Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 190254

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
954 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

To add cirrus clouds and tweak a few lows for the overnight.


Cirrus is on the increase and while that may not seem like much,
it will affect lows and possibly fog formation. That second chilly
night worked out better than expected last night with air falling
through the dew points. A southeast wind and 50 dew point at this
time will keep us much closer to average tonight. We have left
fog in weather and added clouds across the day as cirrus thickens
a bit. The fog and some low clouds will occur closer to daybreak
from 10-13Z and linger for a short time. Looking ahead at the
weekend, the water vapor shows the set up of two jet streams that
will finally work together to crack our drought of late.
Hopefully, more to come on a soon with an increased rate of
frequency than a whole week in between events. /24/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 837 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

For the 19/00Z terminal forecast will prevail VFR with mainly
high clouds spreading over the Four State Region from West to East
overnight. During the late night hours likely to have patchy
mist/br developing similar to last night for Northeast Texas and
North Central Louisiana and South Central Arkansas with visibility
restrictions of 3-5 statute miles and will tempo in group of lower
visibilities from 3/4 mile in KELD and 1-2 miles in KLFK. Will
also see MVFR ceilings around 15-25 hnd feet between 19/10-19/16Z
for North Louisiana and East and Northeast Texas. Flight conditions
improving between 19/14Z-19/17Z. Surface winds will be light and
variable to light Southeast less than 7 knots overnight and
East to Southeast 5-10 knots Thursday. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

High pressure has moved well east of the area, yet cloud free
skies still prevail for now. Dewpoints have risen slightly to the
upper 40s and lower 50s. Overnight lows may be slightly tricky as
pressure gradient to the west could suppress very lgt se winds
over ne TX, in combination with upper lvl clouds west of I-35
working their way towards the area. Also, an easterly wave over
the northern Gulf may bring low clouds into southern portions of
area, according to nam guidance, but not so much with gfs. Have
hedged btwn the models regarding cloud cover durg morning hours,
which could affect patchy fog development as sfc based inversion
may develop as was the case in rad cooling last night. Temps back
into mainly the lower 80s can be expected Thu and Fri with
increased upper moisture and se winds picking up close to 10 mph
durg the day. Deep upper trough approaching this wknd with first
good chance of rain in a long time and this system shaping up to
be more of a two round warm front followed by cold front scenario.
Unstable airmass Fri night and Sat with a veering wind profile
along with a unseasonally LI values around -5 suggest potential
for stg storms. However, forcing and moisture resulting in low
chance coverage for development. With main trough movg into Red
River Valley late Saturday night and movg across the area Sunday,
precip will be more widespread with one to two inches of rainfall
possible across the area. As upper trough beginning to close off
durg passage, eastern portions of area could possibly receive even
more rainfall depending on how evolution of upper trough.

Next week looking to be very dry and cloud free thru beyond end of
extended period as deep northerly flow develops on lee side of
closing off upper low. /07/


SHV  54  82  58  83 /   0   0   0  20
MLU  52  80  55  84 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  48  81  53  79 /   0   0   0  20
TXK  54  80  56  80 /   0   0   0  20
ELD  50  79  53  82 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  56  82  61  81 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  55  82  59  82 /   0   0   0  20
LFK  57  83  61  82 /   0   0   0  30




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