Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 231844
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
244 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE ON-GOING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR HISPANIOLA
CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND STILL DOES NOT
EXHIBIT A CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. A LATE MORNING ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO SHOWED NO SIGN OF A CIRCULATION. AS OF
200 PM THIS AFTERNOON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WAS NOT
CONSIDERING ISSUING ADVISORIES BUT STILL EXPECTED OVERALL
CONDITIONS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM
LATER TODAY OR ON SUNDAY.

EXCEPT FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS...THEIR ENSEMBLES AND ADDITIONAL SUITE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE IN A GRADUAL NORTHWEST MOVEMENT
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND MAY BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY LATE
SUNDAY OR INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT POINT IS WHERE THE REAL
UNCERTAINTY LIES AS THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. THE DISTURBANCE COULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH OR THE DISTURBANCE COULD CONTINUE ON A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK
IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THE MORE DOMINANT FACTOR. SO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES CONTRIBUTE...AMONGST OTHER FACTORS...TO THE
OVERALL UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE.

AS FAR AS IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA...OBVIOUSLY THE PRESENT
UNCERTAINTY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS ALL THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
BUT BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SO FAR THE IMPACTS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WILL BE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH THE
GREATEST IMPACTS EXPECTED ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WITH THAT THE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
BEACHES. THROUGH MONDAY THE FORECAST INDICATES THAT WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
DUE TO EXPECTED WEATHER ARE ALSO HARD TO ASSESS DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. BUT LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST BUT SEVERE WEATHER SO FAR IS
NOT EXPECTED. ANY ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL IMPACTS AFTER MONDAY ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER
FORECAST CONSENSUS TO HAVE A MORE REALISTIC ASSESSMENT OF THE
POTENTIAL HAZARDS.


&&

.MARINE...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
FORECAST. BUT AT LEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUT STEADILY
INCREASE WHILE REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AFTER MONDAY THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO ASSESS ANY POTENTIAL HAZARDS OR
POSSIBLE ADVISORIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  92  80  91 /   0  10  10  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  92  80  92 /   0  10  10  50
MIAMI            80  94  80  92 /   0  10  10  50
NAPLES           77  94  79  93 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....60/BD



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