Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
514 FXUS62 KTBW 131111 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 711 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 A region of high pressure continues to sit over the state of Florida with associated weak westerly or northwesterly flow throughout the day. Although this pattern is not typically linked with high rain chances, there is a sizable amount of atmospheric moisture currently present, leading to 60% to 70% chances for showers and thunderstorms across inland areas with values closer to 40% and 50% in coastal regions. With onshore flow for the state`s west coast, earlier activity during the morning or early afternoon is a possibility, specifically for the Nature Coast and our southwest counties. Looking ahead into early this week, an area of low pressure is expected to move across Florida into the northeastern Gulf, where it could potentially turn into a tropical system as it continues to move away to the west during midweek. According to the Weather Prediction Center, this system brings along a slight risk (at least 15%) of excessive rainfall to our region. In the case of excessive rainfall, localized flash flooding can occur, especially in urban, low lying and poor drainage areas. Elevated rainfall chances are expected throughout the entire week, and so high temperatures should be a bit subdued, with values expected to range from upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures should stay in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 710 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 VFR conditions currently across the terminals. Once again showers/storms will develop after 18z. For now, have left KTPA, KPIE, and KSRQ dry with the best chances for precipitation inland and across southwest Florida. Any shower/storm has the possibility of temporarily lowering flight conditions to MVFR/IFR. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast throughout the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 340 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 High pressure will hold over the waters through tonight. An area of low pressure may develop and move west across the waters Monday and Tuesday and then well west of the area by midweek. This will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm activity for much of the upcoming week. Winds and seas are expected to remain below cautionary levels at this time, but gusty winds and locally rough seas will occur in the vicinity of thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 340 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 No fire weather concerns are expected at this time. Moisture will increase with best chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 80 90 77 / 50 50 90 60 FMY 93 77 90 75 / 70 50 90 60 GIF 94 76 92 75 / 70 50 90 40 SRQ 91 78 90 74 / 40 30 80 70 BKV 92 74 92 72 / 60 50 90 50 SPG 90 79 88 76 / 40 40 80 70 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 8 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle