Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 282331
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
731 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER MOSTLY QUIET, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN WEAKENING AND MIGRATING
E AS A TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AN MOVES
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
SHOWN ON LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MOVING INTO THE SE STATES AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SEEMS TO
REACH THE AREA OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
DISSIPATE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE E TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
METRO AREAS AS SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DEVELOP. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTHERN FL.

MODELS SHOW STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FROPA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WHILE ANOTHER
TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL BRING BACK EASTERLY WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, ALONG WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FOR THE LONG TERM...THE TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
WILL PUSH ANOTHER SFC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING VEERING WINDS TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL IN TURN ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA WITH INCREASING POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND EST COAST AREAS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AS THE SECOND FRONT
BECOMES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

MARINE...
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
THE SEAS AT 4 FEET OR LESS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE TREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LOW ON BOTH
COASTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE INCREASING SOME
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  87  72  86 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  74  85 /  10  10   0   0
MIAMI            75  88  73  85 /  10  10   0   0
NAPLES           70  87  72  88 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...13/SI



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