Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 180451
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1151 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

...06z AVIATION UPDATE...


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016

A rather nice Saturday is underway this afternoon across the
region, with temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s, and at
least somewhat lower humidity levels. Weak high pressure will
build south tonight over the area.

For most areas, tonight should be mild and dry. However, some
convection is expected to form across the High Plains tonight, and
may clip extreme southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri
tomorrow morning as it pushes southeast along the 925 and 850 MB
fronts. The vast majority should stay south of the area, but at
least a few thunderstorms may stay far enough north to affect the
southwestern reaches of the CWA.

The only other hazard overnight will be fog potential, mainly
across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, where temperatures
will be somewhat cooler. High level cloud cover may limit this
potential, however.

Any early morning convection should move southeast of the area and
dissipate by mid morning Sunday, with another nice day expected
for most of the area. Temperatures should again be around 80
degrees. Dewpoints will be a bit lower over central Missouri,
where a secondary cold front will just nose into the region.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016

A period of very warm and humid weather is then expected for most
of the workweek, as upper level ridging becomes established across
the Southern Plains. With warm mid levels and no appreciable large
scale forcing, little in the way of rain chances is expected
through Thursday.

By Friday into next weekend, extended guidance is in fair
agreement in bringing a very strong shortwave into the central
part of the CONUS, with a strong cold front sweeping across the
area in the Day 7-8 timeframe. This front will likely be our next
chance of significant rainfall, along with relief from summer-like
temperatures and humidity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016

VFR conditions expected for the next several hours as cirrus move
overhead. Fog potential overnight is still uncertain due to the
high clouds, however with a surface high overhead, calm winds and
moist ground thinking that at least some patchy fog is possible.
BBG and SGF have the best potential for this patchy fog. Otherwise
VFR conditions are expected for Sunday with light winds.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Burchfield



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