Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 200024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
724 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

...Mesoscale Discussion and Update to Aviation...

Issued at 710 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

The threat for severe storms is beginning to wane across the
Missouri Ozarks this evening. A cold front/leading outflow has
almost cleared the Ozarks with the exception of a sliver of far
south-central Missouri. Thus, the threat for surface-based
supercells is pretty much over.

We may still see some elevated supercell structures along and
south of the Interstate 44 corridor through mid-evening given
sufficient values of effective deep layer shear. However, MUCAPE
values will decrease throughout the evening. Thus, the window for
large hail is also closing.

Overall, the threat for convection will end from northwest to
southeast from later this evening into the overnight period with
the passage of a 850 mb cold front.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

The cold front will begin a steady push to the southeast across
the region this evening as the upper level trough swings east.
Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage and
linger behind the surface front. The activity will taper off from
the west later tonight as the 850 MB front pushes to the southeast
with most activity moving to our east by daybreak Thursday. A drier
and cooler airmass will overspread the region Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Seasonably cool temperatures can be expected heading into late
week as surface high pressure builds into the area and the region
comes under the influence of a northwesterly flow aloft.

A warming trend will return this weekend into early next week as
an upper level ridge builds back across the region. Dry weather
will persist until the middle or later part of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 710 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
impact southern Missouri this evening before ending from northwest
to southeast across the area later tonight. MVFR and brief IFR can
be expected around storms.

Meanwhile, MVFR ceilings with pockets of IFR can be expected for
much of the night behind a passing cold front. These ceilings will
then improve throughout the morning on Thursday.




LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.