Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 132306

506 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 128 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

The upper level ridge and surface high that have brought cloudy
skies, fog and warm temperatures to the region will remain in
control of the weather again tonight as a storm system begins to
dig into the southern plains on its way towards the Ozarks.

Increasing low level moisture making its way into the region on
the southerly winds will bring another night with low stratus
clouds and fog. With the increased moisture, the fog could be a
bit more dense than the last few nights.

The good thing with the current system, temperatures have been
unseasonable warm and are expected to be warm on Sunday as well.
Lows tonight will only fall into the lower 50s to upper 40s and
highs tomorrow should climb into the upper 50s to middle 60s. This
is about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 128 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

A storm system will move across the southern Plains and lift
northeast across the Oklahoma pan handle towards the Great Lakes
region during the day Sunday through the day Monday. The system
will have a good negative tilt to it as it makes its way through
the Ozarks late Sunday evening and through early Monday afternoon.
There will be good deep layer lift available with the storm system
and moisture will be in place across the area, from the southerly
winds the last few days. What looks to be lacking is any
instability. Models generally agree with only a paltry 50-200j/kg
of cape will be available as the system moves through the Ozarks.
This might be enough for a few isolated rumbles of thunder, but
will be far from producing even a strong storm.

The system will lift east of the region late Monday night with
cool high pressure sliding south across the plains from Canada. A
brief period of quiet weather will occur Tuesday and Wednesday,
with temperatures more near seasonable norms.

The extended models at this point are having a difficult time
resolving the split upper level flow and what to do with
precipitation for the end of the week into next weekend. For now,
have included precipitation chances from late Wednesday night
through Saturday morning. However, confidence is on the low side
as far as amounts type and timing. If the precipitation develops
as indicated with the current models, precipitation would be
mostly in the form of snow with change over to rain or a wintry
mix as temperatures climb above freezing during the afternoons.
Definitely an interesting and complex forecast for the middle to
end of the coming week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 505 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

Some clearing did take place at the SGF terminal over the past
couple of hours, but is expected to fill back in this evening. IFR
conditions will likely redevelop this evening and overnight with
lowering ceilings and visibilities. On Sunday, should see some
improvement during the afternoon, but surface winds may start to
become gusty out of the south in advance of the next system.




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