Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 221916
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
216 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...An active weather pattern expected late this week and through
much of the Memorial Day Holiday weekend...

The forecast area remains under the influence of weak ridging
aloft between long wave troughs over both wrn and ern North America.
This ridging should only support widely sct shower tstm development
through Wednesday.

by Thursday...a seasonably strong negative tilt shortwave will eject
from sw to ne from nm with sct to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected through Friday morning. Accordingly expect some storms to
become severe although the storm threat details are too far in the
future to forecast at this time.

Active weather remains in the forecast for the Memorial Day holiday
weekend of May with severe weather and heavy rainfall quite possible.
These threats will be better defined later this final week of May.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 124 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

AVIATION...
For the 22/18Z TAFS...VFR conditions observed as cloud cover has
scoured over much of the area with just some spotty CU mainly in
east Texas and cirrus spilling over the ridge across the plains.
High pressure to the northeast will continue to vector winds from
the E/SE at most sites with occasional NE flow still occurring at
ELD/MLU closer to the sfc high center. Speeds will diminish to
very light/near calm overnight with a brief window of patchy fog
possible around daybreak Monday. Some stratus may also work into
our East Texas terminals, but any MVFR ceilings should be short-
lived as well with increased sfc heating/mixing by 23/15Z. Winds
will increase as well, becoming more SE in direction. Convection
is not expected to be organized until later on Monday so have not
included any mention of shwrs or tstms in this TAF package. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 935 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Diffluent flow aloft across E TX resulting in sct showers and tstms.
Current gridded and text forecasts on track for this afternoon with
mention of convection across E TX and NW LA near Toledo Bend.

No updates planned for this afternoon.  /VIII./

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  85  70  87 /  10  20  20  30
MLU  62  85  67  88 /  10  20  20  30
DEQ  62  82  67  83 /  20  30  20  30
TXK  63  83  68  85 /  10  20  20  30
ELD  60  84  66  86 /  10  20  20  30
TYR  68  85  71  85 /  20  30  20  30
GGG  67  84  69  86 /  10  30  20  30
LFK  68  85  70  86 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

&&

$$

08



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