Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTBW 030135
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
935 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND WILL EASE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...ONSHORE
NORTHERN FL. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS THAT WILL ROTATE ONSHORE WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FL THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE BEST ODDS AND
MOST COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH...A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. CURRENTLY THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS COVER LEVY COUNTY WHERE A FLOOD WARNING IS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE LOW PRESSURE AND
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN FL WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM PASCO TO
LEVY WILL SEE SOME ABOVE NORMAL TIDES WITH MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE. FROM PINELLAS TO LEE THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK VERY GOOD BUT HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TEXT
FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
02/00Z-03/00Z. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WAS VCNTY SHRA ON THE
GULF SCOOT THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH MON...ALLOWING ENOUGH HEATING FOR MORNING SHRA TO BECOME
TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR BUT TIMING
IS TRICKY AND WILL MAINTAIN VFR. WINDS SW AND WEST ALTHOUGH BACK
TO SOUTHERLY LATE NIGHT IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE... LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN FL WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
VERY ROBUST WINDS...GENERALLY NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP A BIT LONGER AND
HAVE PUSHED THE ADVISORY INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  86  78  90 /  80  80  40  50
FMY  77  90  76  92 /  20  40  30  50
GIF  74  87  74  92 /  50  70  40  50
SRQ  77  87  77  88 /  50  60  40  30
BKV  75  86  74  90 /  90  90  50  50
SPG  77  86  79  89 /  70  80  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA
DATA SERVICES AND HYDROLOGY...007/DOUGHERTY


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.