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000
FXUS64 KSHV 111559
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1059 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING BUT LOW CLOUDS
ARE SLOW TO MOVE OUT ACROSS MUCH OF N LA AND SCNTRL AR AND FALLING
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO LAGGING OVER THESE SAME AREAS. SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE
FANFARE AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
REMOVE CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN AND SERN ZONES AND TAPER BACK TO
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES NEEDED. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO EXPAND SW ACROSS SE AR AND MUCH OF NCNTRL
LA THIS MORNING ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH
EXTENDS FROM JUST OFF THE SE TX COAST INTO CNTRL/NE LA AND CNTRL MS.
THESE CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT ACROSS THE MLU TERMINAL UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING/GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT. CAN/T RULE OUT
BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN SHV/ELD THROUGH 18Z...BEFORE ADDITIONAL LOW VFR
CU DEVELOPS FARTHER N ACROSS AR AND SHIFTS S ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH
OF THE CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL SCT CU FIELD MAY FORM AND SHIFT S
ALONG A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SINK S ACROSS THE REGION
AROUND/AFTER 06Z. THIS CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH FROM N TO S ACROSS
EXTREME E TX/N LA BETWEEN 15-18Z SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF CIRRUS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD E ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
N WINDS 7-11KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.
HOWEVER...N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KTS WITH THE SECONDARY FROPA
AFTER 06Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013/

DISCUSSION...
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST TO THE S AND E
OF US PROVIDED PARTS OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY IS FCST TO REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY
TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IN ITS VICINITY. DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CHURN ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWD DOWN THE PLAINS TODAY...WHICH
WILL FORCE ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OUT AND BRING A 1026 SFC RIDGE
IN ITS WAKE.

HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW MOVES E AND AN UPPER RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE RESIDENT UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW OVER BAJA THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY BEGIN AN EWD TREK TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONSEQUENTLY
BE ON THE UPTICK BY MIDWEEK...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS TX.
A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT  ARE FCST TO
MERGE WITH THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE AND PROLONG OUR RAIN CHANCES
BEYOND THE DAY 7 TIMEFRAME...AS THE FLOW DAMPENS AND THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMP-WISE...A SHORT STINT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S COLD FRONT...BUT REASONABLE MEX
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. /12/

AVIATION...
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXPECTED THROUGH 11/15Z IN THE WAKE
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID/LATE MORNING. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED BY 11/18Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH
5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  56  77  50  82 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  79  54  75  48  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEQ  77  47  75  45  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  77  52  74  50  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
ELD  77  51  73  46  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  80  55  77  51  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  80  55  77  50  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  81  57  81  51  83 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/15