Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 251532
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1032 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Shwrs/tstms have yet to materialize across our region this morning,
despite model output. However, given the weak upper flow, the
presence of an easterly wave across the nrn Gulf, and the weak
cold front across wrn AR/ern OK, still think our chances of seeing
some good coverage of storms today are good. Therefore, have left
POPs, and subsequently temps/sky grids, as is. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 652 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

AVIATION...
While brief MVFR cigs will be possible this morning mainly over E
TX/N LA...VFR conditions are expected through much of the 12Z TAF
period. Will continue to see elevated cigs between 7-15kft this
morning...mainly over E TX/Wrn LA near the apex of an inverted
trough aloft that will drift W across E TX later today. Can/t rule
out isolated -SHRA developing this morning over these areas...but
sct convection is expected to develop after 18Z over SW AR/E
TX/Wrn LA once daytime heating is able to increase instability.
Have continued mention of VCTS for the TXK/SHV/E TX
terminals...but believe convection will be more isolated farther E
closer to the ELD/MLU terminals such that confidence is too low to
include in the TAF/s attm. Additional amendments are likely to add
tempo thunder mention given the low confidence in timing farther
W where sct convection should develop. VFR cigs in a cu field is
also expected...but the convection should shift SW and diminish
late this afternoon/early evening...with elevated convective
debris lingering overnight especially over E TX. Patchy FG may
develop late in the period over areas that receive rainfall.
Lt/vrb winds this morning should become more erly 5-7kts this
afternoon before diminishing after 00z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 500 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Rather muggy start with a little fog East and calm or light SE
everywhere ranging in the low to mid 70s with 90plus percent on
the RH. We have and should keep a good amount of clouds early today
and our radar is quiet now with just a couple of showers in San
Augustine Co that are nearly stationary. The water vapor shows
the upper ridge over Texas and a nice pile of tropical 2plus inch
pwat overhead and extending off shore in the Gulf. An Easterly
wave is perhaps going to act as a back door front with surface
winds becoming E/NE later today. The mid level dry air over
MS/AL/GA will surge Westward and take a decent rain chance quickly
West this afternoon. The associated upper low is over the West
coast of FL and moving NW and will bring back in an inverted
trough keeping some decent pops going this week and mainly in the
afternoon heating.

Hopefully the numbers will work out today with Heat index
readings under advisory criteria. Many zone groupings have mention
of HX 101-104 or 102-105 range, some with lower 90s have no
mention at all. The Easterlies will hand around for a good while
this week and the higher than average chance for rain should keep
the high heat in check compared to lately anyway. And to note our
4 inch soil temperature reading at midnight is already back on
the fall with the penetrating rains. The storm total for the last
24 was quite impressive from Deep East TX and across much of
Louisiana. Hopefully we can green up a bit in the next week or
two and keep the triple digit heat at bay. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  76  94  75 /  60  20  30  20
MLU  93  75  94  76 /  60  30  30  20
DEQ  94  75  94  74 /  50  30  30  20
TXK  93  75  94  75 /  60  30  30  20
ELD  93  75  94  75 /  50  20  30  20
TYR  94  76  94  76 /  60  20  40  20
GGG  94  75  94  74 /  60  20  40  20
LFK  92  75  92  75 /  60  30  50  30

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12



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