Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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242
FXUS62 KTBW 061943
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
243 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Wednesday)...
An U/L disturbance currently over the Tennessee Valley and
southeast U.S. will move rapidly off the mid Atlantic coast
tonight. The next upstream disturbance will dig through the
central U.S. on Wednesday with a trough axis extending from the
Great Lakes to the southern Plains. Moisture return ahead of this
system will be extremely limited.

At the surface, an area of low pressure currently along the mid
Atlantic coast will continue to develop and move out over the
western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday.  The trailing cold front,
which is currently pushing across the Florida peninsula with an
associated band of showers and a few thunderstorms, will stall
across the southern Florida peninsula tonight as it becomes parallel
to the U/L flow. The shower/thunderstorm activity will sink slowly
southeast the remainder of today/tonight and will gradually
dissipate overnight as the U/L support lifts out to the northeast
away from the region. Patchy fog is possible across west central
and southwest Florida late tonight. Weak high pressure will build
over west central and southwest Florida in the wake of the cold
front on Wednesday with slightly drier cooler advecting across the
forecast area.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night-Tuesday)...
The rather progressive pattern will persist through the period with
the series of mid/upper level troughs and associated low pressure
systems continuing to move across the CONUS. The first of these
troughs will move across the central and eastern U.S. late in the
week helping to push a cold front southward through the region
Thursday night and early Friday. Out ahead of this front most of the
deep moisture will remain across south Florida close to the stalled
out boundary moving through today. However, some of this moisture
will get pulled northward slightly with best chances of seeing more
showers remaining south of interstate 4, especially across southwest
Florida Thursday and Thursday night, possibly lingering into Friday
morning. Behind this boundary high pressure will build in from the
central states with breezy northerly winds ushering in much cooler
drier air with temperatures several degrees below normal Friday and
Friday night. Over the weekend the next trough will be moving across
the central U.S. while the surface high shifts across the eastern
states and out into the western Atlantic. The low level flow will
shift to northeast to east beginning the moderating trend with
temperatures remaining a few degrees below normal on Saturday and
then close to normal on Sunday. Early next week the next cold front
associated with the second trough will be moving toward the region
with some moisture returning allowing for a slight chance of a few
showers. Temperatures should return to above normal for Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Band of showers and isolated thunderstorms will impact terminals
over southwest Florida through this early this evening with areas
MVFR cigs/vsbys...and brief LCL IFR vsbys in areas of heavier
rain/tstms.  VFR conditions will develop at all terminals tonight
and will persist through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tight gradient will continue to create SCA conditions on portions of
the coastal waters through this afternoon.  Gradient will weaken
tonight and Wednesday with winds and seas subsiding.  A cold front
will push across the waters late Thursday and Thursday night with
SCA conditions developing on gusty north winds...which will likely
persist into Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather hazards expected through the end of the week as
there will be sufficient low level moisture to keep minimum
relative humidity values above critical levels each day.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  64  76  61  72 /  10   0  10  20
FMY  68  81  66  77 /  40  10  10  30
GIF  62  79  59  73 /  20   0  10  20
SRQ  65  75  62  72 /  20   0  10  20
BKV  57  75  52  71 /  10   0  10  10
SPG  65  75  61  71 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/Oglesby
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close



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