Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 100448

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

An upper level disturbance is currently moving east across the
central Plains this afternoon. Ahead of the disturbance a few
showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder have developed across
eastern Kansas into far western Missouri. This activity will be
short lived in nature and coverage will be limited. As the sun
begins to set the coverage should continue to decrease even more
than it is currently. A few showers/maybe rumble of thunder will
remain possible into tonight but overall most locations should
remain dry.

Coverage should then increase during the late morning and after
hours as the disturbance tracks across the area. Instability will
be limited so no severe weather is expected. Brief locally heavy
rainfall and occasional cloud to ground lightning strikes will be
the main risk with the storms.

Lows will drop into the 60s tonight as highs once again warm into
the lower to middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Several upper level disturbances will track through the region
Friday into early next week. Showers and storms will occur with
the passage of each disturbance. There will be breaks in the
showers and storms behind the disturbances, but chances for
showers and storms will occur at times every day into early next

The heaviest rainfall axis is expected to remain just southwest
of the forecast area across northeastern Oklahoma. Amounts will
gradually decrease to the northeast, as rainfall amounts are
expected to range from around an inch across central Missouri to
around three inches across extreme southeastern Kansas and far
southwestern Missouri. At this time this amount of rainfall is not
expected to result in much of a flooding risk, but if the heavy
rainfall axis does shift a tad farther north a flooding risk
could develop.

Instability will remain limited through the period limiting the
overall severe risk. The main risk with any storm will be locally
heavy rain and cloud to ground lightning strikes.

Temperatures will remain below normal for mid August with highs in
the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s each day through early next


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A series of upper level disturbances will
bring chances for scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms at
times, but coverage in general will be limited. Outside of
showers, vfr ceilings are expected with extensive mid and high
level clouds.




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