000
FXUS63 KSGF 081651
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1151 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2014

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

An area of weakening thunderstorms continues south of
U.S. 60 this morning. Expect to see this weakening trend continue
for the next couple of hours as the overall area of precipitation
progresses southeast with time.

Will still be monitoring for the potential for additional
thunderstorm development this afternoon. Have lowered high
temperatures a bit, especially along and north of I-44, where
copious cloud cover and morning rain will likely keep readings a
few degrees cooler, but it still looks like enough instability
will be present across far southern Missouri for a few storms to
develop along the front later this afternoon. Expectations are for
scattered coverage at best, with a couple of stronger storms
capable of producing gusty winds and large hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

Outflow from weakening convection is pushing through the cwfa.
Main concern will be potential redevelopment over the southern
cwfa this afternoon with daytime heating. With outflow pushing
fairly far the south now, not to sure we will see strong
convective redevelopment but will watch trends.

Precip will linger over much of the southeast cwfa early this
morning, gradually tapering off over the next few hours. Also
seeing some elevated convection well north of the low level
boundary, so will hold onto some scattered showers/isolated thunder
well into the morning hours in some areas, but do expect the
convection over KS into west central MO to weaken with time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

Sfc high pressure will build into the region as an upper level
long wave troughing pushes well east of the area for Wed. As the
sfc high pushes east of the region late Wed night and Thu south return
flow should produce scattered convection in an arc northeast of
the remnant frontal boundary from eastern KS into the four state
se KS/ne OK/far sw MO/nw AR region late Wed night into early Thu.

Convective trends will then shift to the north a bit for Thu night
into early Friday as the low level front lifts north in response
to upper level ridging/increased low level warm air advection.

An unusually strong upper level low is expected to set up somewhere
north of the Great Lakes or Hudson Bay by this weekend with a
broad nw flow pattern over the U.S. Midwest by early next week.
This will push the subtropical ridge back to the south. This will
also sag a sfc front back south into the area early next week with
increased chances for periodic shower/tstms once again as a nw-se
oriented boundary sets up somewhere near or over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

A weak cold front is currently moving through the Missouri Ozarks
this early afternoon. Winds will gradually shift to the north-
northwest with the passage of the front. It will be closer to 21z
before the front reaches BBG terminal. For the rest of the
afternoon...BBG will have VCTS and CB around before the front
clears through. A few gusts for JLN and SGF up to 15 to 20 knots
possible by mid afternoon before winds relax near sunset.

The only question that remains will be for possible fog
development tonight. With the recent rainfall...clear skies
tonight...and light winds...could result in at least some patchy
fog late tonight. Guidance is reluctant to see this possibility.
With this update...will not put it into the TAFs but later
forecasts may need to reevaluate this potential with later
updates.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Griffin