Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 181702
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1202 PM CDT Mon May 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
It was a quiet and mild night over extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures held into the 60s under partly
cloudy skies and light breezes.
For today, a cold front will surge across southern Missouri,
bringing a cooler and drier air mass to the region. There are
chances for rain to develop along this boundary today, although I
think most locations will remain dry. Ultimately areas closer to
the Arkansas border will experience the best chances for rain today.
Overnight lows tonight will respond to this Canadian air mass by
falling into the upper 40s and 50s. Winds will shift to the north
through tonight and into Tuesday.
Fantastic weather is expected on Tuesday with highs ranging from
the middle 70s to the middle 60s. Cooler readings are forecasted
in central Missouri for Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Rain chances re-enter the forecast late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. A warm front will shift into northern Oklahoma and
northern Arkansas. Moisture flowing over this feature will force
showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday. A few showers and
isolated thunderstorms could linger into Wednesday night.
As a speed max passes over southern Missouri and exits to the
east, the warm front will be forced back to the south, taking the
focus for rainfall Thursday into Friday morning south and west of
the Ozarks. Temperatures should stay cooler than normal, with
highs only warming into the 60s both Thursday and Friday.
By Friday afternoon and night, rain will again approach from the
west, setting the stage for a stormy Memorial Day Weekend.
While humidity and low level moisture increases across the Ozarks
by Friday, most of the upper level forcing for thunderstorms will
remain positioned over the central and southern Plains. However,
models are signaling shortwave impulses to periodically shift
across the Ozarks warm sector setting off bouts of convection from
Friday through Saturday night.
The most widespread rain from a GFS perfect prog standpoint would
push through Sunday night into Monday morning as the upper energy
finally passes overhead.
Ultimately look for periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms
through the weekend, with much more humidity keeping temperatures
up during the overnight periods.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015
A cold front was pushing through the CWA early this afternoon. A
few showers/thunderstorms were beginning to develop over south
central MO along the boundary, which has already passed through
SGF/JLN, but yet to clear BBG. So have added VCSH wording for a
couple of hours at the BBG site. VFR conditions are expected at
SGF/JLN as high pressure and drier air begin to work into the
area, while BBG may still hold on to some MVFR at the onset from
morning stratus along and ahead of front, in addition to the
convective chances. Things should begin to improve at BBG behind
the front by 20z.