Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 241107

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
607 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Apr 24 2016

An upper level ridge remains over the central U.S. early this
morning along with a warm air mass. Early morning temperatures are
currently in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures will not
drop much more early this morning with lows in the middle 50s to
around 60 occurring.

An upper level low is currently over Wyoming early this morning,
and will track to the east and opening up today into tonight. This
will start to push the ridge to the east today. Surface low
pressure has developed ahead of the upper level low across the
plains. The pressure gradient will tighten across the region today
as the low tracks east. Temperatures will be very similar to those
that were observed on Saturday with highs in the upper 70s to the
lower 80s. There will be few more clouds today than yesterday but
still plenty of sunshine will occur. Southerly winds will increase
and be gusty today ahead of the approaching system and gusts over
30 mph will occur at times mainly along and west of Hwy 65 this

A cold front associated with the surface low will track east
across portions of central and eastern Nebraska and Kansas today
into tonight. This evening Thunderstorms will develop along the
front to the west and northwest of the forecast area. The front
will remain to the west and north of the area and not move into
the area overnight. Storms will likely move off the front but
instability will be weaker the farther to the east and with the
better lift remaining west of the area storms will weaken as they
push into the area. A few storms may make it into the area before
dissipating but most locations should remain dry.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Apr 24 2016

The front is expected to remain north of the area on Monday as the
upper level trough and surface low push off to the east. Shortwave
upper level ridging will build over the area on Monday. Can not
rule out an isolated shower/rumble of thunder mainly in the
morning hours as isentropic lift spreads across the area ahead of
the ridge, but expect most location to remain dry during the day
on Monday.

Isentropic lift will again develop, mainly over the extreme
southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri Monday night
into Tuesday morning. Instability will start to develop across
the area as Gulf moisture spread north, but a cap will also develop
across the area. The cap does weaken some for an elevated storm,
but it does not go completely away. Did include a chance for
thunderstorms to develop across the western portions of the
forecast area to account for this. Instability for an elevated
storm will be limited so not expecting strong to severe storms at
this time.

An upper level trough will lift across the plains on Tuesday then
to the north of the area on Wednesday. Instability will increase
across the region ahead of this system but so will the cap. So,
besides a few morning storms mentioned above, think the cap will
keep much of the afternoon hours dry. Surface low pressure will
develop across the central Plains and connect with the front that
will stall to the north of the area, with it being a warm front.
As the Low level jet increases Tuesday evening storms are expected
to develop along and just north of the warm front, at this time
the front is expected to remain north of the area and these storms
should too.

As the low lifts to the northeast a cold front will move east
across central Kansas and central Oklahoma late Tuesday afternoon
into Tuesday evening. The cap will weaken enough for storms to
develop along and ahead of the front. They should be able to move
off the front as the front only slowly moves east, resulting in
the potential for supercells. The front will not push east into
the area Tuesday night, but cold pools from the storms could
congeal and keep the storms going to the east, in more of a line
or line segments, pushing into and across the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Instability will be weaker given the
overnight timing, but will remain strong enough to support a
severe risk across the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Low level
shear will increase with the approach of the storm system, so all
modes of severe weather will be possible, through large hail and
damaging straight line winds will be the main risk. The front will
push across the region Wednesday with the storms/rain chances
ending Wednesday evening.

Thursday will be a dry day then yet another storm system will
track into and across the region Friday into the weekend bringing
additional rounds for showers and thunderstorms to the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Sun Apr 24 2016

Breezy conditions are expected from late morning through the
afternoon as the pressure gradient increases over the region ahead
of an area of low pressure. Will see wind gusts today at JLN/SGF
at around 25 to 28 kts at times. Still expecting only VFR ceilings
at this time through the terminal forecast.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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