Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 241746 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1246 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2015

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a warm and humid night over extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures struggled to cool out of the
middle 70s, under mostly clear skies and light winds.

A frontal boundary had stalled across southern Missouri overnight,
helping to collect and pool humidity. Dew points were running in
the middle 70s.

For today, a summertime high pressure system will expand into the
region from the southwest, setting the stage for some oppressive
weather.

Look for highs to warm into the low to mid 90s in most locations
today. Heat indices will range from 103 to 109 over areas along
and west of a line from Cassville to Warsaw. Therefore a Heat
Advisory is in effect for these areas today.

We will keep POPS on the low side this afternoon as the lack of
mid level moisture will suppress updrafts from developing into
showers or thunderstorms. There will also be convective inhibition
to overcome.

Another humid night is expected headed into early Saturday
morning. Lows will only fall into the low to mid 70s. We could
observe a cluster of thunderstorms approach the Ozarks from the
northwest tonight. Will need to monitor the Nebraska and Kansas
line for development this evening. Shear vectors would direct
these storms into central and southern Missouri. If perhaps this
does occur, damaging wind gusts will be possible given the
environment.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

The summertime high will continue to expand into the Ozarks region
through the weekend and into early next week. This will facilitate
hot and humid weather. Precipitation chances will be suppressed
as the Ozarks airmass will be sinking with plenty of inhibition
through at least Tuesday.

By Wednesday, the GFS suggests that the summer high will begin to
break down, allowing a surface front to approach from the north.
This mid week frontal system will be our next organized chances
for rain.

The GFS has been persistent with strengthening the summer high
over the western conus toward late next week. This would bring
cooler temperatures and increased chances for scattered
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

VFR conditions will prevail for the TAF period. Some high clouds
will traverse the area this afternoon. Very small chance of a
shower or storm this afternoon and evening but confidence and
coverage was too low at this point to include. Light fog is possible
overnight at BBG. Winds will remain light throughout the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-067-068-078-
     079-089-090-094-101-102.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Burchfield





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