Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 212108
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
308 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL THINGS TO LOOK AT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BOUNDARY
LAYER SATURATION TO AROUND 850 MB...WILL KEEP IN LOW CLOUDS AND
A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK/SW AR
WHERE MOISTURE A LITTLE DEEPER...ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS DENSE AS THIS
MORNING. WINDS MAY REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN CWA ALLOWING FOG TO
BECOME DENSE AT TIMES...WHILE FURTHER WEST...GRADIENT SOUTH WINDS
MAY KEEP MOISTURE ELEVATED WITH MOSTLY JUST LOW CLOUDS. AS UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST DEEPENS...WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS FOR MONDAY
AFTN...WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY BUT MARGINAL MID LVL MOISTURE.
DEPENDING ON THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS WITH NEXT COLD FRONT...OR
SLOWER NAM...WHETHER SIGNIFICANT PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BUT EITHER WAY...FAVORABLE
LOW LVL SHEAR NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY YIELD A FEW STG TSTMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH LA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...ALONG WITH
LIKELY POPS. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE JUST BEHIND FRONT...IN
ADDITION TO WRAPAROUND PRECIP POSSIBLY CATCHING AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF I-30. SHOULD THIS LOW LVL MOISTURE BE SUFFICIENT FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP...
A RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH OF LITTLE
SIGNIFICANCE OR IMPACT. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT...HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY...WITH LITTLE IF ANY TEMP
RISE FOLLOWING FROPA.

GOOD RADIATION COOLING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
RANGING MAINLY BTWN 30 AND THE MID 30S. DEEP COLD AIRMASS TO ENTER
REGION NEXT WEEKEND BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE FOLLOWING THIS FROPA...NOT
CONCERNED ABOUT WINTER WX WITH FRONT ATTM./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 22/18Z...OTHER THAN SOME MVFR
CIGS ACROSS EAST TX FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MOSTLY
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER THROUGH MID EVENING. AFTER 04Z...IFR CIGS WITH
AREAS OF IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG AND DRZL WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
TOLEDO BEND AREA OF EAST TEXAS...EXPANDING OVERNIGHT. MOST TERMINALS
WILL BECOME IFR BY 12Z...WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 22/18Z. MVFR TO
VFR FLIGHT SHOULD RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WIND 5 TO 10 KTS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 8 AND 14 KTS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. /14/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  66  52  54  36 /  10  20  30  50  30
MLU  44  64  55  61  37 /  10  30  40  60  40
DEQ  42  60  44  49  31 /  10  20  20  40  20
TXK  44  62  48  51  34 /  10  20  20  40  30
ELD  43  62  48  56  34 /  10  20  30  60  40
TYR  46  65  45  51  36 /  10  10  20  40  10
GGG  45  66  49  52  35 /  10  10  20  40  20
LFK  46  69  54  56  36 /  10  10  20  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






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