Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 280543
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1143 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

Band of mixed rain and snow with some patches of sleet moving
quickly off to the east through south central Missouri.
Accumulation in this area will be offset by warmer ground
temperatures plus radar trends indicate that overall intensity
has diminished...further limiting the potential for any
accumulation. Will also anticipate any remaining precipitation to
diminish in coverage to patchy light snow by mid evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

Large scale lift continues along and ahead of a positively tilted
wave. A narrow mesoscale band of snow and sleet has developed from
northeast Oklahoma into far southwestern Missouri during the past
hour or so. Radar returns are jumping to in excess of 50 dBz,
indicated of sleet mixing in with the snow and calls to the Joplin
area confirm this. Definitely observing moderate snow within this
band as well and snow is starting to collect on pavement per web
cams in and around the Joplin area.

The main focus will continue to be with this mesoscale band of
snow and sleet as we head into this evening. This band will likely
persist as it spreads northeast and translates east further into
southwestern Missouri. Snow accumulations with this band will be
up to one inch on grassy/elevated areas, with a dusting on
pavement.

Additional radar returns are developing ahead of the mesoscale
band of snow/sleet and this will produce a mix of rain and snow,
with some sleet pellets from time to time. Prior to sunset, any
accumulation will be light (dusting) and confined to
grassy/elevated areas. After midnight, loss of solar insolation
will be a bit more favorable for accumulation, especially in areas
where temperatures fall to at/below freezing. Have kept amounts
less than an inch for the eastern Ozarks, with the bulk of
accumulation on grassy/elevated areas and some slushy accumulation
on bridges and overpasses.

12z suite of model output along with hi-res short term models
continue to suggest an orderly end of precipitation from west to
east. Exiting south central Missouri during the early morning
hours. Temperatures will gradually fall into the 20s, bringing a
risk of black ice on area bridges/overpasses where any moisture
lingers.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

Clouds may linger and be slow to move out tomorrow morning over
south central Missouri but eventually all areas of southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks will see sunshine by Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures will be seasonably Sunday through Monday.

A stronger cold front will move through the area Monday night and
bring additional cloud cover. The latest NAM and SREF indicate
some light QPF in the models with the passage of the front and
behind it. There fore will mention some scattered snow flurries
possible especially along and north of I-44. This will be very
light in nature and no impacts or accumulations expected. Just
snow flurries along with strong cold air advection Monday night
into Tuesday morning.

Highs will not reach above freezing Tuesday through Wednesday.
Highs will be in the 20s to lower 30s and overnight lows in the
teens. Wind chill values will down into the single digits to near
zero. The weather will be dry with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy
skies through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

The back edge of an area of MVFR clouds will continue to push east
through southern Missouri tonight. MVFR conditions will clear out
of the Branson aerodrome between 06Z and 09Z. Otherwise, scattered
high clouds and VFR conditions are expected into Sunday evening.
Winds will be light.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Runnels
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann




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