Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 211857
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
257 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Sunday)...
The Atlantic ridge will hold strong over the mid-atlantic states
through Sunday resulting in a generally nice albeit warm and humid
finish to the weekend.

A few showers may occur in Lee and Charlotte counties this evening,
but otherwise expect mainly dry conditions overnight. Can`t rule out
a few quick sprinkles in enhanced easterly flow over our far eastern
areas like Polk and Highlands counties.

Moisture will be on the increase on Sunday as a cold front moves
southeastward toward the western Gulf. Winds will gradually shift
from easterly to southeasterly through the day, and some upper-level
energy will be reaching mainly the Nature Coast toward evening. This
combined with a slight increase in low-level convergence should be
enough to generate some scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night-Saturday)...
The big story during the period will be the arrival of the first
real cool down across the region. However, before this happens deep
moisture will overspread the area Sunday night into Monday ahead of
a mid/upper level trough and associated cold front. Warm and muggy
conditions will continue during this time with abundant clouds and
numerous showers and thunderstorms developing during the day Monday,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours as daytime heating
combines with the deep moisture and the increasing synoptic lift
ahead of the trough. Monday night into Tuesday the cold front will
move slowly southeastward across the region waiting for the
secondary mid/upper level push. The boundary should reach the Nature
Coast late Monday night and exit the southern zones Tuesday evening.
More scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the
front during this time. Tuesday night into Thursday northerly flow
will usher in much cooler drier air as surface high pressure moves
across the gulf and southeast states. During Friday and Saturday the
high will shift east out into the Atlantic Ocean with a more
easterly flow setting up bringing moderating temperatures and
moisture leading to the chance of a few showers by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected next 24 hours. Winds will become more
southeasterly on Sunday, and there is some chance of MVFR ceilings
during the morning hours, but overall confidence too low to
introduce at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Most hi-res model guidance is showing a 6 to 10 hour period of 20
knot winds tonight over the waters between 20 and 60 NM offshore.
Will issue a short-duration small craft advisory for the offshore
waters which will start at 8 PM and continue through 5 AM Sunday.
As the Atlantic high finally starts to pull away later Sunday,
the pressure gradient will relax and winds will become much
lighter.

The first significant cold front of the year is forecast to move
into our waters Monday night and Tuesday. We will likely see
numerous showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front beginning in
our northern waters on Monday and continuing southeast through the
waters Monday night and early Tuesday. Winds will shift to the
northwest behind the front and may reach small craft advisory levels
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns through Monday. We could see some near-
critical humidities behind the cold front on Wednesday and Thursday
as much drier air moves in. It currently looks like winds will
remain below 15 mph during that time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  75  88  76  85 /   0  40  20  70
FMY  75  89  75  86 /  10  10  10  50
GIF  73  88  73  85 /  10  30  10  60
SRQ  74  89  75  85 /   0  20  20  60
BKV  70  89  73  85 /  10  50  20  70
SPG  76  87  75  85 /   0  30  20  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Sunday for Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL
     out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs
     to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Jillson
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...Close


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