Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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975
FXUS63 KSGF 110916
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
316 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

...Red Flag Warning Today as Dry and Windy Conditions Combine...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

An upper level trough is currently over the Northern Plains early
this morning. The trough and associated area of surface low
pressure will dive southeast today, sending a cold front through
the area by mid day today. Moisture is limited across the area so
the front will pass through dry. Winds will switch to the
northwest behind the front and increase and become gusty as the
pressure gradient tightens across the region.

Temperatures will not cool right behind the front as highs top
out in the upper 50s to the middle 60s this afternoon. The colder
air with this system will lag behind the front and will not
spread into the area until tonight into Tuesday. A drier air mass
will, however, start to spread into the region behind the front
this afternoon. The warm and dry air mass will combine with the
gusty winds to create a significant fire weather risk this
afternoon. Fires in these conditions will likely spread rapidly
and outdoor burning is not recommended today. A Red Flag Warning
will be in effect from 10am to 6pm today for the entire area. See
the Fire Weather Discussion section below for more details.

Clouds will increase across the area this evening and tonight
behind the front as lows drop into the 20s. The colder air mass
will be over the area on Tuesday resulting in highs in the upper
30s to the lower 40s even with plenty of sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Temperatures will return to the 50s on Wednesday ahead of another
upper level disturbance which will move through the region
Wednesday night. Yet another upper level trough will then sweep
through the area Thursday night. A dry air mass and limited
moisture return will result in no precipitation occurring with
these systems late this week. Highs in the 40s will occur both
Thursday and Friday afternoons as cooler air slides into the area
with these systems.

Warmer conditions will then spread back into the area for the
weekend as highs warm well into the 50s both afternoons. Another
upper level trough will sweep across the area late in the
weekend. Again dry air should limited any rain across the area
with the better chances remaining south and east of the area.

Dry conditions along with winds picking up with the passing
systems, will result in limited to elevated fire weather
conditions developing almost each afternoon this week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR. A dry cold front will increase southwest
winds and veer them to the northwest late in the taf period. Gusts
of 30kts will be possible, especially at KSGF and KJLN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Winds will be out of the southwest this morning but will switch
to the west by late morning then the northwest this afternoon as a
front slides southeast through the region. The colder air mass
with this system will lag to the north and not spread in right
behind the front this afternoon. Temperatures will still warm
into the upper 50s to the middle 60s this afternoon.

A drier air mass will spread into the area behind the front this
afternoon. The warm and dry air mass will result in afternoon
humidity values dropping as low as 15 to 25% today.

As the surface low pressure tracks southeast through the region
today, the pressure gradient will tighten across the area allowing
winds to increase and become gusty. Northwest winds of 15 to
25mph with gust up to 35mph are expected to develop across much of
the area by this afternoon.

Red Flag conditions are expected to be met today, as a result of
the dry and warm conditions combining with the gusty winds. A Red
Flag Warning will be in effect from 10am to 6pm today for the
entire area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105.

KS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...Wise



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