Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 310520
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1220 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Widely scattered thunderstorms have again developed this afternoon
in a relatively uncapped airmass. Most of the activity has been
focused across central Missouri in an area of weak low level
convergence. There is a low end threat for a severe storm or two
into early this evening.

Otherwise, thunderstorm activity will diminish for a time from
late this evening into the early overnight period. Activity is
then expected to start increasing again late tonight from eastern
Kansas into portions of western Missouri as weak isentropic
upglide develops.

Coverage of thunderstorms will increase even further on Wednesday
as a cold front slides south through the Ozarks. We may actually
see quite a bit of activity behind the initial surface front as
upper level short wave energy arrives in the afternoon. High
temperatures will be cooler with the passing front and expected
coverage of thunderstorms. Highs will generally be in the lower to
middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Fabulous late summer weather is then expected to end the week as
Canadian high pressure builds into the region. High temperatures
will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s to end the week with lows in
the 50s.

Upper level southwesterly flow will then shift back over the
region early next week and will lead to a warming trend. Low level
moisture will slowly increase, however thunderstorm chances look
pretty low with the main westerlies/short wave energy likely
remaining northwest of the area. We could see a few pop-up storms
in the afternoon if low level moisture is sufficient.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Mainly VFR flight conditions are
expected through the overnight hours at the terminals. Showers and
storms across southeast Kansas may affect the KJLN site overnight
with mainly showers or perhaps an isolated storm. By morning though
expect showers and thunderstorms to become more numerous across
southern Missouri, affecting all the TAF sites after 13Z. Although
prevailing VFR conditions will continue, some MVFR ceilings and
visibilities will be likely within the convective elements. Forcing
for the storms will end by late afternoon or early evening as high
pressure begins to slowly nose its way southward into the area.
Although clouds will not clear until after 06Z, VFR ceilings are
expected after the convection ends.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Raberding



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