Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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451
FXUS63 KSGF 271059
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
559 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Line of convection continues to push east across the CWA early
this morning. Still getting a few wind reports and a few mesovorts
popping up along the line segments. Will maintain the severe risk
over the eastern Ozarks this morning with this linear convection.

Surface low pressure was still to the west over north central KS
early this morning, with the dry line still over central/eastern
Kansas.

Main focus will be with the ongoing convection and as to whether
the storms will refire later today over our area ahead of
boundary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Ongoing line of convection will likely continue into the eastern
Ozarks through sunrise with showers and thunderstorms continuing
behind the main line into the mid morning hours. The initial line
of convection should continue to weaken as it pushes east, but
can`t rule out some isolated severe wind gusts.  Drier air will
move into the area later today as shortwave energy pushes through.
Main instability will be over eastern Ozarks ahead of this drier
air surge during the afternoon and that area will have the best
potential for future later development. Large hail and damaging
wind will be the main potential for any storms that can refire
later today.

By this evening, this activity will have pushed off to the east of
the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

High pressure will begin to build into the area on Thursday both
at the surface and aloft and should bring a brief reprieve from
the convection. Southwest flow will begin to develop over the area
Thursday night ahead of a deep trough. Energy from this upper low
will begin to track into the area on Friday into the weekend which
will bring unsettled weather an thunderstorm chances into the area
through the weekend. There could be a few strong to severe storms
across the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

First band of convection has shifted east of the terminals and
should see clearing take place this morning. Winds will veer back
to a southerly and eventually southwesterly direction with the
passage of a front that brings a drier air mass in. Convection
will be possible ahead of this front, but will more than likely be
later in the day and east of the terminals. For this reason, have
not included additional thunderstorm mentions in this TAF
issuance.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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