Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 182259
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 PM CDT Mon May 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

A thin band of cumulus clouds on the visible satellite shows
nicely where the cold front is currently located across the
Missouri Ozarks. A few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
have formed over extreme southern Missouri this afternoon. The
strongest storms may be capable of pea size hail and some gusty
winds. No severe weather is expected though.

Any convection will dissipate and move off to the south of
Missouri by this evening. A cooler and drier airmass will move in
tonight. Dewpoints in the lower to middle 40s across northwest
Missouri will move into the Missouri Ozarks by morning. It will be
perfect open the windows type weather tonight with lows in the
middle 40s across central Missouri to the lower 50s across
southern Missouri.

A very pleasant day is heading our way for Tuesday with high
pressure filtering in and mostly sunny skies. Highs will be below
average in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

The front that will move through this afternoon actually stalls
out south of the area and moves back northward by late Tuesday
night into Wednesday. A wave of low pressure will develop along
the front and travel northeastward. Showers and thunderstorms will
become likely late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. No severe
weather is anticipated but will not rule out some small hail
possible with elevated instability along with frequent lightning.

The models have a little bit of a disagreement on how far north
the warm front moves with the NAM12 a little more aggressive than
the GFS and ECMWF. Most models have the front stopping at the
Missouri and Arkansas state line. The NAM12 has it a little more
northward with some instability developing over the far
southwestern corner of the area. Will watch trends to see if the
surface front makes more of a northward jog and if the instability
can make it into southern Missouri.

Right now SPC has the marginal severe weather risk just coming up
to our southern border for a risk of marginal severe hail and
marginal damaging wind gusts for Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Average rainfall for the mid week system will be about half an
inch over the eastern Ozarks to up to an inch over the western
half of the area.

Otherwise the front works back to the south Wednesday night and
Thursday with drier and cooler air moving back in. Another cool
day on Thursday and Friday. By the weekend...almost the same type
of weather pattern from last weekend sets up again for this
upcoming weekend. A large broad upper level trough develops over
the southwestern and western U.S. with several shortwaves and
upper level impulse moving out across the southern and central
Plains region into the Midwest region.

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected for the
upcoming Memorial Day Weekend. Heavy rainfall will be possible
this weekend with 1 to 3 inches on average will be possible. The
heaviest rainfall will be across the southwestern areas. Will have
to monitor trends for possible hydro concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 551 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible
early this evening around the Branson terminal. Given that
coverage of showers/thunderstorms will be very limited, we have a
VCSH mention in the Branson TAF. Otherwise, VFR conditions and
clear skies are expected across southern Missouri into Tuesday.
Winds will be light out of the north to northeast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann




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