Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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358
FXUS63 KSGF 291713
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1213 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016


...18z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

The region remains in a northwest flow pattern with multiple
shortwaves riding down the flow. One such wave over eastern Kansas
was associated with a decaying MCS that entered Western Missouri.
Only a few showers remain from this and don`t expect much else
through sunrise except for far SW Missouri as the majority of the
showers and storms are out in Kansas and are diving into Oklahoma
in a region of stronger instability and better low level jet
interaction. A stationary boundary just south of the Ozarks was
also a focus for showers and storms across northern Arkansas.

Expect conditions Today similar to the past few with late morning
and afternoon showers and thunderstorms as shortwave energy passes
through. Wind shear appears to be slightly higher Today and if
enough instability can develop there will be a conditional risk
for a few severe thunderstorms with damaging winds the main
threat. It appears the best focus for this will be near the
stationary boundary along the Missouri-Arkansas border. Otherwise
highs will be in the middle 80s. Additional showers and storms are
forecast to develop tonight across Kansas and Oklahoma and may
clip far southwest Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

With the upper level flow staying the same through the weekend,
daily shower and thunderstorm chances will continue. It appears
that Saturday night into Sunday morning may be our best chance as
a 45 knot low level jet develops across the plains and noses into
central Kansas. Models are in decent agreement that a complex of
storms will form across northeast Kansas and move into the area
overnight Saturday into Sunday morning.

Upper level ridge of high pressure moves into the area early next
week and persists throughout most if not all of the week. While a
few chances of showers and storms exist Sunday and Monday, beyond
that it will likely stay dry until the end of the week.
Temperatures will warm back into the low to mid 90s with heat
index values over 100 as early as Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
throughout this afternoon, with tempo groups for KSGF and KBBG.
Localized MVFR conditions will occur in the vicinity of
thunderstorms. Confidence is not high for tomorrow morning so a
prob30 group has been added to all TAF sites. Outside of
thunderstorms conditions will be VFR with light winds.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Foscato



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