Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 220855

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
355 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Convection that has been ongoing across the northern half of
Missouri overnight is finally making its way into our area.
Surface front at this time extends from southeast Iowa across
northwest Missouri into western Kansas. A southwesterly low level
jet and good moisture pooling ahead of the front will produce
potentially heavy rainfall across northern portions of the CWA
especially this morning.

An upper level trough is currently moving through the Northern
Plains. This trough is expected to continue to deepen and close
off today which will push the surface front through the area this
afternoon. Should be enough instability over the area...though
shear will be rather weak...that some storms this afternoon have a
potential to produce some hail or strong downburst winds.

The surface front is expected to push into Arkansas by tonight
which will bring an end to the rain over most locations this
evening and all areas by late tonight. A cooler and drier air mass
will then move in with the frontal passage dropping lows tonight
into the upper 50s over most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

As an upper level ridge develops over the intermountain
west...the region will remain in northwest flow with a cool and
dry airmass over the area through the remainder of the week.
Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below what they normally are for
this time of year.

Models are indicating that it may be early next week towards the
end of this forecast period before the next chance of rain returns
to the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Area of strong convection was located across northern into central
Missouri late this evening. Eventually this will begin to take a
more southeasterly movement and make it into the TAF forecast
areas, towards morning and during the day on Tuesday. Until then,
VFR conditions are expected. As the thunderstorms move over, then
MVFR to brief IFR will be possible. Winds will switch to the
southwest and west with the convection and become northerly by
late in the day as the front pushes through.




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