Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 221733
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1233 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

...18z Aviation update...

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Shortwave depicted well on water vapor leading to the development
of thunderstorms over the TX panhandle . This wave to advect into
the Central Plains today however 00z SGF/OUN and LZK soundings
show a significant dry layer that will need to be overcome before
precipitation is realized at the surface. Have reduced POPs over
the region this morning with a gradual increase in the west this
afternoon as the column saturates.

While yet another MCS to impact the Southern Plains tonight, the upper
ridge to sharpen on Saturday which will again keep best rain
chances skirting the western CWA.

Perhaps the greatest impact will be the resultant cloud cover
which will keep the region unseasonably cool.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM
CDT THU MAY 21 2015

00Z models continue to depict good continuity enhancing confidence
for at least moderate rainfall over the Memorial Day weekend.
Meriodonal flow to slowly push east into the SGF CWA during the
weekend with precipitable water reflecting the increasing low level
flow to reach 1.5 - 1.75 inches by Sunday which is 1-2 standard
deviations higher than normal this time of year.

Considered the issuance of a 5th period Flash Flood Watch though
current QPF falls short of FFG and best shortwave energy to arrive
during the day Sunday so while low level jet will be higher than
normal lift will not be fully realized. Partners over southeast
Kansas and western Mo should monitor this situation over the
holiday weekend for updates.

Upper flow to transition to a zonal flow through midweek with
periodic shortwaves generating thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Showers have broken out ahead of a mid level disturbance moving
over the southern plain states this afternoon. The 12z balloon at
SGF indicated a pretty dry air-mass out ahead of the approaching
precipitation shield. Precip is having a difficult time reaching
the ground and current thinking is that a majority of this precip
will not make it to the surface as the wave continues to push
eastward.

Additional light and scattered precip development will remain
possible throughout the period, however, exact timing is a bit
tough to pin down at the moment. Better chances over the JLN
terminal. VFR conditions expected through the period at all three
SW MO Aerodromes

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Frye/Foster








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