Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 310745
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
345 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...GPS MET OBS SHOW PWATS AVERAGING 2.1 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG WITH
CONVERGING WINDS SOUTH OF A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA, ALONG WITH SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES THIS AFTERNOON, WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS. ALL AREAS LOOK
SUSCEPTIBLE TO TSTORMS TODAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT FOCUS PERHAPS
INTERIOR-EAST COAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS.

SOME LOCALES HAVE RECEIVED HEFTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST 2
MONTHS...CASE IN POINT MIAMI WHICH IS CLOSING IN ON 30" SINCE JUNE
1ST! IF RAIN FALLS AT MIA TODAY THIS WILL TIE THE RECORD FOR THE
NUMBER OF DAYS WITH MEASUREABLE RAIN OVER ANY 2-MONTH
PERIOD...WHICH STANDS AT 49 DAYS (SEP-OCT OF 1922). IT`S BEEN
OBSERVED THAT IT`S TAKING LESS RAIN AMOUNTS TO FLOOD STREETS
ACROSS THESE AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED SO MUCH RAIN RECENTLY. SO
ISOLATED STREET FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN TODAY IN THE
HEAVIEST STORMS...AND THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR THAT MATTER.

STEERING WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN MOISTURE SE FLORIDA. THIS WIND FLOW REGIME WILL FOCUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.
FRIDAY MAY BE A SLIGHT RESPITE FROM STORMINESS FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS BEFORE MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS
WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND WITH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN. THIS LOOKS TO SET THE STAGE FOR A STORMY
WEEKEND...WITH LIKELY MORE ACTIVITY THAN NORMAL AT NIGHT ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE DECENT CONVERGENCE COULD OCCUR. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IF A TRAINING CELL PATTERN
WERE TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ATLANTIC COAST...AS THOSE PATTERNS
CAN LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE INVERTED TROUGH
NORTH OF OUR AREA MON-WED WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A LESS ACTIVE TSTORM PATTERN AND
POPS SHOW A DECREASING TREND THEN. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE
SYSTEM BEING MONITORED BY NHC FOR TC DEVELOPMENT REMAINING EAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND WEAK, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...THE MAIN MARINE CONCERN WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. A BRIEF
INCREASE IN WINDS COULD OCCUR BEHIND AN INVERTED TROUGH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KT ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  78  91  79 /  60  40  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  79  91  81 /  60  40  40  40
MIAMI            90  80  91  80 /  60  30  40  40
NAPLES           90  78  90  76 /  60  30  50  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...60/BD


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