Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 240539 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1239 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Rainfall is underway across the region as low level jet continues
to increase overhead. Will be closely monitoring how areas of
convection from the Midwest southward to the Gulf coast behave
over the next few hours. With the low level jet focusing to our
north, better low level theta-e advection will focus to our north
with time. Convection over Texas may have a tendency to interfere
with development further north. It is interesting to note the
cloud top warming over Oklahoma during the past few hours, and
what affect this may have on our heavy rain set up.

Over the next few hours, convective elements developing over
northeastern Oklahoma will continue to stream north and train
over areas along and west of the I-49 corridor. This is the area
of biggest concern for flooding overnight. To this point, light to
moderate rain has affected this area, but rainfall rates will be
increasing over the next hour or so and warnings may be necessary.

The risk for severe storms remains low the rest of tonight. We
will struggle to see instability increase, with MUCAPE nearing 500
J/kg by daybreak. That said, the low level jet is strong and a
rogue 40-50mph localized wind gust will be possible over far
southwestern portions of the outlook area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Widespread rain and convection over the Plains will spread
eastward and impact far eastern Kansas and far western Missouri
this evening into the overnight hours. Expect activity to train
from south to north within deep moisture plume ahead of an upper
low in the Great Basin. A steady low level jet will transport a
moisture rich airmass northward and aid and low level convergence
across the eastern Plains tonight.

This deep moisture plume and low level jet will shift gradually
eastward on Sunday as the upper low out west begins to lift
northeast and an accompanying shortwave rotates northward into the
region. With precipitable water values around 1.75 and 850 MB
dew points around 12 degrees Celsius rainfall rates will be
efficient with total amounts accentuated where training persists.

The greatest potential for excessive rainfall and resultant
flooding will extend from southeastern Kansas to the I-49 corridor
of far western Missouri tonight. This potential will spread east
particularly by Sunday night. The Flash Flood Watch may need to be
expanded farther east with later forecast.

Total rainfall amounts through Sunday night are expected to range
from 1.5 to 2.5 inches at most locations with some areas
particularly across southeastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri
approaching or exceeding 3 inches.

The potential for severe weather on Sunday remains conditional and
marginal at best with the extent of cloud cover and precipitation
inhibiting destabilization of the lower atmosphere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Expect rain to taper off during the day Monday as the shortwave
lifts to the northeast. However rainfall will increase again
Monday night as yet another shortwave trough tracks northeast into
the region. Will again have to monitor for the potential of heavy
rainfall.

Otherwise the unsettled weather will persist next week with
intermittent chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Active weather expected over the next 24 hours as rounds of rain
and embedded thunderstorms spread over the region. Overall, any
vis/cig restrictions with rainfall will be MVFR, though a few
bouts of IFR will be possible (mainly at JLN). Southeast winds
will remain gusty throughout the forecast cycle, with low level
wind shear persisting the rest of tonight into the daylight hours
of Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055-056-066>068-
     077>079-089.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday evening FOR MOZ088-090-093>095-
     101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan





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