Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 011800 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15



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