Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 240522 AAB
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
122 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT REMAINS ACROSS DEEP S FL. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC TRAPPED BELOW AN
INVERSION TO PROVIDE BKN CU ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY BY
LATE MORNING...BUT THIS CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
3500 FT AGL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS FAR SOUTH FLORIDA CLOSE TO THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE
FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES THIS EVENING. FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS
SETUP AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN THIN ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S. OVERALL THE CURRENT GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST LOOK ON
TRACK AND NO EVENING UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECAST IS NEEDED.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.

MARINE...
BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
OUT TO 60 NM...AS WELL AS IN TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR THE
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT MAINLY REMAIN BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL THEREFORE
LOWER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND TAMPA BAY AND HEADLINE
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  62  81  59 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  85  63  83  61 /  10  10   0   0
GIF  82  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  83  63  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  81  51  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  81  68  81  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...20/BARRON
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON





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