Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 041756
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1156 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
TWEAKS TO HIGHS TODAY AND ONLY SOME OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. MORE
TO COME FOR THE SHORT TERM OVERNIGHT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT 4PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
40S ARE SPREADING INTO OUR NW CORNER WHILE BALMY MID TO UPPER
ABOUND OVER DEEP EAST TEXAS...ALL OF LOUISIANA AND EVEN SOUTH
ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHARPLY FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT
TODAY. THE FREEZING LINE IS NEAR MCALESTER OK...TO
FAYETTEVILLE...TO NEAR MOUNTAIN HOME. THE COLD AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO FROM THE WEST AND FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

NEW MODEL DATA IS ACTUALLY COLDEST AFTER DAYBREAK JUST AS
PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS UPDATE HAS ONLY
ADDRESSED HIGHS TODAY AND SOME TWEAKS TO LOWS. MOST OF THE MODEL
DATA IS COLDEST BY 15Z OR 9AM CST. DAYBREAK READINGS WILL LIKELY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WETTER OR IN SOME CASES ICIER. THE FREEZING
LINE IS NEARLY UNPREDICTABLE AS DEW POINTS ARE WELL BELOW FREEZING.
SOME EVAPORATIONAL COOLING IS NOT WELL REPRESENTED BY THE FORECAST
LOWS...WHICH COULD END UP VARYING BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
REALITY AT ANY GIVEN TIME. AGAIN THIS IS NOT A NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE PATTERN WITH MOST OF OUR LOWS OCCURRING RIGHT AT
SUNRISE TO MAYBE 9 OR 10 AM CST. OUR GROUND TEMPERATURES ALONG
I-20 HAVE SOARED 10 DEGREES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS...BUT NOT SO
FARTHER NORHT ALONG I-30. MOST ROADS IN THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
FINE. THERE ARE SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES THAT COULD BE ICY AS
POCKETS OF SLEET MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD. THE CURRENT WARNING AREAS
MAY ONLY BE PROBLEMATIC IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT...WHICH MAY BE JUST
THE NORTHERN MOST PORTIONS OF COUNTIES AND PARISHES NORTH OF I-20.
ALONG I-30 IS WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF ICE...SLEET AND SNOW
WILL OCCUR.

JUST TO NOTE...FREEZING RAIN WILL ONLY OCCUR WHEN THE AIR
IS FREEZING...BUT SOME SLEET OR SNOW MAY OCCUR EVEN WHEN THE AIR
IS ABOVE FREEZING. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AIR TEMPERATURES IN
YOUR AREA AND OUR FORECAST LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL
CHANGES TO LOWS...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE DISTRICTS THROUGHOUT TODAY...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. EXPECT REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUET TO
VSBYS/CIGS...AS RAINFALL BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PD...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AT A FEW
SITES. OTHERWISE...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...SHIFTING OUR WINDS OUT OF THE N AT
12-18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT ALONG INTERSTATE 20 REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG NOTED NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...VISIBILITIES ARE MUCH HIGHER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. RAINFALL BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 20 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS
FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 9 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

ISENTROPIC FORCING ABOVE COLD AIRMASS TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. RAIN TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA DURING THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE BECOMING SLEET AND SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
OF FREEZING RAIN COULD BE UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE INCH. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THESE AREAS. ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN WITH A MIX OF SLEET DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BECAUSE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN THOSE AREAS IN THE
WINTER STORM WARNING...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
NO HIGHER THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

WINTER PRECIP TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN
BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BARELY BREAK ABOVE FREEZING ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED
TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  33  37  23  44 /  90  90  40  10  10
MLU  80  30  34  20  40 /  70  90  50  10  10
DEQ  54  29  39  19  45 / 100  90  10  10  10
TXK  56  30  36  20  40 / 100  90  20  10  10
ELD  69  29  34  18  39 / 100  90  40  10  10
TYR  62  30  37  23  45 / 100  90  20  10  10
GGG  71  32  38  23  44 / 100  90  30  10  10
LFK  78  36  41  26  50 /  70  90  40  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ010>013-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-138.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ136-137-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

24/05





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