Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 190441
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1141 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

...Update for 06Z TAFs...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

More of the same expected tonight into Friday albeit an increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Isolated to scattered convection will impact far southern Missouri
into this evening mainly near the Arkansas border in closer
proximity to a deep moisture plume. Can`t rule out additional
showers development overnight as deeper moisture advects farther
north.

Will again see at least patchy fog and perhaps of a greater
coverage of low stratus late tonight into Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

After some areas of morning fog and stratus expect to see isolated
to perhaps scattered convection develop Friday afternoon. This
activity will be of the pulse variety and no severe weather is
expected during the day Friday.

More organized showers and thunderstorms will approach the region
Friday night from the northwest ahead of an advancing cold front.
This activity will initially develop to our northwest across
Kansas and northwestern Missouri Friday afternoon then spread
southeastward toward the Ozarks region later Friday night. A
weakening trend will occur with these storms move into the area.
However we do expect a good coverage of showers and thunderstorms
later Friday night.

Showers and thunderstorms will spread east across the Ozarks
Saturday morning as the cold front pushes southeast. Convection
will end from west to east Saturday afternoon as the front swings
across the area. Severe storms are not expected Saturday at this
time.

While the overall risk for severe weather is limited, frequent
lightning, wind gusts up to 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall
could accompany the stronger storms.

Pleasant summer weather is expected Sunday as surface high
pressure builds southward into the area. Quiet weather will
persist into Monday but temperatures will begin a warming trend.

More active weather will again unfold during the middle and later
part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

It looks to be a messy next 24 hours for aviation interests. Low
cigs and some fog have already started to form late this evening,
with SGF and BBG likely to spend a good portion of the night
bouncing between low end MVFR and IFR. JLN looks to be on the
northern edge of stratus for much of the night, and have taken
that site to MVFR, though IFR is certainly not out of the
question. Some fog will also be possible at BBG toward morning.

Cigs look to stay MVFR for much of the day on Friday, as a more
moist airmass builds north into the region, and frontal boundary
begins to approach. This combination will likely keep scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the area for much of the day on
Friday. As is often the case, lower cig/vis can be expected in and
around thunderstorms.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Boxell



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