Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 191711
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1111 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
SFC RIDGE HAS EXITED OUR REGION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...AND
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
NEAR 25 KTS AT TIMES...MAINLY AT THE TXK/TYR/GGG TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS SE
TX ATTM AND THIS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD LATER TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AS
WELL. A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD.

HAVE CEILINGS COMING IN AROUND 3-4KFT INITIALLY WITH CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY 3-5SM VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL TOWARDS THE
PREDAWN HOURS. ANY MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB TO LOW VFR
CATEGORIES BEYOND 20/15Z.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
JUST A FEW LOW CLOUDS OVER NEAR ALEXANDRIA AT THIS TIME AND HAVE
ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS A BIT...BUT NO CHANGES TO WORDING ON OUR TEXT
PRODUCTS. THERE IS A LITTLE MOISTURE ON OUR SOUNDING AT 850MB AND
FWD IS A BIT DRIER SO WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR AS WE ARE W/SW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. WE HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AT
MANY SITES AND THINKING 61 FROM THE SOUNDING IS NOT ENOUGH FOR
KSHV...BUT OUR ZONE TEXT READS HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S FOR TODAY.

OUR WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER AT THIS HOUR AND HAVE LOADED IN NEW
NAM AND BUMPED UP A BIT. WE MAY BE NEAR LAKE WIND CRITERIA OF
15-25 MPH IN A SPOT OR TWO FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR...BUT WITH OUR
VAD SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST HOUR FROM 20KTS AT A
1KFT...TO AROUND 10-15KTS NOW AND AT 2KFT...WE ARE DOWN TO 25KTS
FROM 35KTS. MIXING WITH HEATING SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO
HOMOGENIZE THE LOW LEVELS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME...ALL
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH OUR HOME PAGE ON THE WAY.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  43  64  54  66 /   0  10  10  40  50
MLU  60  39  62  49  65 /   0  10  10  30  40
DEQ  57  31  55  44  58 /   0  10  10  40  50
TXK  58  39  58  47  61 /   0  10  10  40  60
ELD  59  36  58  47  61 /   0  10  10  40  60
TYR  60  44  64  55  66 /   0  10  20  40  50
GGG  63  43  65  54  66 /   0  10  20  40  50
LFK  63  47  65  57  69 /  10  10  20  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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