Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 211056

456 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Low level moisture remains entrenched across the region and as a
result the stratus cloud deck continues to blanket the region. The
stratus deck is currently clearing from south to north across
eastern Arkansas early this morning, and some breaks in the clouds
may occur across portions of south central Missouri this
afternoon. Elsewhere cloudy conditions will occur through
tonight. Southerly winds will increase today and will help highs
warm into the middle to upper 40s despite the clouds.

An upper level shortwave trough is currently pushing into the
central Plains early this morning. This shortwave will continue
to track east today and into and across the area late this
afternoon into the overnight hours. There is currently dry air in
place in the mid levels of the atmosphere, this will limit rain
chances with the wave today. However, with the low level moisture
in place and lift from the wave, patchy drizzle is expected to
develop today, mainly west of Highway 65. Overnight, better mid
level moisture will start to spread into the region and as this
occurs the drizzle will transition to more of a light rain tonight
again generally west of Highway 65. Lows will only cool into the
middle 30s to the lower 40s tonight. Southerly flow aloft will
keep warmer temps in the mid levels and all rain will occur today
and tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Behind the upper level shortwave trough that will track through
the region this evening and tonight, an upper level low will dig
south into southeastern South Dakota, northeastern Nebraska,
southwestern Minnesota and northwest Iowa overnight tonight. The
low will then stay there and spin across this region Monday
through Tuesday. The low will elongate and phase with an upper
level trough that will dig into Texas on Tuesday. The trough will
then lift to the northeast out of Texas Tuesday night and
Wednesday and push off to the northeast with the upper level Low.

Pieces of energy will move off the upper level low and create rain
chances at times Monday into Tuesday. The better chances will be
across central Missouri on to the north closer to the low on
Monday where the better lift will occur. As the low phases with the
trough the better rain chances will spread to the southeast across
the area, generally east of Interstate 49.

As the upper level trough begins to lift to the northeast,
surface low pressure will develop across the lower Mississippi
River Valley and push through the Ohio Valley into the great lakes
region Tuesday into Wednesday. As the surface low tracks to the
east of the area precipitation will wrap around the low. Colder
air will begin to spread into the region as the trough moves to
the northeast. As this occurs rain on the back side of the low will
change over to light snow. The current track of this system will
have this wrap around precipitation clip portions of the eastern
Ozarks, generally east of Highway 65. There will be the potential
for minor snow accumulations across the far eastern portions of
the forecast area generally along and east of Highway 63 Tuesday
night into Wednesday. For this package generally went more in line
with the 03Z SREF. There area still some questions on the exact
track and impacts on the region with this system as a different
track would change the potential for snow. Continue to monitor the
forecast for the latest details on the system.

Cooler conditions will occur on Wednesday as highs remain in the
30s. An upper level trough will quickly build over the region
on Thursday bringing warm and sunny conditions to the area.
Thursday`s highs will top out in the upper 40s to the middle 50s.

The ridge will then push off to the east as an upper level trough
approaches and moves through the region Friday into Saturday. The
system will usher in a colder air mass into the area with highs
only in the 30s expected on Saturday. A dry air mass will be in
place ahead of this system and moisture return will be limited. As
a result precipitation chances will be low due to the dry air
that will be in place.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 449 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Shortwave energy will push east into the area out ahead of the
mean trough position. Expecting stratus to continue across the
area through the period. Southerly winds will pick up so am not
expecting visibilities to decrease much today/tonight, but may see
some drizzle as lift increases with the upper level energy moving in.




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