Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 162057
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Surface high pressure over Kansas will shift east into the area
tonight. As this occurs remaining stratus field will be shunted
eastward with just high clouds in its wake. With the light winds
temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 20s for lows.

Short wave energy will cross the Four Corners region Wednesday
morning and will emerge across the central Plains late in the
afternoon. As this happens, low level isentropic upglide will
develop across the southern Plains and will shift northeast into
our region starting later in the afternoon. The low levels of the
atmosphere will be very dry to start off with, but our confidence
is increasing that the dry air will be overcome sooner rather than
later. First off, we may get into a jet coupling situation which
would enhance mid/upper level lift. Additionally, there will be
some weak instability that spreads into the region from the west.
This may result in some weak convective potential.

With that being said, we have moved up the start time of
precipitation. We are expecting it to start across southwest
Missouri from mid to late afternoon and then spread northeast
across the remainder of the Missouri Ozarks Wednesday evening.
Precipitation type remains a tough call. As initial wet-bulbing
takes place, we are expecting a mixture of rain, snow, and sleet
from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. The weak
instability will also aid in sleet potential. We did consider a
mention of thunder, but we would like to see a bit more in the way
of MUCAPE.

As wet-bulbing diminishes, the rain/snow line should initially set
up across far southwestern Missouri Wednesday evening. This
rain/snow line will then shift north and east later Wednesday
evening and especially Thursday morning. At its furthest north and
east point, the rain/snow line should end up somewhere across
central Missouri Thursday afternoon. Not to be forgotten is an
expected loss of cloud ice from late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. This should result in a transition to at least patchy
drizzle with the continued potential of embedded pockets of light
snow/rain.

As for accumulations, we have nudged up snow amounts into the 1-2"
range along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. Amounts across
far southern Missouri (especially in the southwest) will be held
down due to warmer temperatures/more rain. The highest amounts are
expected to occur in the Truman to Lake of the Ozarks region.
Another item we will be monitoring is freezing drizzle potential
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as we lose the cloud
ice. The greatest prospects for any freezing drizzle would be
along and north of a Pittsburg, Kansas to Bolivar to West Plains
line. If this forecast holds, a Winter Weather Advisory may be
required for portions of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Any significant precipitation should be well to our east Thursday
night, though widespread low clouds and drizzle are expected to
be in place across the region. This scenario will continue through
Friday morning as well, with widespread, shallow moisture across
the area. Precipitation type is a bit tricky, with surface
temperatures likely to be just above freezing, and cloud ice
rather intermittent in nature. This suggests a mix of drizzle,
rain and snow, and if surface temperatures do happen to drop below
freezing in a few locations, perhaps a bit of freezing drizzle. At
this point, however, any impacts look to be quite minor.

By Friday morning, a shortwave is expected to be traversing the
Red River valley and Arklatex region, with a surface low/inverted
trough along the Gulf coast. Model trends have been decidedly
south with this system over the last few days, and that continued
with this morning`s 12Z model runs. Right now it still looks like
the southern third or so of the CWA will see some light
precipitation, though if the system moves any further south, even
this chance may dwindle. Temperatures should be warm enough during
the day Friday to support a rain/snow mix, with any lingering
precipitation ending as all snow Friday night. At this time it
appears that precipitation will be light enough to preclude any
measurable accumulations.

Seasonable and generally dry conditions are expected for most of
the weekend, with highs Saturday and Sunday in the 40s. The next
workweek looks to begin with temperatures around normal, though an
Arctic front looks to be setting up to our northwest by the end of
the forecast period, suggesting cooler temperatures by the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS:

Main forecast concern is on cloud trends this afternoon and evening
and corresponding ceilings heights.

12Z KSGF sounding shows low level moisture in the 900mb-850mb layer.
Examinations of short term model trends indicates this layer to
slowly dry through the afternoon from west to east as surface high
pressure shifts eastward from Kansas. Visible satellite imagery
showing back edge of clouds into eastern Kansas. MVFR ceilings will
slowly rise at the taf sites before scattering out later this
afternoon. Of note is the 15Z RAP BUKFIT soundings are slower in
pushing this moisture out this afternoon. Based on latest
satellite trends feel RAP may be to slow. As high slides across
the terminals tonight into early Wednesday expect VFR conditions
with light winds. Mid level moisture begins to increase ahead of
the next wave between 15Z-18Z but any ceilings that develop will
be in the VFR range.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding/Schaumann
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Raberding





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