Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 302317
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
617 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

A shortwave tracking northeast from Oklahoma helped to generate scattered
showers and thunderstorms today on the leading edge of an
associated cloud shield. This activity will continue to spread
east and northeast through late this afternoon. An isolated strong
to marginally severe storm could occur particularly across central
Missouri within axis of better instability. Can`t rule out
isolated convection through tonight but coverage should be sparse.

Expect isolated to scattered convection to develop during the day
Tuesday. Initial development could take place across the eastern
Ozarks in closer proximity to the departing shortwave.

An increasing coverage of convection will take place from the west
later in the afternoon into the evening as another shortwave and
associated front comes across the Plains. Ample instability along
with some increase in deep layer shear will support the potential
for isolated severe storms mainly across western Missouri into
eastern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

The front will sag southward across the region Wednesday as the
shortwave tracks east across the upper midwest. This will maintain
a good chance for showers and thunderstorms.

The front will push south into Arkansas by later Wednesday and
Thursday as surface high pressure builds in from the north. This
will bring an end to the convection for most locations but can`t
rule out some lingering showers near the Arkansas border into
Thursday.

The flow aloft will become more northwesterly as we head into late
week and the weekend as an upper level ridge amplifies out west.
Dry weather is expected most areas Friday. We will have to monitor
disturbances sliding southeast into the region this weekend which
could result in renewed chances for showers and storms. The
chances of rain this weekend remain quite uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

For the most part...seeing VFR conditions across the region with
scattered convection stretching from central into south-central
Missouri. This activity is associated with an upper level wave
that is currently through the region.

Expect the rain to end with the passage of the wave but a mid
level cloud deck will persist overnight. Winds will be light and
variable becoming southeast towards sunrise.

Convection is expected to develop again during the late morning
into the afternoon hours on Tuesday.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gaede



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