Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 300048
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
848 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEN IN RADAR
IMAGERY. MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL THIS
EVENING FROM CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY...BUT THERE REMAINS
SOME LINGERING POCKETS OF INSTABILITY PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL
ZONES WHICH DIDN/T SEE AS MUCH CONVECTION EARLIER. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT WILL NEED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 11
PM. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RAIN FREE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS AFTER 11 PM AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
LIFTS NORTHWARD ALLOWING A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW TO DEVELOP...KEEPING ANY SHOWERS/STORMS CONFINED TO THE GULF.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
INLAND AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONGOING SHRA/TSRA COULD IMPACT KTPA...KPIE...KSRQ...AND KLAL THROUGH
03Z AND WILL AMEND IF NEEDED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SHIFTS WEST OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA PRODUCING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL
SET UP ALONG THE COASTLINE EACH DAY TURNING THE WINDS TO AN ONSHORE
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST DIRECTION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF
THESE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  92  78  93 /  30  60  30  50
FMY  75  94  76  93 /  10  50  20  50
GIF  76  94  75  93 /  50  50  20  50
SRQ  77  93  76  93 /  30  60  30  50
BKV  74  93  73  93 /  30  60  30  50
SPG  80  93  80  92 /  30  60  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...JELSEMA
MARINE...MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA




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