Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 191727 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1127 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1121 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

Forecast updated a bit ago to increase high temperatures for
today. The cold front is steadily moving into the area and winds
have switched to the northwest in most locations. The airmass
change behind the front is lagging a bit, as a result temperatures
will eventually steady off/start to fall from northwest to
southeast during the afternoon. Sunshine is really doing a number
on any remaining snow cover, and most of it (not all) will be
melted this afternoon. Have increased highs to the lower 50s
across far southern Missouri with 40s over the rest of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

Temperatures have risen since midnight across most of the CWA,
most prominently in the west. The rise should taper off during the
remainder of the overnight. Another cold front will push into the
area by late in the morning and through during the afternoon with
winds turning back to the northwest, so we are not expecting much
of a temperature rise during the day today. The front should come
through dry however.

Another cold night is on tap for the area, but not nearly as cold
as yesterday morning. Lows should be from the upper teens to mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

Thursday should see the main upper low exit to the east with upper
flow becoming more westerly during the day. With that, will see a
moderating trend in temperatures back into the low to mid 40s for
most locations.

Thursday night will see low level warm advection and could see
enough isentropic lift for some light precipitation (drizzle or
light rain) to occur. Higher resolution models are keeping surface
temperatures near the freezing mark or slightly below for much of
the CWA during the overnight hours which would lead to some light
freezing rain and freezing drizzle. ECMWF keeps temperatures a bit
warmer and mostly above freezing temperatures. At this point,
don`t expect much accumulation with any ice possibilities. Better
measurable rainfall will occur later on Friday after the
temperatures rise above freezing, and this rise above freezing
should occur fairly early Friday morning.

Showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible
from Friday night into Sunday as better Gulf moisture is advected
into the region out ahead of an upper level trough to our
southwest. This will start to move in negatively tilted Saturday
night into Sunday morning which may cause severe weather issues
for the deep south, but this far north, instability not expected
to be strong enough for any organized severe storms.

This southern stream system is then expected to merge with a
northern stream system late Sunday into Sunday night allowing a
cold front with much colder air to move back into the area. Have
gone with a rain/snow mix potential for late Sunday night, but not
expecting any accumulating snow at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR conditions will be the rule over the 24 hours and beyond. Mid
level deck across northern Missouri will scatter out as it moves
into the area this afternoon, with clear skies expected tonight.
High pressure will move over the area tonight and northwest winds
will become calm, eventually shifting to southeasterly late
Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gagan





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