Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 010246
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
946 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE BECOME ISOLATED...BUT
CONTINUE TO POP UP HERE AND THERE...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE GOING.
NO UPDATE AT THIS TIME.  /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
FROM 01/10Z-01/14Z...IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE VCTS CONDITIONS
ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINAL SITES AFTER 01/18Z. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10
KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROF OVER THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS CLEARLY
NOTED IN THE WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN. UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ITS TREK EWD...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE INTO
THURSDAY. SW FLOW ALOFT ALREADY SETTING UP OVER OUR REGION...AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
EVEN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW/COLD FRONT
WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SHEAR/SFC FORCING FOR STRONG CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN ITSELF...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
OUR REGION DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR ANY
STRONG STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL.
GFS/EURO SOLUTIONS DO SHOW SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE OVERALL RESULT IS THE SAME. MOST AREAS SHOULD
RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP IT FROM BEING EXCESSIVE.

RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE FRONT SLING-
SHOTS EWD AND A 1025 SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THE
WEEKEND AFTER AN EXTENDED RUN OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS.

NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROF. IF THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHWRS...BUT TOO
UNCERTAIN TO MENTION POPS ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  89  73  89  66 /  20  20  10  30  70
MLU  70  89  71  88  68 /  20  30  20  30  50
DEQ  66  85  69  84  60 /  20  20  10  60  60
TXK  69  87  71  85  63 /  20  20  10  40  70
ELD  68  86  69  86  63 /  20  30  10  30  70
TYR  71  90  74  87  63 /  20  20  10  40  50
GGG  70  88  72  89  64 /  20  20  10  30  60
LFK  72  90  75  91  69 /  20  20  20  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







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