000
FXUS62 KTBW 201935
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
335 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST DURING WEDNESDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE SEA BREEZES WILL
MOVE INLAND WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BEING A LITTLE STRONGER
THANKS TO THE SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SOME OF IT COULD MOVE BACK TOWARD THE WEST
COAST DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR...
GOES SOUNDER INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH...OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND SOME OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO START
MOVING INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE CHANCE POPS IN FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ANY CONVECTION
WILL WIND DOWN BY LATER THIS EVENING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE
MUCH WITH THE BIGGEST QUESTION BEING WHERE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BE LOCATED AND HOW MUCH OF THE DRY AIR OVER THE GULF MAKES IT
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LATEST GUIDANCE DRIFTS THE LOW OVER
THE NATURE COAST DURING TUESDAY WITH SOME OF THE DRY AIR WRAPPING
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. THIS WOULD HELP TO
LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS...WHILE CLOSER TO THE LOW
THE COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH IT WOULD ENHANCE STORM COVERAGE.
AT THE PRESENT TIME HAVE LEFT THE 50 TO 60 POPS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY
EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

ON WEDNESDAY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS FURTHER OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC AS A COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
WILL PLACE THE REGION IN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE SEA BREEZES TO MOVE WELL INLAND AND WITH STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED
CONVECTION POP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH
30 POPS NEAR THE COAST AND 40 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE BASE
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. KEPT GENERALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD STAY EAST OF TPA...PIE AND SRQ BUT COULD
IMPACT LAL...PGD...FMY AND RSW THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH WINDS REMAINING LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  87  72  87 /  30  50  20  30
FMY  70  90  70  90 /  30  50  20  30
GIF  69  89  69  89 /  30  60  20  40
SRQ  70  87  70  87 /  30  50  20  30
BKV  65  88  65  88 /  30  50  20  30
SPG  74  85  74  85 /  30  50  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM...05/CARLISLE
AVIATION...63/JILLSON