Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 011937
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS SE HALF OF
CWA...SPARING MUCH OF SW AR...SE OK...AND NE TX. ALSO...IT APPEARS THAT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVG SOUTH ACROSS AR HAS DIMINISHED WITH NO
LASTING EFFECTS INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH
DURG THE EARLY EVE. MORNING LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AS WEAK
BUT DEEP SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW TO CONTINUE. SEA BREEZE MAY ALSO
BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE. HOWEVER...BY WED MORNING... THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE CONFINED TO NE TX...AS SFC HIGH OVER LOWER MS VALLEY
SHUNTS MOISTURE WWD. MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND COOL
FRONT PUSHES INTO AREA BY AROUND SAT NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO WASH OUT AS IT STALLS. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS FAR OUT...NOT GOING HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT NEAR BOUNDARY.
ALSO...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE YUCATAN IS SHOWING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AND
INCLUDE A NWD MOVEMENT ACROSS GULF...COULD COME INTO PLAY FOR
WEEKEND FCST. HOWEVER...NOT FACTORED IN YET FOR WEEKEND FCST./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 01/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING LOWER
CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS AFTER 02/06Z...
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
DIMINISHING TO LESS 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  77  93  75  94  74 /  20  30  30  20  20
DEQ  74  94  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  75  94  74  94  74 /  10  20  20  10  10
ELD  75  94  74  94  73 /  20  20  20  10  10
TYR  75  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
GGG  76  95  74  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94  75 /  20  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







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