Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 151702
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1202 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Longwave trough moves across the northern Rockies through tonight,
while southwest flow develops over southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks. Surface pressure gradient tightens today and expect steady
southerly winds of 10 to 20 mph with some gusts to 30 mph not out of
the question, especially over southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri. With the dry airmass in place will see highs top off in
the upper 80s and perhaps 90 degrees.

Steady south winds will continue tonight, with the gustiness
subsiding during the evening hours. Convection looks to remain to out
west where 850mb jet gets established across Kansas. Cannot rule out
some showers/storms making it into our far northwest counties as
some weak lift will be present. Any parcels lifting AOA 700mb will
encounter little inhibition. However, atmosphere remains pretty dry
and for this reason will not mention any probabilities. With the
southerly breezes, a pretty mild night is expected with lows upper
60s to near 70 in southeast Kansas and the lower 60s in the eastern
Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Southwest flow aloft will continue through the weekend as the upper
trough rotates from the northern Rockies through the northern Plains
and into southern Canada. Although main forcing will remain well to
our north, attendant cold front will approach the area later Saturday
and weaken as it lays up over the area through Sunday night. This
will be our best shot of seeing measurable rainfall for the area,
with the better chances across central Missouri closer to the
front.

A bit more active pattern expected then through the remainder of the
period. Medium range models dig another upper trough across the
northern Rockies through mid week, but differ on its depth and speed,
thus confidence not high on any particular solution. Would expect at
least some periodic rain chances with temperatures remaining above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Starting to see some cumulus development on satellite early this
afternoon and will be adding a scattered layer around 4000 feet
into the 18z tafs. Winds will be gusty this afternoon at JLN with
steady 10 to 15 kts at SGF/BBG. May have some convection in
extreme southeast Kansas overnight as the low level jet
redevelops, but will keep convection west of the terminals for
now. Have VFR through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Lindenberg


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