Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 232005
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
305 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday afternoon)

It was a fantastic day for outdoor activities for extreme
southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were
approaching 70 in most locations, under sunny skies and light
breezes.

For tonight, we could see temperatures drop into the 40s as clear
skies and light winds help with max radiational cooling. I don`t
think we`ll see any heavy frost anywhere.

South winds will increase on Monday, allowing temperatures to warm
into the 70s. Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday, although
south winds will increase ahead of an approaching storm system.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday evening through Sunday)

Severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday evening and night as an
intense storm system approaches from the west.

Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be common with the most
intense thunderstorms.

There is a bit of a question mark regarding the quality of
moisture return, which is why I`m leaving the risk for tornadoes
out of the Hazardous Weather Outlook at this time. Dry continental
air has spread across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico. So
getting deep moisture quality may be tough to come by.

Residual organized storms could be possible on Wednesday over
south central Missouri prior to storms exiting the Ozarks.

A couple of quiet and dry days are expected Wednesday night
through Friday, however, showers and thunderstorms will once again
be possible from Friday night through the rest of the weekend.

As a matter of fact, there is a heavy rain signal in the medium
range model data that will have to be carefully examined through
the rest of the week.

Soil conditions are nearly saturated across southern Missouri,
which will be sensitive to flash flooding if heavy rain does
indeed spread back into the region. Stream flows and lake levels
are also now elevated.

Area interests are encouraged to monitor for later forecasts and
statements regarding the possibility of heavy rain and flooding
toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect fair weather VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

A ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the nations
midsection, providing calm and tranquil weather.

A surface wind shift to the southeast is expected by Monday
morning.

Safe Travels.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Cramer


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