Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 211145 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
545 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0235 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

The initial wind shift associated with a strong cold front passed
through the Springfield area shorty after 2 AM this morning.
Widely scattered light rain showers are occurring ahead of the
front, with more widespread light to moderate precipitation
occurring behind the boundary. A large area of rain showers will
continue to push east across the forecast area through daybreak.

Just to the west of the CWA (as of the 2 AM hour), rain is mixing
with and then changing to light snow as it moves across south
central Kansas. Expect to see this transition take place from west
to east across the forecast area through the rest of the night
into the early morning hours, as increasingly gusty northwest
winds usher in much colder air.

Short term models do continue to generate a well-formed
frontogenetical band of precipitation over the central CWA through
mid morning, likely in the form of snow given rapidly cooling
temperatures. Right now, it appears that this more intense band
may set up just along and north of I-44 (north of SGF east to
Lebanon and Lake of the Ozarks/Rolla), with moderate bursts of
snow possible later this morning. The ground is far too warm for
any accumulation, though brief reductions in visibility, along
with a short-lived light dusting on elevated surfaces will
certainly be possible.

As alluded to above, the other significant weather story today
will be the wind, with gusts increasing this morning to between 35
and 40 MPH at times. Don`t think we`ll crack Wind Advisory
Criteria, but at the very least, these winds combined with falling
temperatures will make for a rather unpleasant day for being

Temperatures should continue to fall until around mid day over the
area, at which point they will level off or perhaps increase a
degree or two during the afternoon hours. As high pressure begins
to influence the area, winds will decrease, with light and
variable conditions expected overnight. This will set the the
stage for a very chilly night over the region, with temperatures
falling into the upper teens and low 20s. A bit of passing high
cloud cover may keep readings just a hair warmer over central
Missouri, with lows in the mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 0235 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

After a very cold start Sunday morning, temperatures will recover
into the mid to upper 40s by afternoon. This relative warming
trend will then continue through Wednesday, as southwest flow
aloft becomes increasingly amplified over the central CONUS, ahead
of a large upper level low digging south over the Great Basin.

With time, moisture and lift will increase across the region,
setting up what is looking like a very rainy Thanksgiving. A slow
moving upper level trough and surface front look to produce
widespread rainfall, and while too early to refine the details,
extended guidance does suggest that rainfall amounts could be

Once that front passes through late in the week, northwest flow
should usher in another rather chilly airmass.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

Initial concerns are stratus and rain changing to snow. The
changeover to snow has occurred at JLN and should occur at SGF
within the hour and at BBG in the next few hours. Precipitation
will be ending rather quickly from west to east, thus any impacts
will be minor and short lived. IFR ceilings can be expected with
this light snow, with brief bouts of IFR visibility. Stratus will
gradually lift through MVFR the remainder of the day, clearing
during the afternoon hours. Northwest winds will be quite gusty
today, slackening as high pressure moves overhead this evening.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.