Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 251701
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1201 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Summertime high pressure over the nation`s mid section has
temperatures sizzling across the Ozarks. Yesterday`s heat indices
reached 118 degrees in Parsons...114 in Pittsburg Kansas. Other
areas ranged from 102 to 112.

Similar conditions are expected for today, therefore the Heat
Advisory has been upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning for areas
along and west of the Interstate 49 corridor.

A few clusters of thunderstorms had developed along the northern
periphery of the summertime high early this morning. It`s quite
possible that some of this rain could impact central and south
central Missouri this morning. Otherwise most locations should
remain dry.

Another warm and muggy night is expected tonight as temperatures
struggle to cool out of the middle and upper 70s. Parts of central
Missouri will have a risk for thunderstorms into early Sunday
morning. Therefore we have confined the better POPS up along the
Osage River Basin from St. Clair County over to Lake of the
Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)

The summertime high continues to deepen over the Ozarks, which
will have a suppression effect on rain chances. We should
experience mostly sunny skies and very hot temperatures both
Sunday and Monday. I would certainly anticipate heat headlines to
continue into early next week with the high center attempting to
shift directly over southern Missouri.

By Wednesday, the upper ridge begins to flatten some as a cold
front is forced into the corn belt. This feature should become a
focus for showers and thunderstorms as it approaches central and
southern Missouri Wednesday night into Thursday.

This front, along with the rain and cloud cover it brings with it,
should offer some relief from the heat. Look for temperatures to
only warm into the 80s by Thursday and Friday.

The GFS suggests that the summer high becomes more centered over
the Great Basin heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Conditions should generally remain VFR through the next 24 hours.
Some isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated
this afternoon and early evening, but right now, it appears that
convective coverage may be too sparse to include in the TAFs at
this time. However, should a thunderstorm affect a terminal later
this afternoon, brief periods of heavy rain and gusty winds can be
expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Boxell






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