Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 121631
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1031 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.UPDATE...
A much slower warmup today compared to 24 hours ago and this is
due in part to cold air advection in place across the Four State
Region in the wake of a cold front which passed through the area
late last night. Strong post frontal pressure gradient in place
today which is resulting in northwest winds sustained near 10kts
with gusts upwards of 15 to 20kts in a few locations through mid
morning but that gradient should begin to relax slightly by this
aftn. Only adjustment to the grids was to slow the hourly warmup
in the diurnal curve but kept max temp grids untouched for the
remainder of the day. Also adjusted hourly dewpoint/RH grids to
better match the slower diurnal curve as well.

No other changes necessary attm...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 453 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front has just moved south of I-20, with nw winds gusting
near 20 kts in its wake. The timing of this front and resulting
isobars indicate that for all but southern portions of the area,
nw-n winds will be stronger in aftn than morning. As this pressure
gradient relaxes, winds will quickly decouple for most of the area
overnight, except where pressure gradients are noted to the west
with possibly a lgt southerly breeze over ne TX before daybreak.
No clouds expected with this very dry airmass and the same may be
the case with another weaker front pushing into the area Thursday.
Finally, the front on Saturday in his quick succession of
boundaries will see increased uppr lvl air with top down moisture
quickly deepening thru the mid lvls. Some thunder may be noted
with this rain although weak low lvl lapse rates may be the
limiting factor. Model runs seem to be pushing this possible rain
event until later into the wknd. Biggest concern is low humidities
and gusty winds associated with the frqt frontal passage with the
worsening ongoing drought.

/07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  33  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  59  32  60  39 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  55  29  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  56  32  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  57  30  61  38 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  59  35  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  59  33  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  63  33  62  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

07/13


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