Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 210844
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
344 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH...CURRENTLY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WEST TEXAS...
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION EAST TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE TROUGH WILL
TAKE ON A MORE POSITIVE TILT TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST...REACHING
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT WITH THE TRAILING END OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED LIFT AND MOISTURE
IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES TODAY WHICH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT. HIGHEST QFP WILL BE THIS
EVENING...CONCENTRATED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST TEXAS WHERE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
IS POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON
AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS DURING MAX
HEATING AND BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER 00Z. A COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE FOUR STATE REGION. HOWEVER...ONLY A
MINOR AND SHORT LIVED TEMPERATURE DROP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE WIND WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH MOVES
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE RATHER LACKING AND MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST.
THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY...
A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAYS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW PREDOMINATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  62  80  59  83 /  30  80  10   0   0
MLU  82  60  80  57  82 /  20  70  20   0   0
DEQ  77  57  80  51  80 /  60  60  10   0   0
TXK  78  60  79  55  81 /  50  70  10   0   0
ELD  81  60  79  53  80 /  40  70  10   0   0
TYR  78  61  81  59  82 /  30  60  10   0   0
GGG  80  61  81  59  83 /  30  70  10   0   0
LFK  83  62  82  61  83 /  20  30  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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