Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 102315
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
615 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2014

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...



.UPDATE...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

Cold front continues to make slow but steady progress south into the
area early this afternoon.  This front should reach the I-44
corridor ~21Z, and slowly sag into the southern reaches of the
CWA by sunset.

An uptick in rain/convection associated with the front is still
expected as weak height falls overspread the area from the west.
Cloud cover this morning has limited instability more than initially
anticipated, so convection may not end up being quite as widespread
as previously expected.  The best thunderstorm chances will be south
of I-44, where a wedge of clearing should allow temperatures to warm
into the upper 80s. Any storms will likely diminish after sunset
tonight, though some post frontal showers may continue into the
evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

The cold front will push southward across southern Missouri this
evening while a shortwave trough exits the Great Lakes region.
Expect scattered if not numerous showers and some thunderstorms along
and just behind the front this evening across far southern
Missouri and eastern Ozarks. Showers may linger along the
Missouri/Arkansas border overnight.

Another pronounced shortwave trough will swing into the northern
Plains Thursday while an expansive surface high pressure system expands
from Canada into the central U.S. With the help of lingering
stratus and steady northerly flow high temperatures Thursday will
only reach the upper 60s to lower 70s at most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

The aforementioned shortwave trough will traverse eastward across
the central U.S. on Friday opening the door for a reinforcing
shot of cool Canadian air. Synoptic scale lift associated this
trough and within the entrance region of the polar jet will be
enough to maintain widespread cloud cover and produce a chance of
light rain or sprinkles. The clouds and precipitation along with
stronger cold air advection will keep highs from only reaching the
lower and middle 60s on Friday.

A general northwest flow aloft will persist through the weekend
into early next week as an an upper level ridge remains
positioned out west.

Another shortwave trough passing through this flow will bring an
increase in clouds and perhaps a few showers on Monday. A return
flow will set up during the middle of next week which will result
in gradually warming temperatures the possibility of showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 558 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

A cold front is moving through the Missouri Ozarks region this
evening. Winds will gradually shift to the north-northwest this
evening and overnight. Left in VCTS for BBG but convection is
slowly moving off to the east of that airport. Ceilings will
gradually lower this evening for all terminals with IFR ceilings
for SGF and BBG by late evening and overnight. JLN will be at the
lower end of MVFR but possibly reach IFR by morning. Stratus will
hold on for most of the day tomorrow with MVFR conditions expected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Griffin






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