Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 092040
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
240 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 0240 PM CST TUE FEB 09 2016

Forecast confidence in this time frame is medium to high. Amplified
pattern with troughing across the east and ridging to the west will
keep area in northerly flow aloft. Will see clouds slowly clear
across the eastern Ozarks early this evening as surface high begins
to build into the region. Gradient remains tight enough overnight to
combine with lows in the teens to produce wind chills in the single
digits below zero across the eastern Ozarks and the single digits
above zero across the the remainder of the area by morning.

On Wednesday ridge axis slips east of the area as 850mb-700mb warm
advection kicks in. Models showing some decent frontogenesis in this
area with some higher 850mb-700mb relative humidity. This feature to
be transitory eventually sitting up from southern Iowa through
eastern Missouri/western Illinois Wednesday night as jet streak
drops along the east side of the eastern conus trough and surface low
drops through the Plains. Lift associated with these features
likely to produce a band of light snow from late afternoon into
Wednesday evening, but models have shifted band of snow a little
further southwest, now clipping our area. Did add some
probabilities for light snow late Wednesday afternoon and evening
across the far northeast sections of the forecast area. Cannot
rule out a dusting of snow from this system, but impacts expected
to be minimal. With the dry low levels and gradient tightening
somewhat could mix down some dry air Wednesday afternoon over
portions of the area resulting in a heightened fire weather
concern once again.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 0240 PM CST TUE FEB 09 2016

Overall pattern changes very little Thursday through Saturday with a
dry northwesterly flow continuing over Missouri as area remains
sandwiched between ridging to the west and troughing to the east.
Some fire weather concern on Thursday afternoon as pressure gradient
tightens, and lower relative humidities develop during the
afternoon. Otherwise, expect a brief warm up in temperatures
Thursday and Friday back closer to normal, but another surge of
colder air expected on Saturday as high pressure builds down from
the north.

Attention then turns to a stronger shortwave trough poised to drop
through the northwest flow for the latter part of the weekend. This
will lead to precipitation chances from as early as late Saturday
night into Sunday night. Some decent 850mb-700 mb warm advection
looks to result in concerns for precipitation type, especially
late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. For now will keep
as rain/snow as details of the low level thermal profile still
quite sketchy this far out. At this time amounts amounts do not
look all that impressive (although Canadian model is more bullish
on QPF amounts and appears to be the outlier at this time), and
surface temperatures on Sunday expected to rise into the middle
to upper 30s. Certainly something to keep an eye on.

System looks to clear out by Monday with a quiet and dry period for
Monday and Tuesday with moderating temperatures.

Overall medium confidence in this time frame, with lower
confidence on detail of Sunday system for timing and precipitation
type.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST TUE FEB 09 2016

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Gusty
NW winds will continue the rest of today before relaxing
overnight. A 10kft mid level cloud deck may try to move in toward
the end of the forecast period.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Burchfield


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