Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 121132
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
632 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

As expected, the frontal boundary that was parked along the I70
corridor north of our region about this time yesterday has pushed
through the CWA. This has allowed for shower and thunderstorm
activity to move further downstream away from the MO Ozarks and SE
Kansas.

Some shallow "ground fog" may be possible around or just before
sunrise this morning as clouds continue to decrease and winds
remain very light. The better chances for seeing this shallow fog
will be generally south of the highway 60 corridor or where the
heaviest rainfall occurred yesterday.

Today doesn`t look like a bad day if you have outdoor plans. More
of the same in terms of temperatures (generally below average) as
northwesterly flow aloft continues. Clouds will likely begin to
increase just a bit as we head into the late afternoon and evening
hours ahead of the next H5 impulse that begins to roll through the
region later tonight. We maintained at least some storm potential
across far southwest MO, however, the bulk of the rainfall should
stay south of our region closer to the surface frontal boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

As the aforementioned H5 impulse continues eastward on Sunday,
much of the CWFA will remain dry with the highest probability of
showers/storms residing right along the Arkansas and Oklahoma
borders.

Several additional waves will continue to slide through our region
through early next week. Each wave bringing at least a slight
uptick in POPs, however, timing and placement of each impulse is
not at clear within the globals at the moment. Think the better
shot of rainfall will again likely be across our southern zones
through early next week.

Looking into middle parts of next week we`ll finally see a bit of
a pattern change. The pesky northwest flow due to the upper level
ridge over Texas will begin to flatten and become more
southwesterly as the ridge begins to slide eastward across the
southern tier states. This will help boost heights a bit helping
warm us back up to more seasonable norms. Although we`ll be
warming up (upper 80s vs lower 80s) we`ll likely have to maintain
mention of diurnally driven shower and storm activity, especially
if the current indication of additional upper level impulses comes
to fruition.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

High pressure has nosed down into the Ozarks region this morning
with partly cloudy skies and light winds. These light winds have
lead to some fog formation along the Arkansas border, with some
patchy dense fog being reported at the KBBG terminal with
visibilities less than one quarter of a mile. This fog will burn
off by mid morning, with VFR flight conditions expected the
remainder of the TAF period.

Mid and high level clouds will be on the increase this evening and
overnight as the next shortwave approaches the area. This wave may
bring some showers and storms to far southwest Missouri after 06Z,
mainly affecting the KJLN and KBBG sites. Cannot rule out some
showers at KSGF before 12Z but confidence low. Will only mention
VCTS at both KJLN and KBBG for now.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Raberding



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