Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 260731
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
331 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
ENTERING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT
LIKELY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT PWAT`S ACROSS THE PENINSULA COULD STILL BE AROUND
1.8 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS BUILDING INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THAT THE
DRIER AIR IN THE STRAITS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
PENINSULA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE FAVORED AREA WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LAKE REGION AND IN GENERAL ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH THE
LAKE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND MIGHT PUSH FURTHER SOUTH INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST TO BE
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY IN GENERAL AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  78  90  78 /  40  20  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  91  80 /  30  10  20  10
MIAMI            90  80  91  79 /  30  10  20  10
NAPLES           91  77  90  77 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....60/BD



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