Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 232336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
736 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

With Maria to the east, and a weak 500mb low to the west,
instability is forecast to keep SHRA and possibly isolated TS
going through the night and then day tomorrow. Have kept VCSH at
all sites through the night, and tomorrow, with a PROB30 for TSRA
from late morning through the end of the TAF period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 716 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017/

Thunderstorms linger over portions of central Miami-Dade and
Broward counties, with other cells extending from Big cypress
seminole through Everglades City. expect localized downpours and
lightning activity with any of these cells. This convection is
associated with the earlier afternoon sea breezes, and should
gradually dissipate through the rest of the evening hours.
However, enough deep moisture remains over the area for additional
showers and storms to form later tonight. Scattered thunderstorms
remain in the forecast through Sunday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017/

Short term (Tonight-Sunday)...satellite and model analysis show a
broad trough across the east half of the nation, which is
gradually transitioning into a closed upper level low. Model
solutions show this feature lingering around the northern Gulf
coast through the rest of the weekend, along with an associated
area of showers and thunderstorms remaining across most of the
state through Sunday. Sounding data from MFL still shows PWAT
values above 2 inches, which combined with daytime heating will
support afternoon convection again on Sunday, especially along sea
breeze boundaries.

WPC keeps the eastern half of South Florida under a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall this evening and again Sunday, which could
translate in localized urban street flooding, especially along
the east coast metro areas.

Long term (Sunday night-Thursday)...hurricane Maria continues to
move northward, and lifting north of the region by Monday. In its
wake, very dry air will filter into the region with showers becoming
scattered at best early next week. Even drier days are expected
for the second half of the work week with mainly isolated showers
each day.

Hurricane Maria continues to move north while remaining
east of Florida and the Central Bahamas. An associated NE swell
across Atlantic waters will bring seas building to 5-8 ft offshore
on Broward and Palm Beach counties tonight, and swells 4-6 ft at
around 12-13 seconds from Sunday through midweek. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for the Palm Beach waters starting this
evening. Winds will diminish to around 10kts in the Atlantic and
5-10kts in the Gulf by Sunday, with prevailing winds becoming more
northerly through early next week.

Northeasterly swells will result in strong rip currents along the
Palm Beaches, and will likely continue through much of the
upcoming week. A High Risk for Rip Currents is now in effect for
Palm Beach County through Sunday, which will likely have to be
extended further south as we head into next week as the swells
from Maria move in.


West Palm Beach  77  89  76  91 /  50  30  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  78  90  78  91 /  40  50  30  30
Miami            77  91  77  92 /  40  60  40  40
Naples           77  90  76  90 /  30  50  20  10


FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ650-670.


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