National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KSGF 121658
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1158 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

IT SURE WAS A CHILLY NIGHT OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. TEMPERATURES WERE FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S...IN RESPONSE TO CANADIAN AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA.

FOR TODAY...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 60S. A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...HELPING TO
ESTABLISH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. THERE IS A SPEED MAX ALOFT
MOVING IN FROM NEBRASKA THAT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. OTHERWISE MOST...IN NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK
INTO THE 40S. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE A RISK FOR FROST...SINCE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

A MASSIVE WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK...AND IT`S GOING TO FEEL
LIKE SPRING FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
SHOVE THE STORM TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY
TRAJECTORIES WILL COMMENCE UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...BRINGING BOTH
WARMTH AND RICH AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OZARKS. THIS
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL GIVE US OUT FIRST TASTE OF SUMMERTIME
HUMIDITY THIS SEASON...AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 60S.

THIS MOISTURE AND WARMTH WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE THE OZARKS AIR MASS
JUST IN TIME FOR AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS
COMBINATION WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...STARTING
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING IN RANDOM FASHION INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. SINCE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN BELT
OF WESTERLIES...THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATED WITH THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE COULD MITIGATE STORM INTENSITY. ULTIMATELY THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY SET UP DOES NOT APPEAR IDEAL FOR A
TYPICAL MAY EPISODE OF SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA AERODROMES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND STAY MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AT JLN...OTHERWISE ALL
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD TODAY. A
GRADUAL SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION TO SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CRAMER
LONG TERM...CRAMER
AVIATION...GAGAN