Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 011714
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS AREA HAVE GRADUALLY LIFTED TO MOSTLY HIGH MVFR
CAT..AND WILL LIKELY BECOME LOW VFR CIGS AND OCNL SCT DECKS THIS
AFTN. NUMEROUS WEAK AND SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS INCREASING
ACROSS NE TX AND NW LA...NO THUNDER AS OF YET...AS LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES STEEP...YET MID LVL CAPPING IN PLACE. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KTS BY AROUND 02/15Z. MVFR AND POSSIBLE
IFR CIGS ADVANCE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 02/06Z...WITH LIMITED PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT./VII/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROF AS EVIDENCED BY THIS MORNING`S FOG AND
STRATUS AND THE DEW POINTS...WHICH HAVE SOARED BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S AREAWIDE. EXPECTING A GOOD WARM UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...WITH SOME SEA BREEZE-
ENHANCED SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING. HAVE MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO COVER CURRENT CONDITIONS...BUT
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ATTM. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUED TO INCREASE GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR STATE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL PROVIDE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND SURFACE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LIFTING DURING THE DAY
RETURNING TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
COMBINE WITH THE MOISTURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE EVENING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND AGAIN ON THURSDAY INCREASING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN A WIDE BAND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
7-12 KNOTS TODAY...LOWERING TO 4-8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING
AGAIN AROUND MID MORNING THURSDAY TO 10-15 KNOTS. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS VERY TELLING THIS MORNING AS MAJOR CHANGES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ARE ONGOING WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
NOW EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROF DIGGING
INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE ERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES. MAJOR WEATHER
CHANGES FOR US ARE STILL ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS AWAY WITH A FEW MORE
DAYS OF SUMMER LIKE HEAT TO BEGIN OCTOBER. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO BE OUR FIRST OF THE
FALL SEASON TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT FROM RUN
TO RUN WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH JUST SOME SUBTLE
INCREASES IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
MORE RAPIDLY AS IT SHIFTS INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FURTHER
ENHANCED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A MAJOR SHORT WAVE IN CONCERT WITH THE
FRONT AS IT ENTERS OUR REGION MID TO LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO INCREASE LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH THE RAPID ACCELERATION OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT SE FROM
THE I-30 CORRIDOR LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS SCENARIO IS DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD FLOODING
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. TORNADO
THREAT LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME AS THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT QUICKLY E WITH THE ADVANCING SHORT WAVE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF NICELY
FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO EARLIER
IN THE WEEK. LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST WE
HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL SEASON WITH LOW TO MID 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SE OK AND MUCH OF SW AR WHILE READINGS FARTHER SOUTH WILL
RUN CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES IN E TX AND N LA. GRADUAL MODERATION TO
OCCUR BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR CLIMO FOR EARLY FALL.
/19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  92  66  81 /  30  10  30  70  10
MLU  89  71  91  70  82 /  30  20  30  60  20
DEQ  88  71  88  58  78 /  20  10  60  70  10
TXK  90  71  90  63  78 /  20  10  40  70  10
ELD  89  70  90  65  79 /  30  10  30  70  10
TYR  91  74  91  62  81 /  20  10  40  60  10
GGG  91  72  92  63  81 /  20  10  30  70  10
LFK  91  74  93  67  83 /  30  20  30  60  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






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