Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 182000
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
300 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure has moved well east of the area, yet cloud free
skies still prevail for now. Dewpoints have risen slightly to the
upper 40s and lower 50s. Overnight lows may be slightly tricky as
pressure gradient to the west could supper very lgt se winds over
ne TX, in combination with uper lvl clouds west of I-35 working
their way towards the area. Also, an easterly wave over northern
Gulf may bring low clouds into southern portions of area,
according to nam guidance, but not so much with gfs. Have hedged
btwn the models regarding cloud cover durg morning hours, which
could affect patchy fog development as sfc based inversion may
develop as was the case in rad cooling last night. Temps back
into mainly the lower 80s can be expected Thu and Fri with
increased upper moisture and se winds picking up close to 10 mph
durg the day. Deep upper trough approaching this wknd with first
good chance of rain in a long time and this system shaping up to
be more of a two round warm front followed by cold front scenario.
Unstable airmass Fri night and Sat with a veering wind profile
along with a unseasonally LI values around -5 suggest potential
for stg storms. However, forcing and moisture resulting in low
chance coverage for development. With main trough movg into Red
River Valley late Saturday night and movg across the area Sunday,
precip will be more widespread with one to two inches of rainfall
possible across the area. As upper trough beginning to close off
durg passage, eastern portions of area could possibly receive even
more rainfall depending on how evolution of upper trough.

Next week looking to be very dry and cloud free thru beyond end of
extended period as deep northerly flow develops on lee side of
closing off upper low./07/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1155 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

AVIATION...
Beautiful flying conditions across our entire airspace this
afternoon and these conditions are expected to continue into the
evening hours. Winds are mostly light southeast to south currently
with speeds less than 10kts. As we go into the late night hours,
we will likely see the possibility for some patchy dense fog
developing, especially across our NE TX terminals and cannot rule
out this possibility as far east as the ELD/MLU terminals as well.
Latest 12z NAM Cross Sectional output suggests that in addition
to the potential for some pre-sunrise vsby restrictions, we could
also be looking at IFR/LIFR ceilings across our NE TX terminal
locations. Therefore, have added this mention in the 18z TAF
package with the window of opportunity to see these conditions
beginning in the 19/10-14z timeframe with conditions likely not
improving until just beyond the 19/14z timeframe. Look for near
calm to light southeast winds overnight with ESE to SE winds less
than 10kts beyond sunrise Thu morning.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  82  58  83 /   0   0   0  20
MLU  51  80  55  84 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  49  81  53  79 /   0   0   0  20
TXK  53  80  56  80 /   0   0   0  20
ELD  49  79  53  82 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  56  82  61  81 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  55  82  59  82 /   0   0   0  20
LFK  57  83  61  82 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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