Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 011814
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
214 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016
.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Saturday)...
Showers and thunderstorms over the forecast area will gradually
wind down after sunset tonight with warm and muggy conditions
again expected overnight under partly cloudy skies. The persistent
onshore flow will again favor showers and storms developing along
the coast and over the Gulf waters late tonight through Saturday
morning and will depict low rain chances (pops in the 20 to 30
percent range) for these areas in the grids and zones.
On Saturday upper ridging over the Bahamas and offshore the
southeast Florida coast combined with a surface and mid level
trough over the southeastern states and the Florida Panhandle
will continue to maintain a deep layered south to southwest wind
flow over the forecast area.
Abundant moisture (PW`s in the 1.8 to 2+ inch range) combined with
daytime heating and the sea breeze circulations will continue to
support scattered to numerous showers and storms across the
forecast area with the onshore flow favoring early morning
convection along the coast shifting to inland locations during the
afternoon and early evening hours as the sea breeze boundary
Temperatures tonight will remain above normal due to the onshore
flow with lows in the mid 70s inland areas, and upper 70s to
around 80 along the coast. Daytime highs on Saturday will run
near normal with highs climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
.MID/LONG TERM (Saturday Night - Friday)...
The synoptic pattern of upper level ridging continues to dominate
through the forecast period with the low level subtropical ridge
axis extending down across the central Florida peninsula.
With PW values ranging from 1.80 to 2 inches...subsequent moisture
and daytime heating will allow for the development of sea breeze
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours each day.
Southwest flow continues to dominate throughout much of the work
week, which will allow for the scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms to push inland and toward the east coast. However
this pattern will change as a surface high pressure begins to
form in the eastern Gulf on Wednesday creating a new wind pattern.
Light east to southeast flow will develop off the coast early
Wednesday morning through the remaining forecast period. This
shift will allow the sea breeze to push afternoon showers and
thunderstorms westward toward the Bay Area and off the west coast.
At this time, no significant threat of severe weather (other than
the typical summertime storms) are expected through the end of
the forecast period.
As far as temperatures go, the forecast will feature warm/hot and
humid conditions throughout the forecast period. Temperatures will
be average to slightly above average due to the general ridging
Some brief MVFR conditions will be possible through 01Z tonight as
some shra/tsra affect the area and have handled with VCSH/VCTS
for now, otherwise mainly VFR is expected during the next 24
hours. West winds in the 7 to 10 knot range this afternoon will
become light south after 02Z, becoming southwest to west at 5 to 7
knots after 14Z on Saturday.
Surface high pressure will remain suppressed south across the
southern peninsula through the upcoming holiday weekend as a
surface and mid level trough persists across the southeastern
states and Florida Panhandle. The high will drift north to the
central peninsula early next week as the aforementioned trough
lifts out to northeast. Tranquil boating conditions will continue
through the period with a south to southwest wind flow around 10
knots expected tonight through Sunday, with the flow becoming
southwest to west at similar speeds early next week as the ridge
axis shifts northward. Wind and seas will be higher in the
vicinity of thunderstorms, otherwise no headlines are anticipated.
Abundant moisture along with daily rain chances will keep humidity
values well above critical levels through the holiday weekend
and into next week with no fire weather issues expected.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 79 90 79 91 / 10 30 20 40
FMY 77 92 77 92 / 10 40 20 60
GIF 74 92 76 94 / 30 50 30 60
SRQ 79 88 78 90 / 10 30 10 40
BKV 74 90 74 92 / 10 40 20 40
SPG 80 89 80 91 / 20 30 10 40
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/McMichael
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/Rude/Kryston