Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 270537
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1237 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed
this afternoon along and south of the I-44 corridor. This
convection has developed in the vicinity of a low level
front/convergence zone beneath a weak mid-level short wave
trough. This activity will slowly diminish this evening due to the
loss of daytime heating.

Models are then indicating that a weak low level jet will impinge
upon that low level front later tonight. This is expected to lead
to additional scattered thunderstorm development generally near
and south of the I-44 corridor. We will once again have to watch
for localized flash flooding potential due to the expected slow
movement of storms and high moisture content in the atmosphere.

Overnight storms should then tend to diminish Wednesday morning.
However, additional development is again anticipated in the
afternoon with the best chances again near and south of I-44. The
threat for locally torrential rainfall and flash flooding will
persist.

After low temperatures in the lower 70s tonight, highs on
Wednesday will once again range from the middle 80s to around 90
degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

The upper level pattern will shift to more northwesterly in nature
as we get into later this week. This will open the door for
mesoscale convective system (MCS) potential both Wednesday
night and again Thursday night. Additional thunderstorms will also
be possible during the heating of the day. Global models then
indicate that this pattern will likely persist into the upcoming
weekend. Thus, nocturnal MCSs and daytime pop-up storms will
remain in play. Temperatures should not change all that much with
highs near or slightly below normal.

Global models then continue to advertise that an upper level
ridge will build right back over the Missouri Ozarks as we get
into early next week. This will result in a return to heat and
humidity. While this regime should result in a decrease in
thunderstorm chances, there will still be some potential depending
on where exactly that ridge eventually sets up.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Pilots can expect continued unsettled weather tonight and
Wednesday. Patchy light and low ceilings will develop overnight
leading to potential intervals of MVFR or even IFR conditions. Additional
development of showers and storms may occur late tonight and more
so during the day Wednesday. Localized MVFR conditions will occur
in the vicinity of the showers.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Foster



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