Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 230752
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
252 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Early morning IR satellite and radar returns are showing a
band of clouds and showers associated with a mid level
trough and elongated surface low streaming off the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and into Florida. Through the rest of today
and tonight, this trough and surface low will continue to
shift east into the area, bringing widespread showers and a
few thunderstorms, as well as considerable cloudiness. While
it isn`t expected to rain all day in any one location, much
of the area is expected to see prolonged periods of rain
throughout the day. With the exception of a few of the
stronger storms, most of the rain will be light to moderate
in intensity, so extreme rain totals and flooding are not
expected. The rain and clouds will also keep temperatures in
check, with afternoon highs expected to run in the upper
60s and 70s across the area.

On Friday, the trough will continue to move east across the
area, with drier low level air filling in from north to
south. Scattered showers and a few storms will still be
possible, mainly during the morning hours, but by the
afternoon and evening, convection is expected to dissipating
and will shift south and east of the area.

.MID-LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Eastern North American longwave trough to rotate into the W
Atlantic this weekend as southern end trailing short wave
troughiness to remain over the region into early next week
as model solutions diverge at the end of the forecast
timeframe.

At the surface, weak high pressure builds into the region
that quickly gets reinforced by stronger cool/dry Canadian
airmass to end the weekend into Monday. High pressure moves
into the W Atlantic with conditions moderating Tues/Wed.
Continue to expect cool and pleasant fall conditions this
weekend into early next week for the area with temps about
3-5 degrees below climate averages, which should feel even
cooler compared to the above normal fall conditions we`ve
already observed.


&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers will continue to drift northeast through
the rest of the overnight period, with increasing chances
of MVFR ceilings and visibilities, or perhaps some
occasional IFR. After 12z, rain and thunderstorms chances
will increase through the rest of the day and into Thursday
night, with MVFR ceilings possible at just about any time.

&&

.MARINE...
An area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf will stretch
northeast through the Florida Peninsula today and tonight,
with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The
low will also cause winds to increase to cautionary levels
over the Gulf waters, mainly from around the Tampa Bay
north. Wind speeds will gradually subside through the day on
Friday, as high pressure builds in from the north and rain
chances clear out. High pressure will hold north of the area
through the weekend and into early next week, with winds
and seas expected to remain below headline criteria.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Humidity will remain well above critical threshold through
the weekend

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  74  64  72  61 /  80  60  40  10
FMY  78  67  77  63 /  60  50  40  10
GIF  75  64  73  58 /  70  50  50  10
SRQ  75  65  73  60 /  70  60  40  10
BKV  73  61  70  54 /  90  60  50  10
SPG  74  64  72  61 /  80  60  40  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/Fleming
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis



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