Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 241127
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
527 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

...Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

The region will witness an unseasonably warm day which will result
in a marginal fire weather concern this afternoon. Question exists
on whether dew points will recover into the 40s as models
suggest. Even with dew points around 40 surface RH is already
forecast to drop into the middle to upper 30s, so if the recovery
is slower RH values will be closer to 30% or even the upper 20s.
Main area of concern will be across the west where winds will gust
to 30 mph impacting the potential spread of fire.

A cold front associated with a shortwave moving into the Great
Lakes region will descend through the forecast area this evening.
The atmosphere will be far too dry for anything more than an
increase in mid and upper level cloud cover as the wave moves
through.

The wind shift with the front will though knock down temperatures
closer to seasonable levels on Saturday into Sunday as high
pressure moves overhead.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 344 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Fire weather once again becomes a concern on Monday as RH values
fall into the 30s and surface winds become gusty as the gradient
increases between the departing surface high and our next storm
system deepens over the four corners region.

GFS/ECM have come into closer agreement in closing off this
system...though the ECM remains slower and tracks the closed low
farther north. Thus some uncertainties exist with the placement
of lift and in moisture convergence but it will offer the only
chance of rain during the forecast period as the system approaches
late Tuesday into Wednesday.

For those desiring rainfall...the above mentioned cold front will
make its way into the Gulf this weekend so while winds will shift
southerely ahead of the next storm low level moisture will be
limited.

While not mentioned currently a few thunderstorms on Wednesday
cannot be completely ruled out as there will be a narrow window
in which moisture return may result in just enough instability.
Too many ifs at this point but given the wind fields associated
with the closed low it bares monitoring.

Seasonably cool weather will then continue through the end of the
work week as a progressive open wave moves across the nation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. Moisture will be
increasing in the upper level overnight and eventually into the
mid layer as a cold front approaches Friday evening.
Otherwise...look for low level winds to become gusty later this
morning into the afternoon as the gradient increases ahead of the
front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Runnels


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