Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 231403
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1003 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING SOUNDING DATA SHOWS THAT SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR HAS
WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING ON A DEEP LAYERED
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGING
COVERING THE MS/TN VALLEYS AND NORTHERN GULF REGION. THIS DRIER AIR
HAS ALLOW PW`S TO DROP TO 1.62 INCHES THIS MORNING WHICH IS DOWN
JUST OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY. DESPITE
THIS DROP IN MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD OFFER SOME RESISTANCE TO THE INLAND MOVING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WITH THE SEA BREEZE LIKELY ONLY MAKING IT INLAND
TO JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE
BEST CONVERGENCE/LIFT AND HIGHEST POPS FOR STORMS SHOULD RESIDE FROM
MID AFTERNOON ON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WHICH IS IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST IN-HOUSE HIGH-RES ARW3 AND HRRR-3KM MODELS. WITH THE
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WHICH THE MORNING RAOB
MDPI (MICROBURST DAY POTENTIAL INDEX) OF 0.86 AND DRY MICROBURST
POTENTIAL 3 INDICES SUGGESTS. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS AS THEY MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE 105-107 DEGREE RANGE MAKING FOR SOME VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE OUTDOOR CONDITIONS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE SO A MORNING UPDATE IS NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF TEMPO MVRF/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 19Z BUT HAVE HANDLED WITH
VCTS FOR NOW...OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 6
TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 16Z AS THE BAY/SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. A NORTHEAST
TO EAST STEERING FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY
OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 01Z TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING
THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS CENTERED
ROUGHLY AROUND NEW ORLEANS. THIS WILL GIVE A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR AND
A JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS. CURRENTLY...ALL
OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST ARE REPORTING CALM OR LIGHT WINDS AT
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. RADAR SHOWS NO ACTIVITY FROM SHOWERS OR STORMS.
EXPECT SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AT THE COAST AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
STORMS THAT FORM LATER WILL LIKELY BE OVER LAND AND MOVE TO THE
COASTAL LOCATIONS UNDER A NORTHEAST FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY NEAR
THE COAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING





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