Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 102037
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
237 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Sustained southeast to south winds of 10 to 15 mph have developed
this afternoon with the departing surface ridge and in advance of
the surface low developing in the high plains. Warm advection
low-mid level cloud cover continues across the area which has kept
temperatures from significantly increasing over the region today,
but we have still climbed to freezing or above across the CWA.
Main forecast focus will be with some light precipitation on
Sunday, another cold airmass by midweek and more wintry
precipitation possible late in the week into possibly next
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

For the rest of today and tonight, we will see the pressure
gradient continue to tighten and winds will continue to increase
tonight as low pressure begins to track east into the plains.
Warm advection cloud cover will persist and temperatures will
likely remain fairly steady or warm overnight. Precipitation will
be fairly light, but is not expected to begin until early Sunday
morning. Parts of the far eastern Ozarks may have a 1-2 hour
window for some very light freezing drizzle/rain before surface
temperatures rise above freezing, but should not cause any
hazardous conditions to develop. QPF chances will increase during
the afternoon and evening hours, especially over the southeast 2/3
of the CWA as the cold front pushes through.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Rain should come to an end over the eastern Ozarks prior to the
overnight hours and sub-freezing surface temperatures should
occur AFTER the precipitation ends. The cold air behind this cold
front will be fairly shallow and 850mb temperatures should remain
above freezing.

Another cold front will push through late Tuesday night into
Wednesday which will have a deeper cold air mass behind it. GFS
has come into more agreement with the ECMWF from yesterdays 12z
runs in have this be a fairly dry front that moves through. The
cold air will linger through Thursday, however similar to the
current system, we will have strong warm air advection take place
Thursday night into Friday which could bring us a bit of wintry
weather initially before changing over to rain.

Models still struggling in the outer periods. GFS brings up
obscene dewpoints into the low 60s and as a result develops
200-300 j/kg of cape. ECMWF brings the front through earlier on
Friday night with dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s with
almost no CAPE. At this early point in the forecast, will keep
thunder out of the official database for now, but keep this in the
back of my mind.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

A Rather expansive area of Stratocumulus was in place over the
region this afternoon. VFR ceilings will continue into this
evening as a result though some locations may scatter out for a
time. Ceilings will begin to fall to MVFR levels by Sunday
morning as gusty southerly surface winds bring additional
moisture into the Ozarks region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Hatch


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