Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 170838
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
338 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Low level moisture continues to stream north into the Ozarks
this morning as low pressure develops across southwestern Kansas.
We suspect that the low levels will moisten over a deep enough
layer to produce areas of drizzle from the predawn hours into this
morning.

A cold front will then move southeast into the Ozarks this
afternoon likely reaching the I-44 corridor around 21 UTC. This
front may eventually provide enough forcing for a few showers and
thunderstorms. However, inspection of evening soundings as well as
short term model soundings indicates that the cap (owing to an
elevated mixed layer) should hold strong at least through early
this afternoon. We therefore kept thunder out of the forecast
until 21 UTC and confined it to southern Missouri.

High temperatures today will actually be warmest behind that cold
front across extreme southeastern Kansas and west-central
Missouri due to clearing skies and cold air advection lagging.
Highs should make the lower 70s over this area. In contrast, areas
of south-central Missouri should only warm into the lower 60s due
to persistent cloud cover.

Any showers and thunderstorms should then push out of south-
central Missouri by late evening with skies continuing to clear.
Depending on how much precipitation falls, we may have to watch
for fog potential tonight across southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Large scale upper level ridging will then build over the area this
weekend. This will lead to a warming trend with highs by Sunday
pushing the 80 degree mark along the I-49 corridor. We will have
to watch for some possible shower/thunderstorm development from
later Saturday night into Sunday morning as a low level jet stream
overrides a passing surface warm front.

Global models then indicate that the upper level ridge will
flatten with at least a couple of short wave troughs traversing
through the region towards the early and middle portions of next
week. This may lead to more opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms. However, confidence in timing of any precipitation
is low. After a mild Monday, temperatures should cool for Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Both the ECMWF and GFS then briefly build an upper level ridge
back over the region from later Wednesday into Thursday before a
potentially more significant trough approaches by late in the
week. Ahead of that trough, temperatures should once again
rebound.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Gusty southeasterly winds will occur at the TAF sites overnight as
low level wind shear will also be a concern. These will be the
result of a tight pressure gradient and strong low level jet being
in place over the region.

A low level stratus deck will spread into the area overnight with
MVFR then IFR ceilings expected. Low level lift will also be
present for some areas of drizzle to occur at times as the low
level clouds spread into the region later tonight into Friday
morning. A few showers will be possible Friday afternoon across
the area, but this will be more spotty in nature. Ceilings should
begin to improve at the KSGF and KJLN sites by Friday evening, but
IFR conditions are expected to persist through Friday evening at
the KBBG site.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Wise



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