Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 280555

1155 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Quiet and mild weather expected through this period. Surface high
pushes east of the forecast area tonight as shortwave trough begins
to drop through the central plains. As this occurs surface pressure
gradient begins to tighten as low level warm advection increases.
With dry atmosphere expect little in the way of clouds. Biggest
sensible weather will be warm temperatures Wednesday along with
strengthening winds. Model guidance trend has been upward with
regards to afternoon highs, especially in the western areas and thus
trended slightly warmer than previous forecast. Will likely see
readings in the lower 70s across southeast Kansas and far western
Missouri...with mid and upper 50s across the eastern Ozarks. As for
winds expect them to remain below advisory criteria...but will
likely see gusts to 30 to 35 mph...especially in areas west of
Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Aforementioned shortwave trough will remain north of the area
Wednesday night...but will drag a cold front across the area late
Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. Outside of
just some clouds, precipitation will remain well north and east of
the area. However, temperatures will fall back to seasonable normals
for both Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back in from
the northern Plains.

Attention then turns to eastward progression of a 500mb southwest
conus low and is associated surface reflection. Medium range models
have trended a little slower with the precipitation shield, with the
12Z GEM keeping Friday night dry and and the 12Z GFS pushing it to
the Kansas/Missouri border by 12Z. Models still indicating that bulk
of precipitation will fall Saturday night which becomes more
problematic in terms of precipitation type. Broad low level warm
advection ahead of the system expected to keep temperatures up on
Saturday. Still enough model differences in the low level thermal
profiles to add much specificity to the grids, but the highest
probability for any accumulating snow would be Saturday night. For
now will continue the rain and snow for the grids. Precipitation
looks to end Sunday with high pressure then settling in Monday and
Tuesday for quiet but seasonable weather.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with
increasing winds. High pressure over the OH Vly will continue to
shift east as low pressure and a cold front approach the region
from the west during this taf period. Kept low level shear at all
taf sites for much of the taf period. S-SE winds will increase
over the next few hours, especially at KSGF with enhanced terrain
winds. Progged soundings support close to 30 kt gusts at KJLN and
possibly KSGF at times before diminishing a bit after 29/00z as
winds veer with the approaching front.


Issued at 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Bumped up fire weather message a bit for Wednesday. With fcst
temperatures reaching the low 70s over the western cwfa, could mix
down some dry air during the day. MOS dew points in the lower 40s
(KJLN) would support RH values in the lower 30s (%). With wind
gusts of 30-35 mph, modest recent rainfall, and dry dormant
vegetation (especially grasses), mentioned elevated fire potential
for the western cwfa in the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO).




SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
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