Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 012336
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
636 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
A closed off upper level low pressure system was slowly moving
across the deep south triggering thunderstorms across Alabama and
Georgia. This system induced upper northwest flow over the Ozarks,
which is a little different for the month of June. This pattern kept
temperatures comfortable across the region as temperatures had
only warmed into the 60s and lower 70s this afternoon.
Cloud cover also helped keep temperatures in check. Eventually
these clouds will start to break up, and peeks of sun will be
observed in most locations.
This break in cloud cover will cool the region down into the low
to mid 50s tonight.
Chamber of commerce weather is expected for Tuesday as southerly
breezes return. We will also see more sunshine Tuesday with
temperatures ranging from the middle 70s to the lower 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
An upper level ridge will gradually build over the nation`s mid
section Wednesday through Friday, as the first attempt at
establishing a summertime high occurs.
Temperatures will warm into the 80s on an afternoon basis. Our
next chances for showers and thunderstorms could occur Friday
night into Saturday morning. A short wave trough migrates around
the periphery of the summertime high, likely to trigger a
nocturnal complex of storms somewhere either within or near the
This same pattern takes shape through the entire weekend, which
could make it somewhat active in terms of showers and
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Shortwave trough will continue to push
into the Ohio Valley away from the region tonight while heights
begin to build across the Plains into the Ozarks. Biggest question
will be how residual boundary layer moisture manifests itself late
tonight. Guidance suggest that ceilings will lower again into the
MVFR category later tonight and remain there through at least mid
to late morning Tuesday. Thus will continue taf trend in this
direction. Will likely see improving ceilings and perhaps
scattering out after 18Z Tuesday.
In addition, given latest clearing trend on visibility satellite
imagery could be more fog formation as well and thus did add a
little more fog to the tafs. Could see some IFR visibilities for a
period late tonight, especially at KBBG.