Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 011616
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1116 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MINOR CHANGE TO THE CURRENT ZONES BY RAISING THE HIGHS FOR TODAY
BY A DEGREE. NOT OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS/PATCHY FOG IS MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL AFFECT MOST TAF SITES FOR THE
FIRST FEW HRS OF THE PERIOD. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO P6SM BY MID
MORNING BUT CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO LIFT. CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ONGOING OVER N TX SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE ARKLATEX DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AND WILL
POSSIBLY AFFECT MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMLU.
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WILL
MOST LIKELY BE ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR. MORE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS STRONG SLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STREAM GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...WITH THE BAND OF CONVECTION WEAKENING AT
THIS TIME AS IN MOVES ACROSS LATIMER...LE FLORE...PUSHMATAHA...AND
CHOCTAW COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH SOME LOCALLY MODERATE
SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT OF FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS.

THE FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING/S WEATHER WILL BE WITH
THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS. AS
THIS DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING...THE
MODELS AGAIN ARE SHOWING THE BEST INSTABILITY MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST...MORE SURROUNDING OUR AREA RATHER THAN OVER IT.
HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TRENDS...BELIEVE
WE HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SPC ONCE AGAIN HAS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY...WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT IT TO BE ANOTHER WARM
DAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE THREAT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RELATIVE ZONAL FOR
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX FOR FRIDAY. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD LIKELY BE ON FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THESE DAYS AS WELL...WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE THESE
DAYS...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO NORTH NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY EVENING
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE COLDER AIR FINALLY SURGING SOUTH DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE THE ONE DRY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON EASTER SUNDAY...WITH COOL
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE EASTER BUNNY
MAY LUCK OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND DEVELOPING. /03/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  64  81  67 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  82  63  83  66 /  20  20  30  10
DEQ  77  61  78  63 /  40  40  30  30
TXK  78  63  79  66 /  40  30  30  20
ELD  78  63  80  65 /  30  30  30  10
TYR  81  65  82  67 /  40  20  30  10
GGG  81  64  82  67 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  82  66  84  68 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



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