Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 132335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
535 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

...Update to Aviation for 00Z TAFs...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)

Mild February conditions were observed over extreme southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures warmed into the
50s, under mostly sunny skies and light winds.

An upper level ridge of high pressure was directly over the state
this afternoon, bringing these quiet conditions to the Ozarks.

However, a storm system over El Paso, Texas was shifting eastward,
and will take a track near the Interstate 20 corridor tonight and
tomorrow. This will bring light rain across southern Missouri
tonight and into Tuesday. Most locations north of Springfield will
remain dry. Only about a half inch or less is expected over areas
south of Highway 60.

Overnight lows will fall into the upper 30s or lower 40s,
therefore, we think all precipitation should stay liquid.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)

A Pacific cold front will shift across the area Tuesday into
Wednesday, dropping temperatures back down into the 20s and 30s
Wednesday night.

A large ridge of high pressure will quickly build in by Thursday,
beginning an extended period of warm and dry weather for the
Ozarks. By Friday and Saturday afternoons, temperatures should
warm into the 70s in most locations of the Ozarks. Right now the
models have upper 60s going, but the drought conditions combined
with south winds and sunshine should boost temperatures above

Models have slowed down the progression of the upper level
features, and now have this period of unseasonably warm weather
continuing into Sunday and Sunday night, with highs near 70.

Eventually a shortwave trough will approach the area bringing a
round of showers and thunderstorms. As of now, the models suggest
this happening sometime around next Monday


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

An upper level disturbance is currently moving southeast across
the Plains this evening as an upper level low is located across
the southwestern U.S. Ahead of these features an area of rain has
developed across Oklahoma and Kansas. This rain will spread east
into the area this evening into Tuesday morning. A dry air mass is
currently in place across the area so at first the rain will be
very light as it overcomes the dry air, and a sleet pellet or two
would not be out of the question while the dry air is overcome.
Overnight light rain is expected to lower flight conditions to the
MVFR range as the dry air is overcome. This area of rain will
move out of the area Tuesday morning.

As the upper level low to the southwest moves to the east on
Tuesday additional rain will develop and spread across OKlahoma
and Arkansas. The northern edge of this rain may be able to make
it far enough north into the KBBG area late Tuesday morning and
afternoon, but questions remain on just how far north this rain
will make it. At this time the better chances appear to be south
of the Missouri/Arkansas border.

Winds will remain light throughout the TAF period. MVFR conditions
will again be possible within the rain with conditions improving
back to VFR once the rain ends.




LONG TERM...Cramer
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