Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 311615
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1115 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WARMING WELL UNDERWAY WITH CLEAR SKIES BUT SOME COLD AIR STRATOCU
IS BEGINNING TO WORK INTO SE OK AND OUR ADJACENT SW AR COUNTIES SO
HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. GUSTY N/NW WINDS ARE ALREADY MEETING OR EXCEEDING CRITERIA
FOR LAKE WIND ADVISORY WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
ATTM AND NEW PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT OUT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0813 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 31/12Z TAF PD.
HOWEVER...LOW TO MID-LEVEL CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD/TXK
TERMINAL SITES BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY. SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR BY 01/00Z. WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND
INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY ON FRIDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WE ARE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
COLUMN. /24/

DISCUSSION...
FAIR AND SEASONAL FALL WEATHER FOR NOW...BUT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
AND 48 HOURS OF WINTER ARE ON THE WAY AND WITH A NORTHERLY PROFILE
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...THIS NEXT FRONT WILL SOON BE FELT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE AREA IN SHORT ORDER DURING TODAY. WE
HAVE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OUT FOR ALL OF THE AREA FROM LATE
MORNING TO JUST PAST SUNSET. TECHNICALLY 2 HOURS OR MORE OF GUSTS
TO 25 MPH WILL VERIFY THE ADVISORY AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 COULD
HAVE HAD A LATER START TIME...BUT OUR 88D VAD ALREADY HAS 30KTS AT
1KFT...SO WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS EVEN BEFORE LATE MORNING WITH GOOD
MIXING AND SUNNY SKIES IN NORTHERN AREAS AND AREA WIDE BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

AT ANY RATE...THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP UP FOR THIS
EVENING...SO JACKETS ARE GOOD TAKE ALONG FOR THOSE VENTURING OUT
ON THIS ALL SAINT/S EVE WITH FIFTIES QUICKLY DROPPING INTO 40S
DURING THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE WIND CHILL WILL MAKE FOR AN
ISSUE AS WELL. AIR IN THE 30S WILL FILTER IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
FREEZING TEMPS CROPPING UP BY THREE AM NORTH OF I-30 UNTIL WELL
AFTER SUNUP. WE WILL SEE MID TO UPPER 20S THERE WITH NUMBERS DOWN
TO AROUND 30 OR 31 FOR THE WARNING AREA...LIKEWISE AT LEAST TWO
HOURS TO BE SIGNIFICANT FOR PIPES...PETS AND PLANTS. SEVERAL RURAL
AREAS WILL GET DOWN TO 32 FOR A BRIEF TIME RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
WHEN THE WINDS WILL SLACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH AND THAT COULD FREEZE
LEAVES ON TENDER TROPICAL PLANTS. IT WILL BE BETTER SAFE THAN
SORRY EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING AREA IT IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL.
THE FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS HOUR AT JUST INTO NE KN AND IA. THE
WINDS WILL BE OUR ALLY AND KEEP FROST FROM BEING MUCH OF AN ISSUE
EXCEPT WHERE 20S OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS ONLY AS THE FRESH ARCTIC
AIR WILL BE TOO DRY. HOWEVER...AFTER A 15 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW
AVERAGE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...THE SECOND NIGHT LOWS WILL BE
FROSTY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES WITH STILL
GREEN PLANTS AND MOIST SOIL IN SHADED AREAS. IF YOU CAN ESCAPE THE
PLANT LOSS ON THE FIRST DAY...THE SECOND ATTEMPT MAY NOT BE
ADVISED TO CHANCE. THE AIR MASS MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE DURING
SUNDAY AS WE RESUME WITH MORE NORMAL FALL CONDITIONS.

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK IS SIMILAR WITH ONLY A FEW
TWEAKS. THE MODELS STILL LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EDGE INTO THE AREA DURING ELECTION DAY FOR THE MOST PART...SLOW
AND STEADY TO COMPLETE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS DIVERGE FROM
THERE AND STILL SOME QUESTIONS NOW FOR HOW IT ALL ENDS OVER OUR
CWA. MAV/MEX NUMBERS HAVE BEEN BLENDED THROUGHOUT THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  34  59  34  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  71  33  55  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  65  26  56  29  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  67  31  56  33  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  32  56  30  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  68  34  58  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  70  33  57  33  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  75  38  62  33  68 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&

$$

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