Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 010035 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
835 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS THE STRONGER COLD
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
THIS EVENING. SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME TO THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

AVIATION...

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS SINKING INTO CENTRAL FL, BEHIND A
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS, WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT FROM THE NW. VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

.MUCH COOLER AIR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS...

SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS BY THIS EVENING PUSHING THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...ISOLATED POPS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING DRY FOR THIS HALLOWEEN EVENING INTO
THE HALLOWEEN NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINA COAST ON
SATURDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA SATURDAY AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL BE DRY WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL DELIVER MUCH COOLER AIR TO
SOUTH FLORIDA.

LOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, EXCEPT AROUND 50 EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND AROUND 40
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL STILL BE AROUND 5 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS TO AROUND
10 MPH OVER THE METRO AREAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 30S WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING MORE TO A NORTH/NORTHEAST DIRECTION ON
SUNDAY...AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL START TO SLOWLY RECOVER BUT WILL
STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE LOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR THE
RECORD LOWS AND RECORD COOL MAXIMUMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MORE
ON THIS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND
FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, WHICH IN TURN
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TO NEAR CLIMO CONDITIONS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND BREEZY TONIGHT, INCREASING
OVER THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...A SCA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL OF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY SWING TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 FEET ON SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO 8 TO 10 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT...REMAINING THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR
THE GULF SIDE...THE NEAR-SHORE SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 7 FEET
ON SATURDAY AS THE OFFSHORE SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 10 TO 12
FEET. THE GULF WATER SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY
SUNDAY TO LESS THAN 7 FEET. GULF STREAM WAVES NEAR 10 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF COAST BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE ATLANTIC RIP CURRENTS BUILDING LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE FORECAST LOWS...RECORD LOWS...FORECAST HIGHS...AND
RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY 11/2/14.

             11/2/14              11/2/14
CITIES    FORECAST LOWS         RECORD LOWS
MIA            51                54 - 1993
FLL            50                51 - 1957
PBI            47                51 - 1993
APF            48                47 - 1993

            11/2/14              11/2/14
CITIES    FORECAST MAX    RECORD COOL MAXIMUM HIGHS
MIA            74                73 - 1949/1931
FLL            73                72 - 1931
PBI            72                72 - 1964
APF            72                75 - 1962

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE BELOW 35 PERCENT
BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ERC (ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT) WILL BE IN THE LOWER
20S AND THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH. THEREFORE...NO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  72  47  72 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  63  74  51  73 /  10   0   0  10
MIAMI            64  76  51  74 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           64  70  48  72 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLZ173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB



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