Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 221938
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
238 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

Some mid and high level cloud over our southern CWA cover
associated with the upper level shortwave currently tracking
across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi valley region.
Otherwise we have had a mostly sunny day with temperatures from
the mid 60s to low 70s.

Main forecast challenge will be with thunderstorm chances as we
head into Monday night through Wednesday time frame.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

For tonight, a shortwave will track from the northern Plains
across the upper Mississippi valley region with a front moving to
around northwest Missouri into southeast Kansas. Some showers will
be possible across our northern CWA, but the majority of the
precipitation will remain well north of our CWA.

On Monday, lee cyclogenesis will take shape as Pacific shortwave
energy shifts to the east. Out ahead of the low, southerly winds
will increase and will draw Gulf moisture northward into the
region. Lows tonight should be in the 40s with highs on Monday in
the mid 60s to low 70s.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

Tuesday looks interesting for potentially the first severe weather
event of the season. Instability and shear will increase
throughout the day with surface low and trailing front over the
western CWA for much of the day. Environment looks to be initially
capped for a good chunk of the day, but by late afternoon should
erode as upper level energy moves in from the west. NAM is showing
1500-2000j/kg of ML CAPE by late in the afternoon with eroding
thermal cap and around 60 kts of 0-6km bulk shear. GFS is
certainly less bullish with the CAPE but still has several hundred
j/kg and would certainly be enough instability for severe storms
given the 60-70kts of shear. The severe risk would be for the late
afternoon into the evening hours where supercells will be possible.

Another surface low will develop over the southern Plains during
the day Wednesday with the front pushing through the area late
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Thunderstorms will again be
possible along and ahead of this front. The strong northern stream
wave will push through the area late Wednesday night into Thursday
which will shift the convection southeast of the area by Thursday
morning.

Colder air will infiltrate the region behind the strong northern
stream system which will linger into the early part of next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Light winds from the south, along with scattered high clouds are
forecasted. Light rain is expected to remain south of the Arkansas
and Missouri border through this afternoon and evening.

Safe Travels.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer






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