Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 262348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
548 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

...Update to Aviation and to Include Drizzle Tonight...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

We have added drizzle into the forecast for tonight given that
cloud top temperatures are in the -2 to -6 Celsius range across
all but the eastern Missouri Ozarks. Short term models do not cool
cloud top temperatures all that much until perhaps late tonight
across western Missouri. We could still see some shower
development as there is some weak instability present.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 212 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

We had a little more sunshine earlier today before the clouds
finally moved in and that helped warm temperatures into the middle
and some upper 50s. The clouds are back for at least the next 24
hours. Radar is showing some light echoes developing which could
be some patchy drizzle or light showers. We can expected this to
gradually increase and expand later this evening and become
widespread showers after midnight through early tomorrow morning.

The cold front is currently near Kansas City down to just
southeast of Wichita. This front will slowly move southeastward
tonight. It will remain somewhat breezy tonight ahead of the front
and temperatures will remain mild in the middle to upper 40s
tonight ahead of the front. The front will reach roughly the Kansas and
Missouri state line by 3 am and the Highway 65 corridor by 6 am.
Temperatures behind the front will drop into the upper 30s by
tomorrow morning.

Showers will end from west to east Saturday afternoon and exit the
eastern Missouri Ozarks late Saturday evening. Temperatures will
fall most of the day across the area Saturday...eventually
most areas will be in the upper 30s by Saturday afternoon. There
could be a very low chance of a wet snow flake mix in on the back
edge of the exiting showers. If that does happen...not expecting
any impacts and again temperatures will be above freezing in the
upper 30s. Clouds will clear out late Saturday night into early
Sunday morning and temperatures will drop into the middle and
upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 212 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Sunshine and a few clouds will be around on Sunday and Monday with
seasonable temperatures. The next weather feature to watch will be
an Arctic front that will arrive Monday night. The front will move
through quietly with mainly cloudy skies. Northerly winds will
pick up and strong cold air advection will take place. There have
been some potential of maybe some flurries possible in a couple of
the models Monday night and early Tuesday with the passage of the
Arctic front.

Temperatures will be very cold Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will
be sub freezing in the middle 20s to lower 30s and overnight lows
down in the teens. Wind chills will be down in the single digits
to near zero. The weather will be dry through Thursday.

As been previously discussed in earlier forecast
discussions...there will be a strong piece of upper level energy
will move down the western U.S. middle of next week. This system
will become cut off into a slow moving upper level low over the
Four Corner`s Region. With cold air in place most of next
week...this is a system to watch for the end of next week for any
impacts to the region.

The latest model guidance suggest this upper level low pressure
system will move out across the southern U.S. into the Mid
Mississippi River Valley Region by the end of next week. At this
time...will introduce a chance of precipitation Thursday night
into Friday night. Depending on exact track and evolution of this
system will have implications on what type of precip we will see.
Right now will mention the potential for some type of wintry
weather possible end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Ceilings will continue to lower through the MVFR category and into
the IFR category this evening. We will also see areas of drizzle
and rain showers which will drop visibilities down into the lower
end MVFR range. There is the potential for LIFR conditions
starting later this evening at Branson, but confidence is too low
at this time to include in the TAF. The other concern for this
evening will be low level wind shear conditions at Springfield and
Branson.

A cold front will then push through the area late tonight and will
shift winds to the west and then northwest. IFR conditions and a
drizzle/rain mix will continue behind the front into early
Saturday morning. Flight conditions will then improve from later
Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann





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