Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 260018
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
818 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Early evening satellite imagery is showing a broad cyclone
over the central Mississippi River Valley, dragging a
cold front through the northern Gulf Coast. Currently,
Florida resides in the fairly dry and stable airmass ahead
of this system, with a band of cumulus clouds lined up
along the sea breeze boundary along and west of Interstate
75. This band has been producing a few isolated sprinkles
over Southwest Florida, but otherwise rain free conditions
will continue overnight. Surface dew points are high enough
that a few isolated patches of fog will not be impossible,
but the coverage and confidence is too low to mention in the
forecast at this time.

The bigger forecast concern will be what will happen as
that front approaches on Sunday. The GFS is generally more
aggressive than the ECMWF or NAM with holding the front
together and producing rain chances mainly over the Nature
Coast during the afternoon. The 18z GFS has not
significantly changed from what the 12z solution showed,
so no updates to the forecast are planned beyond the Tonight
period for the evening update. The slight rain chances over
Southwest Florida for the rest of this evening have been
dropped. Otherwise only minor adjustments were needed for
the evening update.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions will hold through the next 24 hours.
The possible exception will be if some patchy fog or low
stratus develops late tonight and into early Sunday morning
creating brief periods of MVFR or IFR conditions, although
confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs at this
time. A stronger sea breeze circulation is expected Sunday
afternoon, potentially impacting a few more sites than it
did today by turning the east winds onshore.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure centered over the Atlantic will continue to ridge into
the eastern Gulf through the weekend, as a weak front washes out
over the northeastern Gulf on Sunday. The surface ridge will then
shift west towards Florida through mid week, with light winds and
seas continuing.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  65  80  64  81 /  10  10   0   0
FMY  63  83  61  84 /  10  10  10  10
GIF  61  82  62  83 /  10  10  10   0
SRQ  63  77  61  80 /  10  10   0   0
BKV  60  82  58  83 /  10  10  10   0
SPG  66  79  65  81 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...18/Fleming
UPPER AIR...42/Norman
DECISION SUPPORT...42/Norman



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