000
FXUS63 KSGF 221736
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1136 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

An upper level storm system was currently moving southward down
the High Plains Region and Rockies. Weak impulses of mid level
energy were moving across a westerly flow from that main storm
system across the Central Plains this morning. Regional radars
especially to our west are showing light snow mainly aloft but
some of it has been reaching the ground across southeast Kansas.
Temperatures are falling this morning behind a cold front that
just passed through.

The main story today will more Arctic air moving in today and tonight.
Temperatures will actually continue to slowly fall or hold steady
in the 20s for most of the day today.

The RUC...WRF...SREF...HRRR continues to show a band of light snow
trying to develop over southeast Kansas into far southwest
Missouri later this morning through the afternoon. This band will
be fighting the cold dry airmass filtering in from the north. With
that said...will maintain scattered flurries today for the
southwestern half of the CWA...from a line near Nevada to Lebanon
to West Plains. Will also mention a chance of light snow from near
Pittsburg KS to Springfield to Branson and west of that line. This
snow will be very light and a dusting to up to an inch of light
snow may possible over far southwest Missouri and southeast
Kansas.

Single digit low temperatures will be likely tonight for areas
across the northeastern half of the CWA...especially areas that
still have a snow pack on the ground. Wind chills tonight and early
tomorrow morning will be between zero and -9 degrees...just shy
of our wind chill advisory criteria.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

A winter storm will be across the southern Plains region on
Monday. The northern edge of that precipitation will stay just to
our south across Oklahoma and Arkansas. Could see a few snow
flurries sneak their way into extreme southern Missouri on Monday
but again the main story will be just the cold early this week.

Temperatures will slowly moderate by Wednesday ahead of another
clipper like system that will move through Wednesday night and
early on Thursday. The GEM...GFS...ECMWF...show a strong upper
level clipper like system moving across Missouri early Thursday
morning. This will bring a chance of light snow area wide with
light snow accumulations possible. At this time it appears an inch
or two will be possible followed by more cold air.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty for the end of this week with
the overall weather pattern and several upper level impulses in
the flow. The overall pattern could be potentially unsettled with
a broad west to southwest flow in the mid levels. There will be
colder than average temperatures and several mid level
disturbances tapping into moisture while moving along in the flow
over the region. So at this time...have continued to broad brush a
couple chances for either light snow or a light wintry mix Friday
through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect a period of MVFR ceilings this afternoon.

An upper level disturbance was forcing some light snow to fall
over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.

Short term models suggest that this snow may have a difficult time
making it into southwest Missouri, due to dry air at the surface.
So while radar is showing returns into Missouri, none of the
Missouri observations are indicating that the snow is making it to
the surface.

Ceilings will eventually return to VFR this evening and into
tonight. Look for north to northeast breezes through the night.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Cramer