Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 172025
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
225 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Surface low centered over central KS this Friday afternoon with
ongoing moderate southerly winds in the warm sector across OK, E TX,
AR, and LA. Expect the trailing cold front with this low to sweep
from NW to SE across the ArkLaTex and SE OK after sunrise throughout
Saturday.

Moderate warm air advection has developed in the warm sector today,
and consquently have issued a Lake Wind Advisory in effect through
sunset of Saturday evening for much of E TX, SE OK, SW AR, and N LA.
Expect wind advisory criteria to continue behind the cold front
during Saturday through sunset with the end of daytime heating.

A cool and dry airmass behind Saturday`s frontal passage results in
dry weather for Sunday and the first half of Thanksgiving week.
Another frontal passage with light rain is scheduled during the
middle portion of next week. Expect dry weather for the holiday and
Black Friday with the passage of another continental polar airmass.
/VIII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1209 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/

AVIATION...
MVFR cigs will persist through mid to late afternoon across NE
TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA, before diurnal heating/warm advection and
mixing is able to lift cigs back to low VFR. However, MVFR cigs
are expected to redevelop/advect NNE by mid to late evening over
portions of E TX/Ncntrl LA, and eventually SW AR overnight. The
pressure gradient should begin to tighten further later this
evening over the Srn Plains ahead of a strong cold front that will
begin dropping SE into Nrn OK after 06Z Saturday, and thus
inhibit cigs from becoming IFR overnight through Saturday morning.
The front will enter the region after 15Z, with the MVFR cigs
expected to quickly lift/becoming VFR as winds quickly veer NW
with the fropa over much of NE TX/SW AR by the end of the TAF
period. The remaining terminals across Deep E TX/N LA will see a
return to VFR conditions Saturday afternoon. SSW winds 10-15kts
with gusts to 25kts this afternoon, mainly over E TX/SE
OK/adjacent SW AR/extreme NW LA, will persist tonight with
stronger gusts possible over much of the region. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1000 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Surface low centered across NE KS this Friday morning with associated
warm sector across the central plains and N TX. Warm air advection to
continue through tonight across ArkLaTex region and SE OK with well
above normal temperatures to reaching 80 degrees in a few locations
during this afternoon.

Current Lake Wind Advisory looks on track for E TX and SE OK as
surface winds increase in the warm air advection zone.

Will update the text zone forecasts to remove morning showers as a
capping inversion will prevent shower development through tonight as
evidenced on the 12Z KSHV RAOB at 9K feet. /VIII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  77  42  62 /  10  20   0   0
MLU  66  77  42  60 /  10  30   0   0
DEQ  65  69  35  60 /  10  20   0   0
TXK  66  71  38  60 /  10  20   0   0
ELD  65  74  38  60 /  10  30   0   0
TYR  67  72  40  61 /  10  20   0   0
GGG  67  74  40  61 /  10  20   0   0
LFK  67  80  42  62 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for LAZ001>006-
     010>013.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153.

&&

$$

08


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