Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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246
FXUS64 KSHV 302312
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
612 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms intermittently
affecting ktxk, keld and kmlu early this evening. Can not rule out
the other TAF sites getting some rain later this evening as an
outflow boundary pushing southwest thus nearing kshv has aided to
generate isolated shower activity. Have therefore elected to hold
on to either VCSH, VCTS, -SHRA in one form or another for all TAF
sites until several hours after sunset. Once the convection
diminishes, another round of VFR to IFR fog and MVFR to IFR CIGS
will be possible overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The cirrus continues to thin from the large morning MCS, but now
is being added to by a line of Thunderstorms along the old outflow
boundary from SW AR into N and central LA which is lifting to the
Northeast and well out of the CWA by tonight. There is also a bit
of new popcorn over NE TX near Lindale, Yantis and Mineola, but
overall trends may trickle out sooner than last night. However,
some additional heating this afternoon will allow this and other
areas to perhaps expand and cluster in the upper 80s. The upper
level shear axis is showing up well on the water vapor and is
over the heart of the area this mid afternoon moving East.

The overall pattern remains unsettle to our West and the
nocturnal boundary machine will linger as the next upper low is
over AZ and only moving East very slowly. It will weaken, but
lower heights over the TX coastal bend keep us in a favorable slot
for moisture off the Gulf with heating. Also the cool front will
take all week to get here by Sunday. Looks like June will be
wetter than average to start, but quite manageable. The higher
totals will be well to our SW looking at the WPC 5 and 7 day
outlooks. The SPC does well to keep a general Thunderstorm outlook
to start the week with abundant daytime heating to continue. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1204 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

AVIATION...
Abundant mid and high level cloud cover this morning has
suppressed cu development across much of the region with the
exception being the eastern half of La. Already starting to see
some shra development east of the SHV terminal and west of the MLU
terminal where this cu has been towering. For the 18z taf
package...have decided to prevail VCTS at both the ELD and MLU
terminals for the remainder of the afternoon through the evening
hours. Further west...uncertainty exists given the mid and high
level cloud cover but there is a remnant MCV somewhere underneath
this cloud cover north of the I-20 corridor in NE TX which could
provide the lift necessary for at least widely scattered tsra
later today/this evening. Will have to handle this with an AMD if
necessary.

Winds will be light and variable except where shra/tsra develops.
Made mention of some vsby restrictions towards the predawn hours
on Tue assuming that we lose the mid and high cloud cover which
the newest progs suggest will happen. Otherwise...expect a growing
cu field across the region through the mid and late morning hours
on Tue.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  88  70  86 /  20  20  30  40
MLU  69  89  69  87 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  66  84  67  82 /  30  30  50  70
TXK  67  87  68  82 /  30  30  40  60
ELD  67  89  66  84 /  20  30  30  40
TYR  69  86  69  83 /  20  20  40  70
GGG  67  87  68  84 /  20  20  40  60
LFK  67  87  68  85 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/24/13



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