Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 070049

749 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

...Potential for Strong Storms and Flooding Tonight...

Issued at 735 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

Line of convection continues to progress southeastward from west
central Missouri and eastern Kansas toward far southeastern
Kansas and southwestern Missouri this evening.

The intensity of the convection in terms of severe potential has
shown a general decrease as storms have become outflow dominant.
However axis of instability with mixed layer CAPE 2500 J/KG
persist just ahead of the storms from far southeastern Kansas
into central Missouri. With that said an isolated severe storm
with damaging winds remains possible within the watch area
through mid evening, especially along and west of I-49.

Will be closely monitoring flood potential as the night progresses
as the line of storms and front sag southward into the area then
stall. Expect additional convection to develop through the
overnight with training storms likely.

The 00z SGF sounding showed a precipitable water value of 1.89 inches.
This along with 850 MB dew points in the mid and upper teens
will be supportive of torrential rainfall rates.

Emergency management and those with interests along flood prone
areas should closely monitor the latest weather information through
the night.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 421 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

An upper level flat ridge is currently situated over the southern
states with a short wave trough over the Appalachians. At the
surface, a cold front extended from northern Missouri through
south central Kansas into the Texas panhandle. A very moist
tropical airmass was in place with PWAT values in the 1.5-1.75" range.
Widely scattered pulse storms had developed over the southern and
eastern sections of the Ozarks this afternoon.

The cold front will make its way southeastward this evening with
the front situated along the I-44 corridor by 12z on Tuesday. A
line of strong to severe storms will be possible this evening with
damaging winds being the primary threat.

Most of the heaviest rainfall will occur along and behind the
front due to a combination of weak short wave moving out of the
Rockies...the slowing of the surface frontal boundary itself and
the development of a south to southwesterly low level jet setting
up overnight. The front will be a focus for low level convergence
with PWAT values near 2 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 421 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

On Tuesday...the short wave moving up out of the southern Rockies
and along the surface front will induce a low along the surface
front which will enhance the rainfall. The strong low level
winds...slow cell motions...and repeated cell development will
create an environment for excessive rainfall across the region.
Rainfall amounts of two to four inches with locally higher amounts
will be possible. Clouds and rain will also keep daytime high
temperatures down in the 70s both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Rainfall will continue on Wednesday but with lighter amounts. By
Thursday...the upper level flat ridge to build and retrograde to
the west. As it does...the surface will begin to meander northward
bringing the rainfall to an end.

As the high builds westward...expect a dry period through the
weekend with a return to more seasonal temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 724 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

Pilots can expect showers and thunderstorms to impact area
terminals later this evening into Tuesday. Gusty winds and MVFR
conditions will accompany the storms. Areas of IFR ceilings will
develop Tuesday morning. Low level wind shear will develop later
this evening into the overnight hours.


MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday evening FOR MOZ055>058-

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.



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