Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 100847

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
347 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

A sfc low/wave near the KS/MO/OK border associated with a vigorous
shortwave over the central/southern Plains will track northeast
close to the I-44 corridor in MO today, reaching just north of
KSTL by 21z/4pm this afternoon. A trailing cold front will extend
south of the low and we expect the front to pass east of the cwfa
by midday/early afternoon. The warm sector will be characterized
by upper 60s to near 70 sfc dew points over the eastern cwfa
prior to the frontal passage. Despite the abundant low level
moisture, progged relatively warm mid level temperatures and
resultant lapse rates yield only about 500-1000 j/kg in our area
before the front sweeps east. Some storm redevelopment is expected
along the front toward noon and we will need to monitor that
development given the strong vertical shear. Better overall
chances for storms will likely be just off to our east. SPC`s
marginal risk area reflects this well.

Low clouds and some pockets of light rain/drizzle will occur
behind the front. It`s hard to get a handle on how long the clouds
will hang on, but in general we should see some clearing from the
west and southwest as the upper wave passes tonight, but clouds
will likely hang on into Wednesday, especially in our central MO
counties. Temperatures will fall behind the front and for awhile
we will have a decent temperature gradient from wnw-ese with
readings in the upper 40s over KS to near 80 in Oregon County in
south central MO at 18z/1pm.

Moderately gusty nw winds will diminish somewhat tonight as sfc
high pressure starts to move in from the Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Wed-Sat: Our cool down will be fairly short lived as an upper
level ridge builds back into the Midwest/Mid-South region
Wed/Thu. A persistent long wave trough over the western CONUS
will eventually shift east with sfc low pressure and a front
extending from the the TX/OK Panhandles and western KS into the
Corn Belt and northern MO by early Fri. This front will remain in
place in the sw flow aloft through Saturday with increased low
level moisture interacting with it in time. With our area in the
warm sector we will see highs in the 80s once again Fri/Sat, on
the order of 15 degrees F above normal. Precip chances for the
most part will stay off to the northwest, but some increase in
chances will be possible in our northwest counties by late in the
day Saturday.

Saturday night-Monday: There is fairly good agreement that a
shortwave will finally eject eastward from the Plains into the
Midwest pushing the sfc front through our area during the Saturday
night-Sunday time frame. Will monitor for storm potential during
this time given the strong vertical shear, but the degree of
instability is in question. It looks to be a nice cool down behind
the front, similar in magnitude to what we see today/tonight.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A cold front will move through the taf sites
early in the period. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will be
possible near the front with lowering ceilings, especially behind
the frontal passage with low end mvfr and ifr ceilings expected.
Winds will increase with some moderate gusts from the northwest
as a sfc wave of low pressure passes.




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