Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FLUS43 KSGF 252040
HWOSGF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
340 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-262045-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
340 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Tornado risk.
  Elevated Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated Lightning risk.
  Limited Non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

Southerly wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph can be expected across much
of the area this afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front in
eastern Kansas this evening, eventually forming into a broken
line of storms which will track east into the area by mid to late
evening. then spreading east to near Highway 65 tonight.

Instability and shear will be sufficient enough for some strong
to severe storms, with hail to the size of half dollars and wind
gusts up to 60 mph possible. While the tornado risk is fairly
low, an isolated tornado or two embedded within the line of storms
can not be ruled out over extreme southeast Kansas into western
Missouri.

Frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall can also be
expected with these storms. There will be a limited risk for
flooding over locations that receive multiple rounds of
thunderstorms overnight across western Missouri and southeastern
Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The threat for severe storms will then continue into Wednesday
and Wednesday evening, especially along and east of Highway 65.
The threat for severe storms will be highly dependent on how much
thunderstorm activity occurs tonight, and whether or not this
activity reaches the eastern Missouri Ozarks Wednesday morning.

If thunderstorms reach the eastern Ozarks by Wednesday morning,
the threat for severe storms may diminish for the remainder of
Wednesday. However, if thunderstorms remain absent tonight and
Wednesday morning across south central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks, there will be an elevated threat for severe storms
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and large hail
would be the primary potential hazards across the eastern Ozarks,
with a limited threat for a tornado or two. A limited risk for
flooding will also exist on Wednesday generally along and east of
the U.S. 65 corridor.

Confidence then continues to increase in the potential for
widespread heavy rainfall from later Friday into the weekend.
With soils nearly saturated, excessive runoff will be likely and
will lead to an increasing risk for flooding. While details remain
unclear regarding where the eventual axis of heaviest rainfall
will develop, it does appear that widespread flooding will become
possible beneath this axis of heaviest rainfall.

Additionally, there will be at least a limited risk for strong to
severe thunderstorms from Friday into Saturday across southern
Missouri.

Those with outdoor and travel plans for this upcoming weekend
should pay close attention to the forecast as there is the
potential for multiple weather hazards, including the potential
for widespread flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed later today or tonight for
 extreme southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

$$

Wise


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