Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 271350 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
850 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 0838 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Vigorous elevated convection continues to develop across eastern
Kansas this morning. Isentropic upglide centered around the 310K
level is tapping into an unstable source of air upstream. Most
unstable CAPE (MUCAPE) values earlier were approaching 3000 J/kg
with enough shear for occasional supercell structures. This
resulted in several reports of large hail across extreme southeast
Kansas. Most stones have been around 1 inch in diameter, though we
did received a report of baseball sized hail in Crawford county.

Recent mesoanalysis indicates the MUCAPE values have come down a
bit, between 1500 and 2000 J/kg. This is due to the airmass being
worked over by earlier storms. As was the case earlier mixed
layer CAPE is still rather low, on the order of a few hundred
J/kg and surface based CAPE remains non existent. As a result,
will maintain our main risks as hail to the size of quarters and
cloud to ground lightning.

Expectations over the next few hours is for storms to continue to
move south. Upper level wind fields and cell motion vectors
continue to favor a southward movement (if not south-southwest).
As a result, little in the way of activity is expected to cross
the MO/KS state line. Convection intensity will wane as we head
through the morning hours, with activity expected to exit to the
south/southwest or dissipate by midday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Another pleasant night across the Ozarks region with temperatures
in the mid 50s over the eastern Ozarks to the mid 60s in the west.
Generally seeing a clear sky across the area.

A thunderstorm complex has developed over South Dakota on top of
the ridge axis in an area where upper level energy was moving in
from the west and beginning to break down that ridge. An
instability axis extends almost due south from the current
convective activity through Nebraska and Kansas. HRRR continues to
develop convection towards daybreak over far eastern Kansas on the
edge of this instability in an area of isentropic upglide. Will
need to monitor for this development in a couple/few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

If convection does indeed develop over the far western portion of
the CWA in southeast Kansas and far western Missouri early this
morning, it will have trouble getting much further east. Much
drier and more stable air exists over most of our CWA, so any
potential of convection today will likely be this morning and in
our far western CWA.

Shortwave energy will continue to track eastward today and tonight
with the main energy remaining north of our CWA. Will maintain low
end precipitation chances over northwest 1/3 of the CWA, but
expecting most areas to remain dry tonight as well.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Front remains to our west on Friday with the best energy from the
upper level shortwave still off to the north. Again not expecting
much in the way of precipitation coverage, with slight if any
chances existing in northwest portion of the CWA.

The surface front and shortwave energy will begin to push through
the area Friday night and continue into Saturday, but
shower/thunderstorm coverage looks to remain scattered in nature
with this system, and it looks like not everyone will get
precipitation.

Upper level ridging begins to build back into the area by Saturday
night and precipitation chances through the remainder of the
extended period look to be minimal at this time. Will also see
temperatures rise back to more normal readings for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday evening. A few
thunderstorms will be possible around sunrise on Thursday across
extreme southeastern Kansas, but they are expected to remain west
of the Joplin aerodrome at this time. Variable winds tonight will
become southeast on Thursday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann



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