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000
FXUS62 KTBW 080910
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
410 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - MONDAY)...
CURRENTLY ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH FLORIDA CAN BE SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS SPINNING UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SETTING UP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GULF
OF MEXICO ABOVE A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS SETTLING IN TO FLORIDA FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH CLOUD
COVER RAPIDLY CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
IN AREAS WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED OUT EARLY...TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE
TO DROP RAPIDLY WITH MANY SPOTS IN THE NATURE COAST FALLING INTO THE
MID 30S.

AFTER A COOL START TO THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA...GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG
SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT DEW POINTS ARE A BIT TOO DRY
FOR CONFIDENCE TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MODELS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH RESPECT TO THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT FIVE DAYS OUT THAT IS NOT A BIG DIFFERENCE.
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO
END THE WEEK. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MOS NUMBERS HAVE ALSO COME MORE IN
LINE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS NUMBERS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN CLOSE TO NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
BAND OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH EFFECTING FMY AND RSW
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A BAY/SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TODAY...WITH BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK WHEN THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 30S FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WINDS AND ERC VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LINE UP
TO CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BE TOO LOW FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  54  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  75  55  81  59 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  72  54  79  58 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  69  54  74  58 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  70  45  77  49 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  68  58  75  62 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM/AVIATION...69/CLOSE