Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 030536
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
136 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE FROM KLAL TO KSRQ SOUTHWARD. ONGOING AREA OF SHRA
SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT NORTH...AFFECTING PRIMARILY KRSW/KFMY...AND
POSSIBLY KPGD BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PATCHY
FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH IMPACTS TO VSBYS MORE LIKELY AT
KLAL AND KPGD. WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY LATE
MORNING...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR SCT TSRA
LOOKS TO SHIFT INLAND FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE SEABREEZE...AND WILL
ONLY MENTION VCTS AT KLAL FROM 18Z ON.

84/AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/

UPDATE...
EARLY EVENING KTBW RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS LINED UP ALONG THE SPINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDED. HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH
(HRRR) AND OTHER HIGH RES/SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE
STORMS DRIFTING EAST AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING...WITH ONLY ISOLATED LINGERING CELLS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.

AFTER THE CONVECTION WINDS DOWN...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND 70 OVER THE INTERIOR...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST. TUESDAY WILL IN MANY WAYS SETUP SIMILAR TO
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A STRONGER WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE PUSH...KEEPING THE STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR. AS THESE STORMS MOVE FARTHER EAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
09-10Z...AND CONTINUE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THESE LOW CEILINGS LIFT
OUT...THE ONLY THREAT OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW CAUTIONARY
LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TUESDAY EVENING AND CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS FILLING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...LIKELY CAUSING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  85  73  81 /  10  10  40  70
FMY  72  89  73  86 /  10  20  20  70
GIF  71  88  70  81 /  40  40  30  70
SRQ  73  83  73  81 /  10  10  40  70
BKV  68  85  68  81 /  10  20  50  70
SPG  75  85  73  81 /  10  10  40  70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...18/FLEMING
UPPER AIR...74/WYNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  81  66  81 /  40  70  10   0
FMY  73  86  67  83 /  20  70  20   0
GIF  70  81  62  82 /  30  70  10   0
SRQ  73  81  67  79 /  40  70  10   0
BKV  68  81  59  80 /  50  70  10   0
SPG  73  81  68  81 /  40  70  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

PRIOR AFD...
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...18/FLEMING
UPPER AIR...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE


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