Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 040722

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
222 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0221 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2015

Another day of below normal temperatures will be noted across the
region due to the continued influence of the cyclonic flow around
the very slow moving southeast US upper low. Satellite early this
morning depicting stratus poised to enter the eastern CWA before
dawn and advect westward toward Highway 65 this morning and have
adjusted highs to fit this expectation.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 0221 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2015

Medium range model output continue to keep southwest US as a
closed system which will slow its eastward progression long enough
for a shortwave in the northern stream to become the more major
player in the midweek time frame.

Before then...low level flow to shift to the south as the
southeast upper flow departs into the Atlantic Tuesday. This will
warm temperatures above seasonable normals before a cold front
associated with the aforementioned northern stream wave generates
at least scattered showers and the potential for weak
thunderstorms region wide Thursday lasting into Friday over south
central MO.

00Z Models continue to produce diverse solutions with the upper
low in the longer range. Expectation is for lift associated with
the system to remain over the Southern Plains...likely keeping
rain out of the picture for the SGF CWA next weekend. This will
need to be monitored however.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2015

A deck of clouds with ceilings between 2500 and 3500 feet will
continue to move west across southern Missouri overnight.
Prevailing MVFR is expected at Branson for the rest of tonight,
with Springfield bouncing between VFR and MVFR. Joplin should
generally see VFR through sunrise.

MVFR is then expected to continue at Branson and Springfield into
Sunday evening. Joplin is a tougher call as ceilings may remain
just above MVFR thresholds.

Surface winds will remain out of the north to northeast generally
below 10 knots.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Schaumann is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.