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000
FXUS63 KSGF 161057
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

...Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Southeasterly winds had developed across the region overnight as
high pressure shifted to the east. These winds will increase today
and become more southerly as the pressure gradient tightens and
ahead of a developing front across the plains. Winds will gusts up
to around 35 mph at times across the Osage plains of southeastern
Kansas and west central Missouri. Wind speeds may approach wind
Advisory criteria during the late morning and early afternoon
hours.

Expect highs today to climb into the lower and middle 60s along
and north of the Ozark Plateau with cooler readings in the eastern
Ozarks.

The increasing wind...warmer temperatures and existing dry airmass
will result in a significant fire weather risk for portions of the
area. More details can be found in the fire weather discussion below.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

The aforementioned front will sag southward into the area Thursday
while a shortwave trough approaches from the west. This will
bring an increase in clouds during the day. While lift associated
with this system will be sufficient for precipitation production
the availability of moisture will be limited. Expect scattered
light showers or sprinkles to move into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri Thursday afternoon. This activity will spread
eastward into the Ozarks but likely decrease in coverage with
time. overall only light rainfall amounts are expected with this
system.

Increasing sunshine and warmer temperatures will return Friday in
the wake of the exiting shortwave trough. The warming will
continue into Saturday with highs reaching or exceeding the 70
degree mark over much of the area.

The next shortwave trough tracking through a progressive upper
pattern will arrive late in the weekend bringing a chance rain and
perhaps some thunder on Sunday.

Dry weather and seasonable spring temperatures will return early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...VFR conditions will occur at
the TAF sites today and tonight. The pressure gradient is
tightening across the area as high pressure pushes across Ohio and
surface low pressure deepens across the central plains. South to
southeasterly winds will pick up and be gusty this morning into
early this afternoon and will then gradually decrease later this
afternoon becoming light overnight. High clouds will increase this
evening and tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A Red Flag Warning has been issued from southeastern Kansas into
southwestern and central Missouri from 11 am through 7 pm today.

Increasing southerly winds from 15 to 25 mph gusting to around 35
mph at times combined with minimum relative humidity values
ranging 20 to 30 percent will produce significant fire weather
concerns late this morning into early this evening.

A departing high pressure system and a developing low over the
Plains will produce a tight surface pressure gradient which will
allow for gusty winds. Areas generally along and north of I-44
will have the greatest risk for significant fire weather
conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ082-083-
     096>098-105-106.

     RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise