Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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874
FXUS63 KSGF 171059
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
459 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 110 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

A shortwave trough and surface low pressure will track across the
Great Lakes region today while surface pressure builds into the
area. A stratus deck over the area this morning will diminish from
the west by this afternoon as the low level flow becomes more
anti-cyclonic. With 850 MB cold air advection and lingering clouds
temperatures will be on the cool but seasonable side today.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 110 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

A complex if not convoluted weather pattern will prevail the
remainder of the week into the weekend as a series of storm
systems track onto the West Coast. The upper low over Baja
California will lift northeast into the central U.S. by Thursday.
Moisture will stream to north across the lower Mississippi River
and Ohio River Valleys. The Missouri Ozarks will be on the western
periphery of this moisture advection. However expect at least
scattered showers especially across the eastern Ozarks eastward.

The Upper Level trough will take shape out west as the series of
shortwaves come off the eastern Pacific. The upper level trough
will makes it way into the central U.S. by late in the weekend.
There is considerable uncertainty on the evolution of this system
with the potential of an upper low closing off over the region
Sunday. This will result in at least scattered showers by Sunday.
At this time it appears that temperatures will be warm enough to
keep all precipitation all rain.

The active weather pattern will likely continue into next week as
the next upper level trough approaches from the west.

Temperatures will be relatively mild and slightly above normal
for mid January from mid week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 457 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

MVFR to IFR ceilings will be around for the TAF sites this
morning. Clouds will hold on across the area most of today with
gradual clearing by late afternoon and evening with VFR. Winds
will be westerly and light around 5 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...Forecaster
AVIATION...Griffin



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