Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 031727
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1227 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Fog in the main concern early this morning. Clouds continue over
the eastern cwfa, but where it has cleared over the west we have
seen shallow fog which has been dense at times. The visibility at
airport sites has been bouncing around which indicates shallow
and/or patchy fog at those sites. Low lying terrain, hollows,
creek and river valleys/lakes will have the best chances for
seeing dense fog. After some collaboration with other offices will
continue to monitor for a possible short fused fog advisory. Have
already bumped up the fog wording in other messaging.

Another upper level shortwave will move through the area, exiting
late this afternoon/early this evening. Have more clouds and
chances for rw--/sprinkles over our eastern counties to account
for this. It will remain unseasonably cool as we remain on the
"troughy" downwind side of a large upper level blocking ridge
over western NOAM.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

The high amplitude ridge over the west will edge slowly east this
week. One more shortwave will dig south into the OH Vly Wed with a
dry frontal passage for us. A warming trend will then develop late
in the week. Wed/Thu will be cooler than normal with lows well
down in the 40s, especially over the eastern cwfa. Friday should
see a big diurnal swing in temperatures with lows in the 40s and
highs pushing 80 deg F in some spots. With the upper ridge
overhead Sat, most areas should reach the low 80s.

There is good general agreement with global models of a closed
upper low moving slowly out of the Rockies and into the Plains
early next week. Subtle lead shortwaves will move northeast
into/through our area during this time as the upper ridge flattens
out and pushes off to our east. Details on how or in what manner
the upper system moves into the Plains are still in doubt, but
generally we should see rain/tstm chances increase Sunday/Mon with
a persistent fetch developing out of the western Gulf and
increased general lift with the approach of the longwave trough
and lead shortwaves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

VFR conditions will be the rule for this TAF forecast. Scattered
cumulus will persist this afternoon at the sites before
diminishing this evening. Winds will remain out of northwest.
Clear skies expected overnight and Wednesday.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Burchfield


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