000
FXUS63 KSGF 132250
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
550 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2014

...Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

Mild conditions were observed across the region today with a
rather brisk west-southwest wind. The breezy conditions along with
low humidities have resulted in Red Flag...or near Red Flag
conditions over many areas. Those southwest winds may slacken for
a bit this evening, but will increase again later tonight. The
combination of the wind and increasing high clouds will keep
temperatures warmer overnight. We went on the high side of
guidance...generally close to MET numbers.

Temperatures tomorrow will then be tricky for a couple of reasons.
First off, clouds are expected to stick around. We will also see
a weak cold front move through the area in the afternoon. While
those two factors would tend to limit temperatures, morning
925/850 mb temperatures will be supportive of temperatures spiking
well into the 60s and even lower 70s. What we decided to do is
again go on the warm side of guidance...especially across southern
Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

Short wave energy will then emerge from the Desert Southwest and
quickly shear across our region from later Friday night through
Saturday evening. As this happens, that weak cold front will
quickly shift north into northern Missouri as a warm front. The
approach of the upper level energy and increasing low level
moisture will lead to increasing rain chances throughout the day
on Saturday into Saturday evening. Models are still painting some
elevated instability in for later Saturday into Saturday
evening...so we have continued a slight chance for thunder.

Models then get interesting from later Saturday night into Sunday
night. There have been substantial changes in how the global
models are handling two distinct short wave troughs. Earlier model
runs took one piece of energy and dove it south into northern
Mexico...effectively cutting it off. A second wave was slated to
drop down through the Corn Belt region. Well...the 12 UTC suite of
models now keeps those two features phased. If this were to occur,
a few things would likely happen. First off, we would see a more
mature low pressure system develop across the Plains and swing out
towards the Arklatex. The second item of note would be a greater
availability of cold air into this system given the infusion of
the northern energy.

While we are not completely convinced that this evolution will
take place, it is eye-opening. With that said, we have introduced
a rain/snow mix into the forecast for Sunday to get a foot in the
door. This scenario would also result in rather raw conditions on
Sunday with temperatures falling through the 40s and then 30s. We
will certainly keep close tabs on future model runs as continued
support for this scenario may require an introduction to some snow
accumulation.

The good news is that a quick return to dry and milder conditions
is then expected for early next week as the upper level flow
backs around to westerly. Global models then try and bring another
shot of upper level energy through around the middle of next week.
Not sure how much moisture would be available as this weekend
system may very well shut down the northern Gulf of Mexico as a
source of moisture return.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 547 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours for all
airport terminals around the Missouri Ozarks. The only aviation
concerns will be low level wind shear late this evening through
early tomorrow morning with a low level jet developing. Gusts will
relax after sunset this evening but winds will remain elevated
around 10 knots for most of the night. Gusty winds will return
late tomorrow morning before relaxing again with a passage of a
front by mid afternoon tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

Elevated to significant fire weather conditions are being observed
across much of the area this afternoon. As expected, west-
southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 25 mph and
relative humidity values between 15 and 25 percent have been
common across the area.

For the rest of this afternoon, the most critical fire weather
conditions will occur from southeastern Kansas into southwestern
Missouri where winds will be highest. A Red Flag Warning remains
in affect for areas generally west of a line from Osage Beach to
Branson.

Relative humidity still looks to be slightly higher Friday with
winds a bit stronger out of the southwest (15 to 25 mph with
gusts around 30 mph). As a result, we will continue to highlight
elevated fire weather conditions. The cold front passage expected
Friday afternoon still looks on schedule. This will help to relax
winds during the afternoon, with an eventual wind shift to the
north.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-056-
     066>069-077>081-088>095-101>103.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Griffin
FIRE WEATHER...Gagan