Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 200821

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
221 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 129 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

The region was seeing some mild temperatures early this morning
compared to the past week, thanks to strong southerly surface
winds. The winds will remain up through the day with gust from 25
to 30 mph. This will also continue the warming trend with
afternoon highs expected in the middle 50s for most of the area
with some readings around the 60 degree mark along the Arkansas
state line.

The breezy southerly winds will continue tonight along with the
warm air advection. The winds and cloud cover expected over the
region will keep overnight temperatures in the middle to upper
40s. Some locations north of the plateau and across far south
central Missouri may see some light drizzle overnight as moisture
also moves into the area thanks to the southerly winds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 129 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

The south winds will continue through the day Sunday as a storm
system and cold front approach the area. Rain should begin across
the region around mid day. Surface winds will remain gusty with 25
to 30 mph gusts into Sunday evening. As the storm system moves
across Kansas the combination of increasing moisture, ample shear
and some weak instability will allow for some thunderstorm
development Sunday evening. The instability as noted on the NAM
runs from 200-500 J/KG. with the best potential across the eastern
Ozarks. The potential for a strong updraft will be present but
the amount of shear is expected to overcome the forecast weak
instability and limit any severe potential.

The storm system will track across northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri as it heads east across the plains on its
way to the Great Lakes region. Light precipitation is forecast on
the southern periphery of the storm which may chance over to a
mix of rain and snow as the cold air spill into the region behind
a cold front. This changeover and most of the precipitation will
occur for locations north of I-44, and mainly across central
Missouri and no accumulations of snow are expected.

The middle of the week will be dry with temperatures cooler with
highs Tuesday in the 40s slowly warming into the 50s on Thursday.
The next system will begin to push into the area Friday afternoon
and into the weekend with temperatures again dipping into the 40s
for highs on Saturday as the system moves through the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Broken deck of cirrus will continue to stream through the area
overnight. MVFR ceilings have made it as far north as Northwest
Arkansas and Eastern Oklahoma and will continue to move north
overnight. MVFR ceilings will move into the TAF sites into the
early morning hours Saturday. IFR ceilings are possible by
sunrise Saturday and continue through the morning, especially at
JLN and SGF. Low level wind shear will continue overnight at the
TAF sites and last through the day tomorrow. Surface winds will
remain out of the south with gusts to 25kts possible. No
widespread precipitation is expected. Ceilings will improve
somewhat Saturday afternoon before returning to IFR/MVFR Saturday




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