Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 070021 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
721 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
THE RAIN HAS FINALLY MOVED INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
EVENING. THE RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.SO THE ONLY CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS TO UP THE POPS TO CLOSE T 100 PERCENT
FOR THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AVIATION...
RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE EAST COAST NOW AND IS NOW AFFECTING MOST
OF SOUTH FL. CIG ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS EVENING.
FROM PREV DISCUSSION/NO CHANGES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOLID
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT ALONG WITH RAIN/SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z AT NAPLES AND CLOSER TO 09Z EAST COAST TERMINALS,
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NEAR
IFR CEILINGS. W-NW WINDS 10-15 KT BEHIND DEVELOPING FRONT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS GULF COAST AFTER 21Z, THEN 00Z-03Z EAST COAST. NW
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT GUSTING TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER/GUSTIER AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

.WET WEATHER TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING DRY AND MUCH COOLER LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
.ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NAPLES NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL
NOT MOVE MUCH THIS EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND
MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SUNDAY.

SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH EAST INTO THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE OVER THIS AREA DUE TO THE HEATING. THE RAIN THREAT WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR SUNDAY...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY GET UP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE THE HIGHS
WILL ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 50S. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE
METRO AREAS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT LOWER
TO MID 40S METRO AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS WITH THE METRO AREAS SEEING
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME PATCHY FROST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MORNING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE EAST ON MONDAY INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE DRY
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST COAST AREAS AND THE GULF WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE DIRECTION SWINGS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE
THEY LIKELY WILL HAVE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.
THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS FOR SUNDAY.

THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY MONDAY BE LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A NORTHEAST
SWELL BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PEAK OF 5 TO 7 FEET IN PALM BEACH WATERS AND 3 TO 5
FEET IN REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
SEAS ABOVE 7 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE PEAK OF SEAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AT 8 TO 10 FEET. FOR THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL PEAK ON SUNDAY
AT 9 TO 11 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND 5 TO 9 FEET IN THE
NEAR-SHORE WATERS.

THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
COLLIER COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  51  63  41  66 / 100  20   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  53  64  44  68 / 100  20   0  10
MIAMI            53  65  44  68 / 100  20   0  10
NAPLES           53  62  44  66 /  90  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 1 AM EST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ650-651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ670.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB


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