Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 261955
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
155 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

It`s certainly a cold start this morning across the area.
Temperatures ranged from the middle 20s to the lower 30s across the
region. In addition to the cold, widespread (locally dense) fog
has developed. In areas with denser fog, a light "frosty glaze"
has developed on exposed objects. Ground temperatures are quite
warm so major travel problems isn`t expected through the morning
hours, though we can`t rule out a slick spot or two on bridges and
overpasses.

Fog will eventually give way to sunny skies by late morning. A
warming trend should begin today as upper level heights begin to
rise in conjunction with a surface high pressure system pushing
into the southeast allowing for southerly flow to creep back into
the region.

Tonight, low temperatures should be about 10-15 degrees warmer as
warm surface flow takes over. Cloud cover will also be increasing
toward the early morning hours as our next weather system begins
to push closer to our neck of the woods.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

A strong negatively tilted upper level trough will push north and
eastward from the Rockies through Sunday and into Sunday night. A
deepening surface low will also push from eastern Colorado into
the Dakotas. As surface pressure gradient tightens, southerly
winds will also increase and become quite gusty at times,
especially along and west of the Highway 65 corridor.

Periods of showers can be expected through Sunday and into Monday.
The cold frontal boundary is forecast to push through the region
Monday afternoon and evening as another strong short wave
trough pushes eastward from the High Plains. Although instability
will be lacking, a clap of thunder or two will be possible.

Forecast guidance is showing low level dew points increasing to
the lower to middle 50s with the higher values along the Arkansas
border as a strong low level jet helps funnel warmer and more
moist air into the region. That said, Wind shear will be
sufficient for strong storms, however, instability and timing are
questionable at the moment. Regardless, a strong wind gust or two
may be possible with the stronger convection across far south
central Missouri Monday afternoon. Rain/storms should quickly end
from south/west to north/east Monday night/Tuesday morning as a
mid level dry slot spreads into the area.

After an above average weekend in regard to temperatures, highs on
Tuesday and Wednesday will be rather seasonable. Another
strong shortwave is then forecast to slide across the southern
plains and into the Mid South region by Thursday. This will push
a second (albeit dry) cold frontal boundary through the forecast
area by midweek.

A very subtle ridge will begin to spread across the Ozarks by
late Friday ahead of a developing trough across the Desert
Southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to monitor fog development again tonight.

Joplin`s airport should remain VFR as this airmass will be more
mixed and less likely to see fog.

However, Branson and Springfield will have better chances for
reduced visibilities tonight.

South winds will increase significantly on Sunday and become gusty
at times due to an approaching storm system. Sunday night will
also feature showers and even some thunderstorm potential due to
this same system.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Frye
LONG TERM...Frye
AVIATION...Cramer



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