Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 241725
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Another day of near record to record heat is on tap for the region
today.  With little change in the overall pattern, expect to see
similar temperatures as Saturday, generally upper 90s and low
100s.  Afternoon mixing will again result in a drop in dew points,
though am not expecting readings to drop as much as they did
yesterday.  With temperatures around 100 and dew points in the low to
mid 60s, heat indices will again reach the 100-107 degree range.

Nearly identical temperatures and heat indices will occur on Monday
area-wide.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Temperatures will remain quite warm on Tuesday, though not quite has
hot as yesterday through Monday.  However, it appears that dew points
will be a few degrees higher, resulting in another day of 100+
degree heat indices.  As a result, have extended the Advisory
through early Tuesday evening.  With the ridge weakening just a tad
on Tuesday and dew points increasing, a few afternoon thunderstorms
can be expected across the southeastern Ozarks.

Medium and extended range model guidance is, yet again tonight,
having a difficult time arriving at a consensus regarding the timing
of a mid to late week frontal passage.  The latest 00Z GFS and
yesterday`s 12Z ECMWF were in general agreement in a Wednesday
night/Thursday FROPA, but the latest 00Z ECMWF is now slowing down
the western trough and associated front considerably, delaying
passage into the weekend. Given this continued disagreement,
confidence remains very low in the forecast beyond day 4.  For now,
will trend toward a slower solution, with lower PoPs and somewhat
warmer temperatures. Additional changes may be needed if the slower
trend continues.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Summertime high pressure is in control of the weather across much
of the deep south and Mississippi River Valley. This will keep
conditions hot and dry, with southerly breezes.

Therefore, no low ceilings or obstructions to visibilities are
forecasted.

Safe Travels.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

The following is a list of record high temperatures and the last
year of occurrence through early next week:

August 24th...

SGF...100/1938
JLN...102/1947
VIH....97/1978
UNO...100/1983

August 25th...

SGF...100/1983
JLN...101/2003
VIH...101/1973
UNO...100/1983

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Cramer
CLIMATE...Boxell





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