Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 261119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
519 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015

It`s the proverbial calm before the storm, and rather pleasant one
at that. Temperatures at this hour are running above typical late
November high temperatures, with readings generally in the mid 50s
to lower 60s. Clouds and gusty southerly winds will keep things
mixy and little change in temperature is expected through sunrise.

A few changes to the forecast today, the most notable being a
slowing trend to the onset of rainfall. Showers will gradually
gather strength and areal coverage through the day across Kansas
into northwestern Missouri, entering far western portions of the
outlook area during the mid/late afternoon hours. A few sporadic
showers will be possible from time to time out ahead of the main
band of rain, but these will be of the hit or miss variety. All in
all, the weather today won`t feature a lot of rain. In exchange
for a slower onset of rain, we will be breezy and warm.

Rain will gradually overspread the region this evening into the
overnight hours a cold front begins to move to the southeast.
Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder across far southwestern
MO, though overall most unstable CAPE values are paltry. Periods
of rain, heavy at times, are expected with a sharp drop in
temperatures behind the front (getting into the 30s, but staying
above freezing).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015

Periods of rain, heavy at times, are expected on Friday.
Conditionswill be rather raw given a stiff northerly wind and
temperatures falling into the 30s (though still staying above

Rain continues Friday night, with the heavier values shunting
toward the MO/ARK state line. Light rain elsewhere will persist.
We will need to watch the freezing line closely during this time
frame as it encroaches on portions of Bourbon/Crawford counties in
KS and Vernon county in MO. This will open a brief window of
opportunity for a thin glaze of ice to form on exposed/mainly
elevated surfaces. Confidence is high enough to mention in the
forecast/HWO with a hundredth or two of accumulation possible.
Potential impacts are more of a nuisance, though trends will
continue to be monitored heading into Saturday.

Better rain chances shunt a little further south on Saturday as
the GFS/ECMWF/NAM take the heavier axis of rain into Arkansas.
Overall, rain amounts look lighter this weekend from the 00z suite
of model output, though slightly slower timing necessitates
extending the flood watch to midday Saturday. Storm total
rainfall amounts in the 2-4" range still look solid, with a risk
of exceeding 5" in areas adjacent to the MO/ARK state line.

The upper low (finally) ejects northeastward early next week with
seasonable temperatures expected into midweek.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 0513 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015

The main concern for the next 24 hours for aviation will be the
lowering ceilings and steady moderate rain moving in with a slow
moving cold front tonight. Ceilings range from VFR to MVFR early
this morning and will gradually fall to MVFR for all airports
late this morning. A cold front will slowly move through the area
this evening and overnight with IFR ceilings by this evening. SGF
and BBG could see potential for LIFR ceilings by 06z tonight.
Winds will remain breezy and gusty from the south today and switch
northerly by this evening with the passage of the cold front.
Widespread light to moderate rain will impact all locations by
this evening and through the overnight.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for

KS...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for



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