Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 290713
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
313 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017
.SHORT TERM (Today - Sunday)...
High pressure will continue to dominate the area this
weekend, with an omega ridge aloft holding in place over
Florida and the western Atlantic, and a surface ridge
centered off the Carolina coast drifting slightly north
through Sunday. Rain chances will be suppressed under the
effects of this ridging, despite the fact that southeasterly
low level flow will continually increase atmospheric
moisture and humidity. Otherwise, a fairly tight pressure
gradient along the southwestern edge of the surface ridge
will produce somewhat breezy winds across the area, which
will in turn limit the west coast sea breeze from making a
solid push inland.
Temperatures will continue to run well above normal, and
similar to Friday, a few new record high temperatures may
be set this afternoon. With increasing humidity and a few
more clouds on Sunday, temperatures will moderate by a
couple of degrees, but highs are still forecast to reach
into the upper 80s and low 90s.
MID TERM/LONG TERM (Sunday Night - Friday)...
An upper low over the central plains Sun night troughs down
to northeast mexico and has a surface reflection that
trails a cold front down the Mississippi valley to the Gulf
Through Tue - The upper low and it/s trough tracks
northeastward... dragging the front into northern FL. Upper
ridging builds north over the Gulf of Mexico with zonal flow
weakening the front and allowing surface high pressure in
the Atlantic to continue to ridge across FL.
On Wed - Zonal flow continues aloft the Gulf as a weak
short wave trough slides through. The weakened front lifts
north while the surface ridge reaches across the Gulf.
Thu-Fri - An upper level trough forms from the Mid-West to
west TX then moves east...from the Great Lakes to the
eastern Gulf of Mexico...with an associated cold front
reaching northern Fl and the east Gulf Fri.
The frontal system early in the week...the short wave trough
mid-week....and a second and somewhat more robust front at
the end of the week will keep skies partly cloudy and
support a slight chance to a chance of showers with a few
thunderstorms. Temperatures initially run above normal but
then decrease to around normal by Fri due to the clouds and
rainfall. Prevailing light southeast and south winds...with
afternoon sea breezes...continue until Fri when they become
westerly and increase some.
Generally VFR conditions are expected to hold through the
next 24 hours. Some isolated areas of MVFR ceilings have
so far stayed away from area TAF sites, but it is possible a
few more pockets will develop through sunrise. Otherwise,
breezy southeast winds will keep the sea breeze limited.
High pressure will continue to ridge from the Atlantic into
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico into Monday, with
southeast flow giving way near the coast each afternoon to
onshore flow with the sea breeze. Nocturnal surges will
bring the wind speeds up to around small craft exercise
caution levels. A cold front will creep into the waters late
Monday and wash out through the middle of the week, with a
few showers and storms possible, but winds are otherwise
expected to remain less than 15 knots.
Red flag conditions will be marginal this afternoon, with
breezy winds of around 15 MPH and relative humidity
dropping to around 35 percent. Although it is possible that
a few sites will see instantaneous Red Flag conditions,
confidence is not high enough to issue a Red Flag Warning at
this time. Humidity is forecast to gradually increase
Sunday and Monday.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 92 73 89 74 / 0 0 10 10
FMY 91 72 90 72 / 0 10 0 0
GIF 92 71 90 71 / 0 10 10 10
SRQ 87 72 85 72 / 0 0 10 0
BKV 94 69 89 69 / 0 10 10 10
SPG 91 74 89 75 / 10 0 10 10
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/Fleming
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/Rude