Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 221147
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
547 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gulf moisture continues to stream into the Ozarks region this
morning in advance of an approaching disturbance. This disturbance
will force widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today
into Sunday.

While no severe storms are expected, sufficient elevated cape will
facilitate some thunderstorms, which is evident this morning over
south central Oklahoma.

Specific for today, this rainfall will be somewhat scattered in
nature, with the best areal coverage southeast of Interstate 44.
Rain will become more widespread after midnight tonight and into
Sunday, covering the entire region.

By Monday morning, all rain will exit the Ozarks, leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.75 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Deep northwest flow will become established over much of the lower
48 through the upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing an extended period of dry weather.

As a matter of fact, we are not forecasting any precipitation all
next week. Temperatures in the 40s are expected on an afternoon
basis through Thursday. Another shot of Canadian air will then
surge through southern Missouri by Friday, bringing colder
temperatures.

As of now it looks as though Thursday night`s frontal passage will
be dry due to the lack of available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 539 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Recent ceilings have generally been
mvfr/low end vfr, and in general guidance and progged soundings
lower ceilings a bit, but generally keep them in the mvfr cat for
much of the taf period. Will see some occasional light
rain showers. Toward the end of the taf period after 23/06z, it
looks like a better setup beginning to develop for low ceilings
with increased low level moisture south of I-44 with increased
chances for showers as well. An approaching front will still be
west of the taf sites by the end of the taf period, and will
maintain gusty s-se winds and low level wind shear where
appropriate.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA





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