Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 271952

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
352 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

Near term (this afternoon and tonight):
This afternoon, a few showers and thunderstorms have developed
along and behind the Atlantic sea breeze as it pushes into
interior southern Miami-Dade county. Satellite and radar trends
indicate a few more showers may be trying to form over interior
Broward. Light winds below 500 mb indicate slow movement of this
activity, which should dissipate shortly after sunset.

Short term (Sunday through Tuesday Night):
An area of high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
expected to steadily build over the region the next several days.
The associated increase in subsidence will be hostile for further
shower development after today, though sea breeze circulations
over the interior during the afternoon and land breeze
circulations over the Atlantic waters at night may be just enough
for an isolated shower or two. The vast majority of the region
will remain dry the next several days.

Guidance has been too low across the southeast coastal areas for
both high and low temperatures lately, and I have adjusted
forecast temperatures accordingly. Generally near the southeast
coast lows in the upper 70s to near 80 with highs in the lower
half of the 90s are indicated. It should also be noted with many
holiday weekend outdoor activities, the maximum afternoon heat
index will likely be in the 100 to 104 degree range particularly
over the southern and interior areas each afternoon with poor
recovery into the low-mid 80s at night. While this is short of
formal Heat Advisory criteria, people are still advised to avoid
exertion during the heat of the day, drink plenty of water, avoid
excessive alcohol consumption, and take frequent breaks in the
shade or air conditioning.

Long term (Wednesday through Friday):
The high pressure over the western Atlantic is expected to
gradually weaken and move east as heights fall over the eastern
CONUS by mid week. This will induce a more southeasterly flow,
increasing moisture. With the high retreating the mid level
subsidence should also decrease, so the net result will be an
increase in diurnal thunderstorms particularly over the interior
and west and nocturnal thunderstorms over the Atlantic/Gulf
waters. As the high retreats further, flow may become more
southerly by late in the week shifting the greatest focus for
afternoon thunderstorms into the interior/Lake region.


High pressure over the region will bring generally fair to good
boating conditions across the area waters the next several days
with light to moderate winds, seas under 3 feet, and minimal
chances for thunderstorms. Over the latter half of the work week,
the high pressure will weaken and retreat, bringing an increased
chance for showers and thunderstorms.


VFR generally expected though some storms could develop inland of
TMB and MIA over the next few hours. Wind should remain south-
southeasterly at the east coast terminals with the Gulf sea breeze
bringing a westerly flow to APF. Overnight, wind should become
light and variable with a westerly component possible on Sunday


Another hot and dry day is anticipated across the interior and
Lake Okeechobee region Sunday. Minimum RH values in the lower to
mid 30s for several hours appear likely in these areas. Winds may
be a little bit stronger in the western interior compared to today
with 20 foot speeds of 8-11 mph. Given the ongoing drought in the
area, and the likelihood fine fuels have cured since the rain
earlier this week, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Sunday
afternoon for the western interior including Glades, Hendry, and
inland Collier Counties. Over interior sections of Palm Beach and
western Broward, the winds will be a bit lighter and RH values
are not currently expected to reach the 35 percent for several
hours threshold. However, forecast trends in these areas will be
monitored for possible later inclusion in fire weather headlines.


West Palm Beach  74  92  73  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  79  93  78  93 /  10   0   0   0
Miami            79  94  79  93 /  10  10   0   0
Naples           74  89  74  90 /   0   0   0   0


FL...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for FLZ063-066-070.


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