000
FXUS63 KSGF 130453
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1153 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH 2PM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 AT MOST LOCATIONS.  TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
MID 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HEAT INDICES
AROUND 100 DEGREES OR SO.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE CORN BELT/LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST
OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.  THIS FRONT WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK...AND A STABLE AND VERY DRY MID LEVEL ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION (OR REALLY EVEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER FOR THAT MATTER) AT BAY.

THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE
STALLING/WASHING OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS STATE
LINE.  THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPRECIABLE GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
FOR TOMORROW...WITH AREAS OF FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 80S...AND COOLER READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE LOW
80S.  HUMIDITY TOMORROW WILL BE LOWER...THOUGH STILL A BIT
MUGGY...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

THAT BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN A RETURN BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD PIVOT A BIT AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AS OPPOSED TO EAST-WEST.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 90S...WITH COOLER READINGS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OZARKS. THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME SUGGESTIONS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (GENERALLY ALONG I-49
CORRIDOR).  FOR NOW...AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH LIFT OVER THE
BOUNDARY...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS BETTER FOCUSED NORTH AND WEST
OVER THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD FEATURE A RETURN OT LOW 90S
AREA-WIDE...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OF TROPICAL ORIGIN CURRENTLY MEANDERING WEST
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO ROTATE NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.  THIS SHOULD BRING A
ROUND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  THERE
REMAINS SOME CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES REGARDING PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT...BUT FOR NOW...A SOLID HALF INCH OR SO OF RAIN
SEEMS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY.

THIS UPPER WAVE WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN A BIT AND RETROGRADE
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WORK WEEK.  THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION...WITH NUMEROUS SMALL SHORTWAVES/DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.  AS IS NEARLY ALWAYS THE CASE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MCS ACTIVITY WILL POSSIBLE WITH
THE "RING OF FIRE" ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.  THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THAT WE MAY FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THIS AXIS
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH ALL WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE.

SO FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
UNITED STATES.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO THE EXACT
TIMING/TRACK OF THESE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
WHETHER/WHEN STORMS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SGF CWA.  FOR
NOW...MID RANGE CHANCE POPS...25-45 PERCENT...SEEM REASONABLE FOR
THE DAY 6/7 TIMEFRAME FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN
DURING THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...THOUGH AGAIN MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

PILOTS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY
DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOXELL
LONG TERM...BOXELL
AVIATION...FOSTER