Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 180453
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1153 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight into Monday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Large cluster of rain with embedded convection that moved through
the region today is on the wane as outflow boundary has pushed
southward into Arkansas and surface cold front extending from
central Missouri into southeast Kansas loses its identity. One of
the short term challenges will be whether temperatures make a late
afternoon push as clouds thin.

Potential for additional showers and thunderstorms tonight then to
be main challenge this period as frontolysis diminishes impact of
surface front while at the same time weak impulses ride southwest
flow aloft into the forecast area. Convection has rapidly
developed over central Oklahoma as the next impulse pushes into
the panhandle. Confidence is modest as short range and convective
models have poor consistency...though HRR appears to have best
handle on the current state but it diminishes coverage this
evening. Have elected to maintain low pops region wide overnight
with a pick up in coverage toward Monday morning per the ensemble.

Highs on Monday will once will be warmest closer to the Arkansas
line as the potential for rain and cloud debris will be higher
farther north as front retreats northward. There will be a
conditional threat for some stronger storms over the northwest
portion of the county warning area Monday afternoon as this region
will witness the better kinematics though instability will be a
question.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Main weather feature in the medium to long term will be the
digging upper low entering the northwest US. This will maintain
the above average temperatures given the southwest flow aloft and
low level southerly flow into the Ozarks. It will also make for
low confidence in timing weak waves that will result in periodic
thunderstorm chances through mid week. At this time the wave of
energy ejecting through upper low and into the Canadian prairie
and its associated cold front remains the most consistent feature.
Like the last system though the front will be undergoing
frontolysis. Questions therefore exist in its ability to generate
widespread convection despite southerly flow ahead of the system.

ECM/GFS are then in good agreement in digging the western upper
trough late in the work week which will keep the dominant storm
track to the west and north of the CWA next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

For KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAF: Some light fog may be possible at
the KBBG and KSGF TAF sites late tonight into Monday morning.

Scattered showers and storms will then be possible Monday morning
into the afternoon hours. This activity should then end by the
evening hours Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Wise



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