Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 040648
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
248 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
AFFECTING FLORIDA THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A BROAD TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE LOOKS TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND POSITIONED ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION OR EVEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH BY SUNDAY.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF IT.
MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL STEADILY COOL AS WELL LEADING TO A MORE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.

THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND COOLING MID LEVELS SPELLS AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH SUNDAY
RIGHT NOW LOOKING LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND A FEW STRONG TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
ACTIVITY STARTS TO EVEN SEE AN UPTICK TODAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE TROUGH HANGING AROUND THROUGH TUE
BEFORE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING A RETURN TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AFTER WHAT
WILL BE SEVERAL DAYS OF WESTERLY. SO CONVECTIVE FOCUS WILL FAVOR
INTERIOR-EAST COAST TODAY THROUGH TUE THEN THE INTERIOR-GULF COAST
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FL MARINE AREA IN TERMS OF WINDS AND SEAS. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS/SEAS WILL
BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TSTORMS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
/GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  93  76  90  76 /  60  30  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  77  91  76 /  50  30  50  40
MIAMI            93  76  92  76 /  60  30  50  40
NAPLES           91  78  91  76 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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