Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 170416
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1016 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Shwrs/isold tstms continue along a narrow band from near Tyler to
Texarkana, and have not made as much ewd progress this evening as
previously thought. The 00Z NAM has seemed to have the best handle
on QPF tonight with regard to the placement. Have made some
adjustments to overnight PoPs based upon current radar trends and
roughly based upon NAM PoPs, which has resulted in lower PoPs over
our extreme sern areas. The remainder of the adjustments were less
drastic and will likely be difficult to notice in the text
products. Otherwise, fcst seems to be reasonably on track, so will
not be making any other changes attm.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 827 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 17/00Z terminal forecast most sites will be affected by a
cold front moving across SW AR, NW LA, and E and NE TX resulting
in a wide band of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Out ahead of
the boundary a moisture laden atmosphere will be producing
VFR/MVFR flight categories and South to Southeast winds of 5-10
knots. Through the night the conditions will deteriorate to
prevailing MVFR/IFR. In and near the boundary MVFR/IFR flight
categories will become IFR with winds shifting from Southwest to
West 5-10 knots, followed by a move to more Northwest winds in
wake of the cold front. In showers the visibilities will lower to
3-5 statute miles and possibly lower in the heavier rainfall.
Since the cold front will be slow to move across the remaining
parts of North Louisiana and East and Deep East Texas, expecting
MVFR flight categories to prevail to the Southeast of an KELD,
KSHV, and KJSO line Tuesday. By the end of the forecast period
flight categories may trend down as the boundary becomes nearly
stationary and possibly drift back to the Northwest. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Pacific cool front making very slow progress across portions of ne
TX north of I-20, into extreme sw AR. Although a line of
convection has developed along front, and scattered convection in
portions of warm sector, any thunder has been very isold.
Therefore have downplayed tstms for next couple of days, as
overall instability will change little near this frontal zone.
Reducing pops from nw this eve into Tuesday, with front returning
just slightly nwd on Wed as upper low approaches. This low will
reach the OK/KS area by early Thur, with tight gradient suggesting
stg mid/upper lvl flow around base of low. However, lack of sfc
features suggest sfc winds to remain fairly weak, and overall
weakening as pressure gradients begin to relax with current quasi
stnry front. Overall rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are
possible thru Thursday aftn with steady onslaught of near
saturated atmosphere near this boundary as well, accompanied by
deep sw flow to continue. Finally a dry day on Friday, with a
faster movg system Sat and Sat night providing another brief shot
of rain. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  62  53  62 /  60  70  60  60
MLU  64  69  56  66 /  50  70  60  60
DEQ  44  59  44  56 /  10  20  40  50
TXK  49  61  48  57 /  50  30  60  60
ELD  55  62  50  60 /  60  70  60  60
TYR  50  61  50  60 /  40  30  60  60
GGG  52  62  51  61 /  60  40  60  60
LFK  59  63  56  67 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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