climb
well into the 80s.

A front will remain nearly stalled much of today from western
Oklahoma into northwestern Missouri. Expect convection to develop
along the front during the day as a potent upper level trough
approaches from the west and the environment becomes more
unstable.

By late afternoon an axis of moderate instability will stretch
from northern Oklahoma into western Missouri. Meanwhile deep
layer shear and synoptic scale lift will be on the increase.

Expect strong to locally severe convection to develop within this
corridor by late afternoon into the evening. This activity will
congeal into a squall line that will surge southeastward into
southern and central Missouri this evening and into the south
central Missouri during the overnight hours.

There will be at least a limited risk for severe weather tonight
generally northwest of a Branson to Salem line with the greatest
risk northwest of a Joplin to Eldon line this evening. Damaging
straight line winds will be the primary concern.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The cold front and associated showers will push rapidly off to the
southeast Sunday morning ushering in a much cooler airmass.
Temperatures will remain generally in the 50s Sunday.

The cooler weather will persist into early next week before a
warming trend returns heading into the middle and later part of
next week. Dry weather will prevail next week with the next chance
of rain not arriving until next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

A surface cold front is currently situated from northeastern
Missouri into southcentral Kansas. The nocturnal jet ahead of this
front will create some LLWS conditions at KSGF/KJLN during the
overnight hours. Will also see an increase in lower to middle
layer clouds across the northern portions of the area overnight.

As the front begins to make its way towards the area on
Saturday...winds will become breezy beginning mid morning through
the afternoon with some gusts around 20 kts possible. Convection
near of the front will approach the northwestern portions of the
area late Saturday afternoon and should begin affecting the
KSGF/KJLN terminal sites after 00z. Winds will begin to veer as
well as the front transits the terminal area just beyond the end
of the forecast period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gaede



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