000
FXUS63 KSGF 301101
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Clouds were on the increase early Wednesday in response to an
active northwesterly upper pattern positioned over the region. A
minor shortwave will track through this flow from the central High
Plains into eastern Oklahoma by tonight while our area becomes
positioned within the entrance region of the upper jet. Meanwhile
the 850-700 MB front will be oriented from western Kansas to
western Arkansas while isentropic upglide develops on the 310K
theta surface as far north as far southwestern Missouri.

The result be in an increase in showers from southeastern Kansas
into southwestern Missouri today. There will be a rather sharp
gradient in rain chances with the best chance of showers generally
south of a line from Fort Scott Kansas to Springfield and West
Plains Missouri.

Instability will be limited at best. While a few rumbles of thunder
cannot be ruled out organized thunderstorms are not expected.

The showers will persist from extreme southeastern Kansas into far
southern Missouri tonight but taper off from the north.

The below normal temperatures will persist today with highs
remaining in the 70s across portions of southern Missouri and
extreme southeastern Kansas where clouds and showers will be more
prevalent.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the region from
late week into the this weekend between an upper level ridge over
the Rockies and an upper level trough located over the northeastern
U.S. The upper ridge will expand eastward late this weekend into
early next week allowing temperatures to rise to near normal
levels.

A shortwave trough and associated front are progged to drop
southward into the central U.S. during the middle and later part
of next week bringing a chance of needed rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...An upper level disturbance is
currently push south across the plains early this morning.
Scattered showers are developing across southeastern Kansas and
far western Missouri ahead of this feature. This scattered shower
activity will continue through the morning hours and will affect
all the TAF sites at times.

An area of showers will then push east across Oklahoma into
Arkansas this afternoon as the upper level disturbance pushes to
the east. The bulk of this activity will remain to the south, but
these showers will likely just clip the Joplin and Branson areas.
This activity should then spread out of the area by this evening.

Winds will generally be light and variable through much of the TAF
period. MVFR ceilings and some light fog will be possible tonight
mainly at the KJLN and KBBG TAF sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise