Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 290749
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
349 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016
.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...The upper ridge extending
northwest from Bermuda toward the mid Atlantic region continues to
hold over that region through Sunday then slowly weakens and moves
eastward. On the surface, a pair of high pressure centers remain
over the mid Atlantic region and over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Just to the south of the mid Atlantic ridge, Tropical Storm Bonnie
remains off the coast of South Carolina. This storm is expected to
slowly move northwest making landfall along the South Carolina
coastline by Sunday evening, then will weaken and move slowly to the
northeast along the coast. The high pressure center over the gulf
will keep any effects of this storm well to our northeast. This
surface high pressure will be the dominant weather factor over
Florida for the next couple of days with sea breeze boundaries being
the main weather producer. Sea breeze showers and storms can be
expected during the afternoon for the next couple of days with the
highest concentration being south of the I-4 corridor and over
inland counties. Temperatures will remain just around average with
daytime highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s.
.MID/LONG TERM (Monday night - Saturday)... Mid and upper
level troughing will linger over the southeastern U.S.
and Florida through much of the week before weak upper ridging
builds in over the area Friday into Saturday as a positive tilted
upper level trough and closed low develops and deepens over the
lower Mississippi valley and southeast Texas. At the surface the
remnants of Bonnie along the North Carolina coast at the start of
the period is forecast to drift ever so slowly north northeast along
a baroclinic zone along the Mid Atlantic coast through Thursday
before moving further to the northeast over the Atlantic south of
New England on Friday. For additional information on Bonnie see the
latest advisories being issued by the National Hurricane Center.
Closer to home a weak pressure pattern will continue as surface high
pressure persists from the Atlantic across the central Florida
peninsula through Friday.
Similar to yesterday sufficient low level moisture combined with
daytime heating should result in scattered diurnal sea breeze driven
showers and storms across the forecast area each day during the
period...mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours...with
highest rain chances focusing along and to the east of the I-75
corridor each afternoon as the sea breeze boundary moves inland.
On Saturday deeper moisture advecting into the region from the
western Caribbean on a deep layered southwest flow on the eastern
side of the upper level trough/closed low over the lower Mississippi
valley/southeast Texas will lead to numerous showers and scattered
storms across the region during the afternoon and evening hours.
Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above seasonal norms
with overnight lows in the lower 70s over inland areas and mid 70s
along the coast...with daytime highs in the upper 80s along the
coast and lower 90s inland.
.AVIATION...VFR conditions can be expected at all terminals through
the period. Will cover the possibility of thunderstorms moving
across the southern terminals with VCTS during the afternoon hours.
.MARINE...Winds will start out from the northeast, then as high
pressure moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico, winds will shift to
a predominately west through northwest winds over the coastal waters
through the middle of next week. An afternoon sea breeze can be
expected along the coastline each day. A chance of showers and
storms can be expected over the waters during the afternoon/evening
hours. So with the exception of gusty winds in the vicinity of
thunderstorms, no other hazards are expected through the period.
.FIRE WEATHER...Relative humidity values will remain above any
critical levels so no fire weather concerns are expected.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 90 74 90 75 / 30 10 30 10
FMY 91 72 91 73 / 30 30 40 20
GIF 92 72 93 72 / 40 30 40 20
SRQ 87 72 87 73 / 20 10 20 10
BKV 91 68 92 69 / 20 10 30 20
SPG 89 76 90 76 / 20 10 20 10
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/Wynn
MID/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/McMichael