Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 292223
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
523 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC AR AND NE LA SHOULD
CONTINUE DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT THE SAME
FOR THE REMAINING CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS WELL.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THERE
ARE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHEAST. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH
THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING ON THURSDAY. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION
OF TSTMS WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE AS THE CHANCES JUST DO NOT WARRANT
A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. DEW POINT VALUES HAVE MIXED OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS TO KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES. HOWEVER...MONROE HAS TOUCHED A 110
DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS SHOWING UP AS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU FIELD. MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER TO UPGRADE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA FOR THURSDAY. SITUATION
LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR AS TODAY FOR THURSDAY ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
BEING THAT TODAYS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE STILL ON THE UPPER END OF
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ARE AFFECTING SUCH A SMALL AREA...WILL
HOLD WITH THE IDEA THAT THIS IS A MARGINAL SITUATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AGAIN TOMORROW. LATER SHIFTS
CAN RE-EVALUATE TO DETERMINE IF AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS
NECESSARY.

UPPER-RIDGE TO SHIFT WEST ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION
TO DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES TO RETURN DURING
THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76 102  76  98 /  20  20  20  10
MLU  77 101  75  96 /  20  30  10  10
DEQ  73  98  74  95 /  10  30  20  10
TXK  76 100  75  96 /  20  30  10  10
ELD  75  98  72  94 /  20  30  10  10
TYR  76 102  76  99 /  10  20  20  20
GGG  76 101  76  99 /  10  20  20  10
LFK  74 100  77  99 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ072-073.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070-071.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

05/13



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