Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 141656
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1156 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

...Update for 18Z TAFs...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Pockets of showers and thunderstorms continued early this morning
along and ahead of a frontal boundary. Short term hi res models do
show this area eventually diminishing towards morning given
decreasing instability and only a modest low level jet. Pockets
of heavy rainfall/very isolated flooding and lightning will be the
main threats with this activity.

From mid day to late afternoon, additional showers and storms
will develop as the front will remain near the I-44 corridor. If
enough instability develops, then there will be a risk for a few
storms with gusty winds of 50-60 mph, however this will likely be
the exception rather than the rule. Given very high precipitable
water values, efficient rainfall processes will continue and do
think a threat for isolated heavy rainfall/isolated flooding will
exist. Additional areas of storms will be likely into the evening
and overnight hours since the front will not move very much,
however the locations across far SW missouri will be favored for
higher chances. Locations that are in the heavier pockets of
convection could see 1-2 inches of rain in a short time while most
locations will see less than that. Given what will likely be
substantial cloudcover, high temps will remain in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

The front will likely stall somewhere near northern arkansas
Saturday therefore at least scattered rain/storm chances will
continue during the day, especially south of Interstate 44. Highs
will remain in the 80s.

The summertime ridge will begin to move in from Sunday through
most of next week with hot and dry conditions returning. Highs in
the 90s and heat indicies near 100 will be the norm by midweek
onward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Light showers will continue across much of the region this
afternoon. In general, flight conditions should remain VFR, though
very brief drops to MVFR are possible.

Later this evening a front will begin to move through the area.
There`s a very slight chance that a few additional showers could
develop along the front late tonight, though that potential
appears increasingly low, and have left mention out of the TAFs
for now. The other concern later tonight will be fog development,
especially at SGF and BBG. This potential will need to be
monitored going into tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Boxell



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