000
FXUS63 KSGF 241131
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY SOUTH INTO
THE OZARKS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50S (AS OF 2 AM) SO FAR
OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS.  READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS AREAS EAST OF U.S. 65 THIS MORNING...WITH MORE MILD
CONDITIONS OUT WEST...WHERE LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION TODAY...AS HIGHS
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.  THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA.  AS THIS TAKES
PLACE...THE AXIS OF ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT HAS RESULTED
IN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE LAST FEW NIGHTS
WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD...AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE REGION.  AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AND INTERACTS WITH THIS
FEATURE...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST WAA FOCUS SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SGF CWA...BUT WITH SOUTHERLY CORFIDI VECTORS AND THE VEERING OF THE
LLJ AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH
WITH TIME INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY
NORTH OF I-44 SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD DIMINISH FOR THE MOST
PART BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY.  A FEW SCATTERED STORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
TERRIBLY WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THOUGH FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY.  AS
SUCH...MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO
THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.  THAT SAID...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN A MORE GENERAL FASHION
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A FEW
DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES INTERACT WITH A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.  EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MANY
AREAS TO SEE A SHOWER OR STORM ON SUNDAY...THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION SHOULD STILL MAKE FOR A DECENT DAY FOR MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND ACTIVITIES.

WARMER MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA FOR MONDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SLOWLY SHIFTING
NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY CAPPED.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMUP FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...AS A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS HELPS TO AMPLIFY THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA. EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AROUND DAY 7...AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS
TO APPROACH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER REGIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH A SLOW VEER TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER TEXAS WILL PROVIDE
SCATTERED CIRRUS COVERAGE...INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE TAF CYCLE. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND ALLOW SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS TO REFINE THE
RISK.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOXELL
LONG TERM...BOXELL
AVIATION...GAGAN