Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 191743
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1243 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

An upper level trough is currently pushing east into the southern
Plains early this morning. The trough will then track east into
the region tonight and across the area on Friday.

As the trough tracks east today a few light showers will start to
develop late this morning into this afternoon across extreme
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri. This activity will be
isolated to scattered in nature and on the light side. This
evening into tonight the showers will increase in coverage and
spread east across the area, especially across southern Missouri.
This activity is expected to still remain on the light side when
it expands in coverage some. Rainfall amounts will generally
range from a trace to one to two tenths of an inch. The lightest
amounts will occur across central Missouri with the higher values
occurring across far southern Missouri. A few light showers will
linger into Friday morning as the trough axis moves through the
area, but will end from west to east by Friday afternoon as the
trough moves off to the east.

No thunderstorms are expected with this system as instability
will be too limited across extreme southeastern Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. The thunderstorm chances will remain south of the
area where better moisture and instability will be in place. Have
gone ahead and removed thunder from the forecast for today into
Friday.

Highs will warm into the lower 70s both this and Friday
afternoons as lows drop into the 40s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

A warmer air mass will spread into the area this weekend into the
middle of next week. Highs will warm into the 70s and 80s each
afternoon. Lows in the 50s are expected this weekend, with lows
only cooling into the 60s early next week.

An upper level disturbance will dive south into the area late
Saturday into Saturday night. A dry air mass will be in place
across the area and this system will not bring much moisture with
it. There are a few models that are breaking out some rain across
the western portions of the forecast area late Saturday afternoon
into the evening hours. At this time feel the dry air mass in
place will limit the overall rainfall potential, with not much
more in the way of a sprinkle or two possible at best. Otherwise
the weekend looks to be warm and dry.

A more active pattern then looks to develop next week as multiple
upper level disturbances track through the area and produce
thunderstorm chances across the area, from Monday through
Wednesday. There will be dry periods during this time frame,
behind each disturbance. However, multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will be possible during the early and middle
portions of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Clouds will continue to overspread the region from the west as an
upper level trough moves across the central Plains and Missouri
Valley. Will carry VCSH at all airports as scattered light
showers over eastern Kansas will move into the region late this
afternoon through tomorrow morning. Expect ceiling heights to
remain above MVFR most locations but will include higher end MVFR
at Joplin were slightly higher dewpoints reside.

Winds are expected to remain southeasterly through the forecast
period as high pressure over the great lakes shifts further northeast
and lee side troughing develops over the high plains.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Terry



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