Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 221930
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
230 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Visible satellite shows advancing area of stratus from the south,
mainly affecting southwest 1/3 of CWA and into eastern Kansas.
This lines up pretty well with low level RH progs. Water vapor
imagery shows the next big system off the west coast and will be
the player for our weather on Friday into the weekend. Ahead of
this feature was an upper ridge which was pushing towards us
currently. A few sprinkles or quick light showers were showing up
on radar over west central MO, but will likely not measure
anything but a trace with that activity this afternoon/evening.

Main focus: for tonight will be with the stratus/drizzle
potential and low end rain chances...warm up for Thursday and
active weather pattern in the long term.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Tonight, will continue to see the low level moisture increase
across the western CWA and especially across eastern Kansas with a
slight chance of rain, but more likely drizzle over these areas
with an increase in isentropic upglide. The cloud cover and
increased low level warm advection will help to keep temperatures
on the mild side across the western CWA with lows in the upper 40s
to near 50. Much cooler temperatures are expected out east with
less cloud cover and lows expected from the upper 30s to low 40s.

On Thursday, we will see the shower chances end from southwest to
northeast during the morning hours and then clearing during the
afternoon as a warm front lifts from southwest to northeast. This
will help to shoot temperatues back up into the upper 70s out
west, but will likely hold off in the 60s out east.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

The upper low will track east and into the high plains by late
Thursday night. Dry line should push east into eastern Kansas by
midday Friday. Friday looks to be quite breezy to windy across the
area ahead of the low and may eventually require a wind advisory. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to occur during the afternoon,
especially across the western CWA in an area of upper level
divergence ahead of the upper low. Instability does not look
overly impressive at this point during the daylight hours Friday
with best instability remaining south of the area. Shear looks
pretty good, but overall severe setup is not overly impressive at
this time. Does look like a squall line will be possible from
around our southern CWA, extending south across Arkansas into the
ARKLATX region. Better chances of severe might actually occur on
Saturday with hail as the upper low passes overhead.

Upper ridging will build back in on Saturday night into Sunday,
but another low will quickly track into the area on Sunday night
with the next chance of showers and thunderstorms. This system
looks to have better instability with it for a severe potential
late in the weekend into Monday.

Another ridge will build into the area behind this system for the
middle part of the week and then yet another upper system will
take aim at the region for late in the week with another round of
convection.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

VFR flight conditions are expected through the afternoon and into
the evening hours at all the TAF sites. Easterly winds initially
will become more southeasterly as the evening wears on leading to
an increase in low level moisture. Winds will remain over 12
knots for much of the period, with some gusts to 20 knots. Better
low level saturation occurs over western Missouri where ceilings
at KJLN will likely drop to MVFR for a time late tonight and early
Thursday morning, with these ceilings pushing as far east as
perhaps SGF, although confidence not high on its eastward
progression. Cannot rule out some patchy drizzle or a light shower
in the lower cloud deck. Any lower clouds should mix out by late
morning Thursday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Raberding


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