Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 021949
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
249 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/18Z TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECTING MOSTLY MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING OF
THE CLOUD BASES AND CEILINGS FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER AFTER A POSSIBLE BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR...THINKING THAT THE CLOUDS/CEILINGS WILL LOWER BACK
TO MVFR AT MOST SITES WITH IFR AT KELD AND KMLU BETWEEN 03/09Z TO
03/13Z. EXPECTING VFR TO RETURN BY LATE MORNING TO MID DAY WHICH
WILL CARRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY TUESDAY AFTER END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT 03/18Z. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND LOWER NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA NEAR AND IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. STILL
EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY CROSS PARTS OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST TO NORTH 6-11 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO STREAM ACROSS
AREA WITH A FEW STORMS JUST BELOW SVR LIMITS. MOST OF THE TSTMS
HAVE NOW SHIFTED SOUTH OF I-20...WITH RAIN BECOMING LIGHT NORTH OF
I-30. ADJUSTED POPS TO SLGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FAR NORTH...AND
REDUCED TO HIGH END CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. KICKER SHORTWAVE
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SO EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO END AROUND MID AFTN.
ALSO LOWERED AFTN TEMPS TO JUST A FEW DEGREES MORE THAN CURRENT
TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND NORTH WINDS NEAR 10
MPH./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE BEEN DOWN
FOR THE MOST PART...SIGNALING THE LIKELY END FOR OUR OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLD STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL NO LONGER WARRANT THE NEED FOR A
CONVECTIVE WATCH. HAVE COORDINATED WITH SPC AND OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES...AND WE HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND CANCEL SVR WATCH
137. HAVE UPDATED THE WEATHER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY...BUT NO OTHER
CHANGES WILL BE MADE ATTM. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF PIVOTS EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WORKING TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING CONVECTION...AND A FEW STORMS HAVE
BECOME SEVERE. SPC HAS UPGRADED THE RISK AREA INTO THE MARGINAL
CATEGORY...AND SVR WATCH 137 IS NOW OUT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AS THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EWD. OUR
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO THE
DECREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT...COOLING OUR TEMPS DOWN TO
BELOW NORMAL AND FINALLY BRINGING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO AN END.

LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY SHIFT EWD BY MIDWEEK...AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION AS IT
BECOMES SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND ANOTHER MOVING ONTO
THE CA COAST. THIS WILL SPELL AN EXTENDED PD OF DRY WEATHER...AND
TEMPS WILL SNAP BACK UP TO NEAR AND EVEN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DRY AIR
IN PLACE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE...AND SUNSHINE
PLENTY.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FCST BY THE END OF THE PD
AND BEYOND...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  55  72  54 /  30  20  10   0
MLU  71  59  73  53 /  40  20  10   0
DEQ  62  50  71  49 /  20  10  10   0
TXK  65  53  71  52 /  20  10  10   0
ELD  66  55  72  52 /  30  20  10   0
TYR  65  52  71  54 /  30  20  10   0
GGG  66  53  71  52 /  30  20  10   0
LFK  69  56  74  53 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/07


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