Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 260835
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
335 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

A storm complex with severe wind gusts developed near Kansas City
early this morning and continues to move southeast toward the Truman
/ Lake of the Ozarks region. A moist and unstable airmass should
allow ample fuel for continued storm development over the next
several hours. There will likely be a gradual decrease in strength
of this system after sunrise as the cold pool is expected to
eventually outrun and undercut the storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

A stationary front remains draped near the I-70 corridor early
this morning and continues to provide a focus storm development as
a shortwave trough moves across eastern Kansas. Further to the
west...another storm complex has developed over western Kansas
ahead of another shortwave trough. These disturbances will help
nudge the I-70 front south across the forecast area through the
day. Will keep higher end precipitation chances going through the
day. Temperatures may get a little warmer than previously expected
along the AR/southeast KS borders. Otherwise will keep the lower to
mid 80s going for max temperatures.

Precipitation chances will decrease from northwest to southeast
through the evening as the front and upper level disturbances
shift southeast of the region.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

Much drier conditions are expected for Saturday as high pressure
spreads southward from the upper Midwest. Temperatures and
dewpoint temps should average around 10 degrees lower than todays
values.

From Sunday through the middle of the workweek...upper level
northwest flow becomes well established...bringing continued
cooler conditions. The latest models show a clipper system moving
across the area on Sunday night and Monday. This will bring us a
fairly quick shot of storms with the highest chances mainly
northeast of Springfield.

Another clipper system may impact the area around
Wednesday/Thursday. Exact timing this far out on these type of
systems is pretty tricky, so went with mainly slight chance to
chance pops through midweek.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

Will likely include predominant thunder at Springfield with
approaching convective complex early in the forecast period, and expect
some gusts over 35 mph with these storms. For now, expect to keep
vicinity going at Joplin and Branson through around 15-16Z.

Next concern will be with wind shift as the stalled front gets
pushed southward as a cold front during the mid morning to mid
afternoon hours. Overall timing we have going still looks good,
so will only deviate slightly from going forecast.

From this evening through the overnight hours, VFR conditions are
expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Noon CDT today FOR MOZ055>058.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Schaumann/Terry
SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Terry






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