Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 222138

338 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

Isentropic lift/ascent is fighting dry low level air resulting in
occasional very light snow. Crowd sourcing data (MPING) has shown
snow reported as far east as Ozark/Springfield. Had a skiff of
snow here at the office just within the last few minutes. Not
expecting travel impacts, but a dusting could occur here and
there especially over the far western cwfa. Expect any chances of
snow to end by early evening.

Cold air will continue to move into the area tonight as strong
high pressure becomes centered to our north over the
Midwest/Cornbelt by 12z/daybreak Monday. Not much change to our
forecast with single digit temperatures fairly common by Monday
morning with wind chill values near or just below zero.

The sfc high will move through the area Monday/Monday evening with cold
temperatures but with diminishing winds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

A w-sw sfc wind will develop late Monday night into Tuesday as the
sfc high shifts south. A modest warming trend will develop during
the day Tuesday into Wednesday. But with the positive PNA pattern
we are in, more cold air will drop south into the area with a
frontal passage Wednesday. A modest clipper/sfc wave along the
front may bring some light accumulating snow Wednesday night but
we are not expecting much. The main story for much of this time
frame (Wednesday night-Thursday-Friday) will be colder than normal

Medium range guidance in general digs a shortwave into the western
U.S. with a retrogression of the east Pacific upper level ridge by
days 6/7 Saturday/Sunday. A zonal wsw upper level flow develops over
the southern CONUS by the weekend. A warming trend is expected
ahead of an approaching front, potentially warmer than a blended
guidance. Will need to watch trends. In either case, a modified
Gulf of Mexico air mass may bring an increasing chance of precip.
Overall performance of medium range guidance this winter leads to
a relatively low confidence in any solution, but at least right now
there is good general agreement between guidance suites.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect a period of MVFR ceilings this afternoon.

An upper level disturbance was forcing some light snow to fall
over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.

Short term models suggest that this snow may have a difficult time
making it into southwest Missouri, due to dry air at the surface.
So while radar is showing returns into Missouri, none of the
Missouri observations are indicating that the snow is making it to
the surface.

Ceilings will eventually return to VFR this evening and into
tonight. Look for north to northeast breezes through the night.

Safe Travels.




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