Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 021731 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
131 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE WHERE ALSO SOME
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD WORK INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THEREFORE..THE
VCTS HAS BEEN REPLACE WITH VCSH FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...THE VCTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER KAPF TAF SITE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING OVER TO VCSH. THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING
TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOR KAPF
TAF SITE...THE WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND TO WESTERLY DIRECTION BY
19Z AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. THE
CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE VIS AND CEILING COULD FALL INTO
THE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
TAF SITES...BUT THE TIMING IS NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME TO PUT A
TEMPO GROUP IN.

&&
.AVIATION..BNB/55

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

UPDATE...
AN MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY LEADING TO A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE...ZONES LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
TODAY.

THE 500 MB TEMP FROM THE MIA SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS AROUND -9C
WHICH IS COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO THERE COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
THEREFORE...THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED TO MENTION A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.

&&
UPDATED...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES TODAY. HOWEVER...THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE
MORE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND PUSH INLAND BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND PUSH BACK INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FROM 14Z UNTIL 19/20Z THEN VCTS
FROM 20Z UNTIL 00Z BEFORE GOING BACK TO VCSH FROM 00Z UNTIL 03Z.
FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY ALLOWING FOR
SHOWER TO DEVELOP AFTER 15Z WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN
18Z AND 00Z.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME
OVER THE TAF SITES...DUE TO THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ONCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS GET
GOING OVER THE AREA...THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED FOR THE
AFFECT TAF SITES.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAY CONCURRENT WITH AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE SWINGS INTO THE AREA...MODEL PWAT VALUES ARE
PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 2 INCHES WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/URBAN FLOODING THREAT. QUICKLY
PASSING MID LEVEL IMPULSES DURING PEAK HEATING COULD ALSO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW STRONG STORMS.
HOWEVER...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY AND SHEAR
VALUES LACKING...THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS UNORGANIZED AT BEST WITH
GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

THE FORECAST FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL TRY TO DEVELOP A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS PUSHING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY MODELS HAVE
REMAINED CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS AND IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SOMEWHAT EXTENSIVE AND CONFINED MOSTLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS WEDNESDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS THE H5 TROUGH VERY SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS INTO FRIDAY. STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER WEAK RESULTING IN TYPICAL
WET SEASON AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE
WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS TEXAS ALLOWING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO FINALLY EJECT OUT AND GET ABSORBED BY A
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE.

AVIATION...
TODAY THE EASTERLY FLOW BELOW 700 MB IS GETTING WEAKER. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS IS INCREASING IN STRENGTH
AND VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
ELEMENTS WILL MAKE MORE LIKELY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH THE EAST
COAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
INTERIOR COULD EASILY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION
OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS, WITH SOME
OF THESE OUTFLOWS POSSIBLY PUSHING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. VCTS IS
INCLUDED FOR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 19Z. VCSH IS INCLUDED AFTER 14Z
FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. VCSH IS ALSO INCLUDED FOR APF THIS
MORNING. THE BACKGROUND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 KNOTS AT ALL
LOCATIONS.

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. WINDS WILL STAY GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  84  74  88 /  50  60  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  83  75  89 /  60  70  30  40
MIAMI            72  84  75  89 /  60  70  30  50
NAPLES           70  88  74  89 /  40  50  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...54/BNB


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