Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 271127
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
627 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN DURING THIS 12Z TAF PD. ISOLD
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENING...MAINLY S OF I-2O
OVER E TX. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION THROUGH VCTS...BUT ISOLD
NATURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY TEMPO/FM GROUPS FOR CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS OUT OF THE S AT 5-10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE
PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS
AND INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...DRIVING THE INTENSE HEAT
THAT HAS GRIPPED OUR REGION FOR THE BETTER PART OF THIS MONTH. NO
IMMEDIATE CHANGES IN THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW
MORE DAYS OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION...WHERE A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL
BUT OUR EXTREME WRN COUNTIES IN NE TX. IF WE SEE ANY ISOLD SHWRS
AND TSTMS LATER TODAY...MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE OVER OUR SRN
ZONES IN E TX AND WRN LA SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WITH THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY DUE TO SOME DRIER
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WORKING EWD LATER THIS WEEK. NONETHELESS...
NO BREAK IN THE HEAT WILL COME UNTIL POSSIBLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS A FRONTAL BNDRY SLIPS SWD BEHIND THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER
RIDGE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON BOTH RAIN CHANCES AND DROP
IN TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONT BUT STILL MAINTAINING LOW CHANCE
POPS AREA WIDE FOR NOW AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES.

UNFORTUNATELY...ANY BREAK WE DO SEE WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO EXPAND BACK ACROSS THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR ANOTHER STREAK OF UPPER 90S AND
TRIPLE DIGITS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  75  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  99  73  98  73 /  10  10  10   0
TXK 101  76 100  75 /  10  10  10   0
ELD 100  74  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  99  78  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  75  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-
     126-137-138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12


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