Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 180523

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1123 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)

It was a cloudy January day over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures struggled to warm out of the 40s,
while westerly breezes continued.

Split flow was converging over Missouri today as a closed off
upper low was lurking over the desert southwest. This pattern will
offer dry conditions through tonight with overnight lows in the

For Wednesday, some sunshine will bring temperatures back into the
50s. Wednesday will be a nice mild day for what is typically the
coldest few weeks of the year. Some shower activity will occur
down in Arkansas, but we`re not confident that activity will make
it into southern Missouri.

However, by Wednesday night, areas such as Oregon, Howell, and
Shannon counties will be in jeopardy of receiving a little bit of
rain. If this rain can get into south central Missouri Wednesday
night, it will shift east by Thursday morning. All other areas
will remain dry.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

On Thursday and Thursday night, the upper low axis will be moving
directly over southern Missouri. We are not anticipating any rain
with this axis as the airmass remains fairly dry.

The upper low begins to shear out and drifts to the north in time,
allowing warm southerly breezes to persist. Temperatures on Friday
and Saturday will warm into the 60s.

The area remain under upper cyclonic flow as southerly winds
maintain a warm air at the surface through Saturday. Although by
Saturday night and Sunday, forcing increases bringing us our next
decent chances for rain across the Ozarks. As of now, there is not
much of a signal for any winter weather since the Canadian
airmasses stay off to the north.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

An IFR stratus deck is over the region late this evening and will
remain over the area into Wednesday. Ceilings are expected to
lower into the LIFR range later tonight. Fog is also expected
overnight as ceilings lower.

Ceilings will slowly improve Wednesday afternoon, but will remain
in the MVFR range. Ceilings will then lower again into the
IFR/LIFR range Wednesday evening as fog development and drizzle
will be possible.




LONG TERM...Cramer
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