Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
FXUS62 KMFL 061159
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
659 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016
SSE winds 8-10kts continue across the area. Periods of MVFR cigs
around 2kft are possible through the mid morning at most TAF
sites. Periods of MVFR cigs may also occur this afternoon into
this evening at all sites as a front approaches and the chance of
showers increases. Winds should continue to veer to the SSW and
increase to around 15-20kts G20-25kts after 14Z. Tempo MVFR cigs
may be needed. There is a slight chance of tstms mainly along a
line from APF to FLL north this afternoon and evening and will
deal with that using amendments due to low confidence.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016/
Short term (Today-Thursday)...satellite and model data shows a
deep mid/upper level trough and an associated sfc low/front
tracking NE into the lower Mississippi valley. The trailing front
extends southward across the eastern Gulf waters, and will
approach the Florida peninsula later today.
Expect an increase in showers, along with a slight chance of
thunderstorms mainly over western and northern areas of South
Florida today. A deeper moist air mass will be moving across the
area this afternoon when the best chances for showers will occur.
Coverage remains mainly scattered in latest model solutions, but
POPS will be adjusted slightly for the northern and western portions
of the CWA to high-end scattered for the afternoon hours. POPS
decrease sharply for the southern and southeast portions of South
Florida per most recent guidance, but the forecast might be adjusted
as new data becomes available later this morning.
The current southerly winds will continue to gradually veer to
the southwest through mid week. The front, or what is left of it,
will linger over extreme south Florida through Thursday and
keeping cloudy conditions and mainly afternoon chance of showers
Long Term (Thursday night-Monday)...high pressure builds across the
region and finally clears the remnant front as a colder and drier
air mass descends upon South Florida on Friday. Models are not as
aggressive in latest runs in terms of the coldest temperatures expected
Friday night and are now showing morning lows dropping to around 50
over the northern portions of the CWA. Most of the rest of South Florida
should remain in the lower 60s, including the Atlantic metro areas.
Afternoon highs will struggle to break the low 70s Friday and Saturday
afternoon, then the air mass moderates quickly on Sunday with highs
back to the upper 70s, and climbing into the low 80s by Monday afternoon.
South winds will continue to veer to the southwest with possible
exercise caution conditions developing through mid week. A front
will stall over extreme South Florida, increasing the potential
for showers over the Atlantic and Gulf waters through most of the
work week. Developing high pressure behind the front will push its
remnants out of the area by Friday, bringing stronger winds and
hazardous marine conditons for the upcoming weekend.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 85 68 82 70 / 50 30 30 30
Fort Lauderdale 83 71 82 73 / 30 20 40 30
Miami 84 71 84 72 / 30 20 40 30
Naples 83 72 82 70 / 50 20 30 10