Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 272316

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
616 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Issued at 146 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The center of the low pressure system that brought rain late this
weekend and earlier today has shifted eastward to eastern MO
early this afternoon with just a few remnant showers near Fort
Wood and Rolla. Severe weather risk has also shifted east of the
forecast area where storms with large hail are already underway
from western Kentucky to northern Mississippi.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Large swath of cloud cover extending around the back side of the
low pressure system will keep the area socked in with clouds through
much of the evening and overnight hours before clearing out some
on Tuesday. This will keep temperatures from dropping too much.
We`re mainly thinking mid to upper 40s.

We still expect a break from precipitation to continue into
Tuesday with upper level ridging building over the area. This
should allow temperatures to rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

An upper level storm system developing over the Great Basin this
afternoon will drop southeast into the Four Corners region on
Tuesday before shifting eastward into the southern High Plains on
Wednesday. Shortwave energy rotating around the upper trough will
move into the MO Ozarks/SE KS by late Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning. The slow eastward progression of this system combined
with already saturated ground will likely lead to some localized
flooding as several rounds of precipitation spread over the area
through late Thursday night. Instability and shear may also be
sufficient for a few isolated strong to severe storms. We will be
monitoring instability trends through the next few forecast cycles
and adjust severe threat as needed.

We see another break in storm activity for much of Friday and
Saturday before another storm system takes a similar track into
the region late Saturday night and Sunday. Extended model guidance
shows some slight differences with the timing/location of the
system with the ECMWF being more progressive with eastward
movement through Sunday night while the GFS cuts off the upper low
and slows eastward movement.

Do not see thickness output dropping too low through the next will carry near normal temperatures above freezing.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Pilots can expect prevailing MVFR to IFR flight conditions tonight
into much of Tuesday. Low ceilings will linger tonight and likely
lower over the Ozark Plateau. Ceilings will gradually rise Tuesday
but likely remain MVFR at least through midday. Areas of light fog
may also develop overnight.




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