Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 201056
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
556 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

...12z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

MCS is shifting off to the east. Strongest convection in our area
is on the eastern flank of the convection. The main near term
concern is where bowing can develop in nw-se line segments. Even
then progged soundings and observation indicate convection is
starting to have more difficulty becoming surface based. In any
case, high res models (HRRR) push convective outflow off to the
east. Convective redevelopment over the eastern cwfa may not be
particularly robust if stabilized by clouds/showers. Will
monitor.

Rainfall: The near term concern is the eastern cwfa where
convection still has the potential to train from south to north.
We are in the process of switching flash flood warnings to areal
flood warnings over far sw MO.

Otherwise, an upper closed low over the Plains will move northeast
into the upper Midwest tonight with drier air and clearing
eventually moving in from the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Some chances for showers/tstms are expected, but we are not
looking at high impact weather during this period.

Sunday: Looks quiet/dry with sfc high pressure moving into MO.

Monday-Tuesday: A high amplitude pattern continues to be expected
over the CONUS with a longwave trough over the Plains and
Midwest. An approaching shortwave will bring the next chance of
showers/tstms late Mon-Tue, but amounts are expected to be fairly
light with better moisture down toward the Gulf of Mexico.

Wednesday: The upper level longwave trough axis passes through
Wed. Clouds, maybe some light precip will linger into Wed, but
hazardous weather impact is expected to be nil/very low.

Thursday-Friday: Thu looks dry again with sfc high pressure. In
general there is decent agreement with global models of the
pattern trying to become more zonal late in the week. We have some
rain chances by Fri with an approaching relatively weak approaching
system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Showers will continue to move eastward this morning. JLN has
already cleared of rainfall and the back edge was knocking at the
door at SGF. BBG will hang onto rain a little longer per radar,
but even that area should be rain free by mid morning. MVFR
conditions and perhaps brief drops into IFR CIGs may be possible
before cloud cover begins to decrease later tonight. Winds will be
generally be west at less than 10kts.

Skies will clear and winds will remain rather light overnight
tonight. Think that areas that calm and clear will likely
experience some fog/vis reduction. Guidance isn`t very bullish
with this idea, so took a conservative approach keeping SGF and
JLN VFR and only MVFR for BBG. Later forecasts will reflect the
overall confidence in morning visibility issues on Sunday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Frye



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