Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 272354
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
654 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The persistent boundary near the MO/KS state line continues to
promote shower/thunderstorm development, however the intensity and
coverage of this activity has been decreasing with time. Lift
along the boundary is waning due to a decrease in convergence and
this trend will continue over the next few hours. Still cannot
rule out a few showers/storms along/west of of the MO/KS state
line, but chances are decreasing by the hour.

Overall, the weather will be mainly quiet over the next 24 hours.
A broad, rather weak shortwave will gradually move southeastward
into the region. A slight chance for a few showers/storms has been
maintained over far northwestern portions of the outlook area
Friday to account for the approach of this feature, but the better
chances will be Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will
remain at or just below average for late August.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The aforementioned shortwave will slowly shift into the region
Friday night and Saturday. The associated low level boundary will
be a focus for sporadic shower and thunderstorm development. Model
output varies on the low level boundary strength and potential
instability. Rain chances are a low confidence forecast at this
point, but folks should be aware that at least scattered showers
and storms will be around Friday night into Saturday night. The
risk for severe storms is also uncertain given a wide disparity in
expected instability. The NAM is quite high on dewpoints (a known
high bias) for Saturday, resulting in much higher CAPE values.
Most models are more modest, supportive of thunder, but not
necessarily strong/severe activity. Will definitely keep tabs on
this in the coming forecasts.

Upper level ridging will build across the Plains into the Central
U.S. late this weekend into next week. This will result in
southerly flow and a warmer air mass spreading across the region.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s can be expected
each afternoon next week. Lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s are
expected each night.

Mainly dry conditions are expected through next week. There will
be an upper level low that moves under the Ridge and remains
across the southern U.S. through much of the week. This low will
meander across the western Gulf Coast States if this low drifts
farther to the north a few storms would be possible across mainly
southern Missouri but no widespread shower and storms expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 0650 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through Friday with
scattered to broken high clouds. A cold front will approach
western Missouri by late in the day on Friday, but any associated
thunderstorm activity is expected to remain west of the Joplin
aerodrome through the late afternoon. Winds will remain light out
of the southeast tonight and will increase a bit out of the south
on Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan/Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann


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