Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 301956
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
356 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM IN FROM OFF THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
HEAVY RAINS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN STALL
AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT WEAKENS
FURTHER. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN...PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA
SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE (PW`S IN THE 1.8 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE) WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED (POPS 40 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WITH A WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ALBEIT LIGHT FAVORING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND TO
THE EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

ON FRIDAY WEAK MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL AS
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT FAVORING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THEN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SCATTERED RANGE (30 TO 50 PERCENT) AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION.

DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
COOLER DRIER FALL LIKE AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION ON A BREEZY
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND NORTHERN
GULF. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE ALONG PREVIOUS MODEL RUN TRENDS
SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS COOLER AND MUCH DRIER FORECAST CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH A BLEND OF MODELS BEING USED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WILL FALL BACK TO OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING
TEMPO GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS. STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 02Z...WITH A FEW EARLY MORNING COASTAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN
AFTER 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERALL...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS
AND REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND CLOSE TO STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  89  76  88 /  30  50  20  40
FMY  75  90  75  90 /  30  50  20  50
GIF  72  90  74  90 /  40  60  30  50
SRQ  74  87  76  88 /  30  50  20  40
BKV  69  88  70  89 /  40  50  20  50
SPG  77  86  78  88 /  30  50  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE




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