Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 251119

619 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A surface ridge was moving across the Ozarks early this morning
and was pushing the remaining precipitation north and east of the
region. While sunny skies are not expected, there should be a bit
more sun through out the day through scattered cloud cover. This
will allow afternoon temperatures to climb to around the 80 degree

Though there is some residual flooding occurring along some
rivers in the western part of the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas,
will be canceling the Flash Flood Watch early as little if any
rain is expected today.

The ridge is expected to slowly move across the area through
today, as another upper level short wave swings north towards the
Ozarks for tonight. Showers should develop in advance of the wave
as early as 00z. The short wave then begins to move through the
region during the overnight hours tonight. The heavier rains with
this wave should stay along the MO/AR state line with around an
inch of rain possible. Will need to watch for heavier rain
potential, but think that the bulk of the rainfall will fall south
of the state line and should not pose any flood risk for the
Ozarks tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

There is very little change in the overall pattern noted by the
models for the coming week and into next weekend. Periods of
showers and scattered storms will be interspersed and mingled with
dry and sunny weather each day this week. No period looks as
though it stands out at this time for heavy rains or severe
storms. However, the models do handle the fine details slightly
differently each day. This week will be a short term, mesoscale
challenge each day with the potential for localized heavy rain
and/or strong storms possible each day.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR ceilings and visibilities will continue for much of this
morning across southern Missouri. There will be patches of IFR
ceilings, especially around Joplin. Flight categories will then
improve to VFR across the area by mid-afternoon with winds
increasing out of the south. Weather models are then indicating
the potential for a band of showers and thunderstorms moving in
from the southwest this evening. We have maintained a PROB30 group
to cover this potential.




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