Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 221834
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
134 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 22/18Z period, weakening Tropical Depression Cindy is
still on course to track through our region later this afternoon
and overnight with showers increasing in overall coverage and
intensity. The highest concentration of convection will mainly be
found near the center of circulation as it tracks from deep East
Texas across North Louisiana and eventually into South Arkansas.
This places the LFK/SHV/ELD terminals nearest to the path of the
storm track so expect these sites to see heavier bands of showers
through much of the period. MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will be common
throughout the period with even some isolated LIFR conditions at
times with the heavier rainfall. Winds will be varying throughout
the period due to the track of the remnant low pressure center so
prevailing wind direction will not come until late in the period
when S/SW winds are expected behind the departing T.D. Cindy and
ahead of an approaching cold front moving south toward the region.

/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1019 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Cindy has been downgraded to a tropical depression and continues
to weaken. Center of the low is now approaching the Toledo Bend
reservoir. Two greatest impacts for this forecast update is
flooding potential and winds. At this time, winds have remained
below 25 mph across the region. Current Lake Wind advisory has
been covering these winds fairly well. With regards to flooding,
flash flood guidance avenging around 3.5 inches per hour to 5.5
inches per 6 hours across the region. Up until now, rainfall
totals have been lackluster with highest amounts averaging around
three quarters of a inch since overnight. Main concern will be
training across north central Louisiana in association with a
northward moving rainband. Flash flood watch remains in effect and
the only adjustments, if needed will be to include additional portions
of southern Arkansas later today. Will continue to monitor trends
and make final decision with afternoon package. Otherwise,
forecast looks good. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  74  86  74 /  90  90  60  50
MLU  84  76  85  74 /  90  90  80  50
DEQ  84  73  88  71 /  70  50  50  50
TXK  83  74  86  72 /  90  90  60  50
ELD  84  74  84  72 /  90  90  80  50
TYR  84  75  90  74 /  90  40  30  50
GGG  83  75  88  74 /  90  70  50  50
LFK  82  76  89  75 / 100  80  40  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for ARZ071>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

     Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ126-138-
     151>153-165>167.

     Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ126-137-138-
     149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

19/05


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