Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 250301
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1001 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Skies have cleared this evening with temperatures falling off
nicely thus far with a few more degrees possibly left to fall. The
current forecast seems quite reasonable with projected overnight
lows and other parameters as well. Thus, no update is needed for
the remainder of tonight. Will send new zone package to drop late
afternoon wording. Otherwise, all other text products are in good
shape.

/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 542 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/

AVIATION...
Dealing with some isolated showers in the vicinity of the TXK/MLU
terminals attm but we should lose this activity over the next
couple hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail overnight
with the exception of some patchy fog developing at the terminals
a few hours before sunrise and an hour or two after sunrise Monday
morning.

Expect cu field to begin developing near 15z on Mon across our
terminal airspace with the possibility of isolated afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms once again.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Weak upper low/weakness over the central Gulf Coast has allowed
for isold convection this aftn across our ern half. Overall upper
flow pattern characterized by a trof over the wrn CONUS and
amplified upper ridge over the ern CONUS, with hurricane Maria
battling the ern periphery of the upper ridge.

Overall pattern to hold through midweek, as the ridge continues to
hold its ground against the erosion of the trof to our w. Models
continue to trend drier for the approaching cold front for our
area for mid to late week, no longer bringing anything better than
an isold chance for tstms for our extreme nwrn areas. The trof
will eventually force the ridge s and w late in the work week,
allowing a cooler airmass to filter into our region. However, we
will unfortunately be lacking the deep-layer moisture needed to
get some rain with the passage of the front. Some question as to
how this will affect the influence of the cooler airmass, so temps
in the extended may end up being too cool. For now, have stayed
close to blended guidance, which brings us temps down in the low
80s for Friday and Saturday.

/12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  91  70  92 /   0  20  10  10
MLU  70  90  68  92 /  10  20  10  10
DEQ  69  90  67  91 /   0  20  10  10
TXK  70  90  69  90 /   0  20  10  10
ELD  69  89  67  90 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  71  90  70  90 /   0  10  10  10
GGG  70  91  69  91 /   0  20  10  10
LFK  71  91  70  91 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/13/12


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