Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
FXUS64 KSHV 041809
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1209 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016
For the 04/18z TAFs, IFR and patchy LIFR conditions persist across
the area along with patchy drizzle between Interstates 20 and 30.
The next major round of rainfall is moving northeast into the area
from the Interstate 10 corridor. The rain will likely increase in
coverage and intensity, but most of the precip should be south of
Interstate 20. Precip will likely diminish tonight, but yet
another round of rain will move into the area before sunrise as a
surface low lifts northeast across Texas and into Arkansas. This
final round of precip should affect all TAF sites and will persist
through the end of the period. Flight conditions will continue to
fluctuate and vary between MVFR and IFR, with isolated instances
of LIFR. Wind speeds will generally remain around 10 kts or less.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1112 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/
Areas of -RA continue to shift ENE across the Sam Rayburn Country of
Deep E TX as well as the Srn sections of Ncntrl LA late this
morning...along an areas of theta-e advection at H850 beneath the
dirty SW flow aloft. Also seeing sct areas of -RA developing recently
across Ern Marion/Srn Miller/Lafayette/Nevada Counties...which appears
to be where the H850 trough is located per the 12z progs. This bndry
should continue to push S to near/just N of the I-20 corridor of E
TX/N LA this afternoon before becoming stationary...with drier air
entraining ESE behind it thus negating the potential for rain
development. The latest run of the HRRR has initialized well on the
current RA development across the Srn zones...which maintains these
areas of -RA over these areas before possibly tapering to some degree
late in the afternoon.
Have updated the zones to drop pops across much of extreme NE TX/SW
AR/SE OK...but maintained chance/likely pops S of I-20 ahead of the
H850 trough. Also lowered max temps 1-2 degrees areawide as the low
status will linger especially over lower E TX/N LA.
Still looking for areas of -SHRA to redevelop/spread NNE across the
region late tonight...as the closed low over Wrn MX begins to traverse
E towards the Big Bend region. Will address the additional QPF amounts
expected Monday in the afternoon discussion.
Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 52 46 51 45 / 30 70 90 50
MLU 52 47 55 49 / 30 70 90 60
DEQ 53 42 49 43 / 20 20 80 80
TXK 53 44 49 44 / 20 30 90 60
ELD 52 45 51 46 / 20 30 90 70
TYR 53 47 51 43 / 20 70 90 40
GGG 53 47 51 44 / 20 70 90 40
LFK 53 50 55 45 / 80 90 90 20