Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 242034
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
234 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

After a warm and pleasant day today, a shortwave currently diving
south across the northern High Plains will push into the area
tonight.  The atmosphere should quickly saturate after midnight as
the wave begins to move through, with an area of light rain expected
to develop ahead of an associated surface front.  QPF amounts don`t
look to be terribly high--no more than a few hundredths in most
cases--but have increased PoPs quite a bit given what should be a
high chance of measuring at least something.  PoPs will be highest
across Central Missouri, where moisture and lift will be best
juxtaposed.

Winds will increase out of the northwest Sunday morning behind the
front. A second round of light precipitation will be possible Sunday
afternoon as the back side of the shortwave swings through.  Enough
cold air may have filtered into the area by this time to result in a
few flurries mixed in with the light rain/sprinkles, though it
certainly shouldn`t amount to too much. Temperatures Sunday will top
out in the 40s by midday, and fall into the upper 30s in many spots
by late Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Despite the cold front passage on Sunday, temperatures Monday will
rebound back into the 50s across the western half of the forecast
area as heights begin to rise aloft courtesy of a building ridge
across the Rockies.  That ridge will translate to the east on
Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in a stretch of very nice,
seasonably warm days, as temperatures warm into the 50s and 60s.

A couple of shortwaves will then pass through the area Thursday, and
while their passage appears to be fairly dry at this point,
temperatures will drop back closer to seasonal averages for the end
of the workweek.

Heading into next weekend, the extended guidance suite is hinting at
another strong cutoff low off the southern California coast, with
moisture streaming north toward the region.  This may be our next
best chance of significant precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR conditions will continue through this evening with increasing
high clouds. Low level wind shear conditions will develop later
this evening as a low level jet stream strengthens ahead of an
approaching upper level disturbance. A band of rain showers is
then expected to push through the region late tonight which may
lead to temporary MVFR conditions. Winds will then become brisk
and gusty out of the northwest by late Sunday morning behind a
passing cold front. A deck of stratocumulus clouds will also
develop behind the front with ceilings right around the MVFR/VFR
threshold.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann






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