Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 131730
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017

An upper level ridge of high pressure will start to retrograde
westward today and a slow moving frontal boundary will sag
southward into the region by late this afternoon and evening.
Most areas will remain mostly dry again through this afternoon.
Short term models indicated a small potential for a few isolated
pop up showers or storms possible this afternoon along and east
of Highway 65.

High temperatures will be back in the lower to middle 90s. We are
expecting some "pooling" of surface moisture ahead of that
southward moving front. Because of that pooling potential and most
areas have reached our local criteria for heat headlines...We
issued another Heat Advisory for roughly the I-44 corridor and
northwestward. Our local criteria is 4 or more consecutive days of
100 plus degrees heat index values or a single day of reaching
105 plus degrees at any given location.

The shower and storm potential increases late this evening into
early Friday morning with the best chance of rain between 3 am
and 9 am Friday morning. There will be marginal risk for an
isolated strong or severe storm but no widespread severe weather
is expected at this time. Locally heavy downpours will be expected
but no widespread hydro issues are expected at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017

Friday morning through Friday afternoon will be the best chance
of scattered showers and storms across the area. Temperatures
will be slightly cooler on Friday due to the added clouds and rain
around.

Widely scattered showers and storms will linger through Friday
night into Saturday for extreme southern Missouri before this
system clears the region. The upper level ridge of high pressure
begins to build back into the region on Sunday into early next
week. The ridge positions itself right over the center of the
Ozarks Region by Tuesday and Wednesday with hot and dry weather
expected. Right now, model guidance has high temperatures in the
lower to middle 90s but temperatures could be warmer than that.
We will likely see another heat wave with heat index values
approaching 105 again by middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017

A cold front was slowly moving south through the Ozarks today
assisting in the development of cumulus cloud cover over the
region. The expectation is for showers and storms to develop this
evening and through Friday morning. Impacts to aviation concerns
will be greatest in the vicinity of any showers or storms that can
develop. Otherwise scattered to broken VFR ceilings are expected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>070-
     077>081-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Hatch



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