Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 282311
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
611 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

After a temporary break in the active weather an increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms will return Friday as a broad
upper level trough comes across the southern Rockies.

A backing and increasingly diffluent flow will along with
strengthening isentropic upglide will cause elevated convection to
break out across southern and portions of the central plains
through tonight. This activity will migrate northward into the
Ozarks region heading into Friday morning with an increasing
coverage through the day. Expect rather widespread showers and
embedded thunderstorms. Marginal instability will preclude any
threat of severe storms Friday but lightning and locally heavy
rainfall.

The showers and embedded storms will persist into Friday night as
the upper level system pushes slowly east. The associated warm
front will be lifting north toward the area as surface
cyclogenesis takes place across the Plains. The progression of
this warm front and evolution will have to be monitored as it will
impact the potential for stronger storms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

The warm front will lift north into the region Saturday as the
upper level trough edges eastward into the Plains. Models differ
on the placement of the developing surface low and warm front. The
WRF suggest the warm sector spreads into the Ozarks region
Saturday which would pose a conditional risk for severe weather.
In any event scattered showers and storms are expected Saturday
but the potential for severe storms will have to be monitored.

The upper level trough will fill and make its way east across the
central U.S. on Sunday. This will maintain considerable cloud
cover and possibly some lingering showers.

Another upper level trough is progged to slide east and southeast
from the Rockies early next week. This system will track farther
south but could bring scattered showers to far southern Missouri
on Tuesday.

Looks like mostly dry weather will transpire during the middle and
later part of the week but models differ on the strength of the
upper level ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

VFR conditions will continue tonight with increasing high clouds.
A warm front will then approach southern Missouri on Friday with
showers and a few thunderstorms overspreading the area starting in
the morning. There is an increasing signal for MVFR conditions by
early afternoon. There will even be limited potential for IFR
around Branson by late afternoon. Meanwhile, winds will increase
out of the east on Friday with some gusts approaching 20 knots
around Springfield.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Schaumann


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