Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 230451

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1151 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

...Update for 06Z TAFs...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Temperatures are currently in the upper 70s to the middle 80s
across the area this afternoon under mostly sunny skies.

An upper level disturbance will track into and across the plains
tonight then across the region on Tuesday. Clouds will increase
from west to east across the area ahead of the approaching
disturbance tonight into Tuesday. Isolated to scattered storms
are expected to develop late tonight into Tuesday afternoon as the
disturbance moves into and through the area. This activity will
end from west to east and will not be an all day rain.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

An upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the region
on Wednesday, allowing warmer and more humid conditions to spread
into the area. Highs are expected to top out in the upper 80s to
the low 90s with heat index values in the middle 90s to near 100
degrees Wednesday afternoon.

The upper level high will keep the storm track north of the area
through much of the day Wednesday. An isolated hit and miss type
storm is not out of the questions Wednesday afternoon/early
evening but most locations should remain dry.

A cold front will spread into south western Kansas and northern
Missouri by Wednesday evening. Storms are expected to develop
along the front. The front will not move much Wednesday night but
the storms are expected to move to the south off of the front.
The storms should weaken and begin to dissipate as they spread
south into the northern portions of the forecast area and may only
affect locations north of Hwy 54.

The front will then spread south across the area later Thursday
into Friday morning. Temperatures across southern Missouri will
likely warm into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees again as the
front remains to the north. As the front moves south showers and
storms are expected to develop along the front Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. Upper level short wave energy will also
spread across the area Friday into Saturday creating additional
scattered shower and storm chances.

The front will bring slightly cooler conditions to the region late
this week into the weekend as highs in the low to mid 80s occur.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Lower cigs will begin to build into the TAF sites from the south
early Tuesday morning, as a warm front lifts north toward the
area. Expect at least MVFR cigs at all three sites, with at least
a period of IFR possible early Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms
are also expected to develop early Tuesday morning, with at least
scattered activity around for much of the day. Thunderstorm
activity should lift north of the TAF sites by late afternoon and
early evening.

Winds will also be rather breezy from the southeast overnight,
becoming southerly during the day Tuesday. A few gusts approaching
20 KT will be possible at SGF and JLN.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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