Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 291725
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
125 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS DURING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AT KAPF AND KPBI. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, THEY WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY AT KAPF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE 12Z
KMFL SOUNDING SHOWED A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.60 THIS MORNING. THERE STILL WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY, HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE LAKE
REGION CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THESE STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING. MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TOMORROW, HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER AS MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE LAKE AS WELL. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE MORNING. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL SHIFT AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS ENTERED A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW COMING AROUND TO AGREEING THIS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT GOT
PINCHED OFF THE MID LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS
WEAKENED FROM ITS EARLIER STATE BUT NONETHELESS IS CONTINUING TO
AFFECT THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROUGH
HAS INDUCED LOWER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS WELL AND THIS HAS
PLACED OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW. DRIER AIR DID WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND ABOUT A
30% CHANCE IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THE GOES SOUNDER REFLECTS
THIS IN SHOWING PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO NEAR 2" BY THE LAKE.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN STORM COVERAGE WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A MOISTURE SURGE ARRIVING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO NEAR 2" ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE BUT AT ANY RATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO
REGIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE WIND WILL BE S-SW AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. DAY TO DAY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  92  75  87 /  10  60  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  77  89 /  10  50  30  60
MIAMI            78  92  77  88 /  10  40  20  50
NAPLES           78  89  79  87 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...55/CWC



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