Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 231702
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
102 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TAF SITES LOOK TO GO SE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL DEVELOP, AND IF IT
DOES HOW FAR INLAND WILL IT BE ABLE TO MOVE. CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE WIND
DIRECTION HIGHLY VARIABLE, DEPENDING AS TO WHERE THE TAF SITE IS
IN RELATION TO THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. TONIGHT, THEY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...

WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW CONVERGENCE BANDS ARE LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS AS THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW COLLIDES
WITH WEAKER FLOW TO THE EAST (SEE OUR FACEBOOK PAGE). AS THE
HEATING OF THE LAND OCCURS LATER ON TODAY, AN EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR
HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL MOVE. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE WARMEST SPOT TODAY WILL BE IN
THE INTERIOR. AREAS AROUND NAPLES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
80 DUE TO THE MARITIME AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE PALM BEACH
COAST. HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY DUE TO SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE NEAR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE HENDRY/COLLIER COUNTY LINE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH BUT SHOULD WASH OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR.

BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS IT DOES...A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STALLS THE FRONT ALONG THE KEYS.

MARINE...
THE NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT LATER TODAY ALLOWING SEAS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 2 TO
3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  85  71  86 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  85  74  87 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            70  86  73  87 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           66  83  67  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI



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