Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTBW 021844
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
244 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SO A BLEND WILL BE USED. REMNANT
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT
BUILDS IN OVER REGION WITH A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED.

AS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND. RATHER WARM AND DRY MID LEVEL AIR ALOFT
OVER THE REGION SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE WITH ONLY A FEW STORMS EXPECTED...IF EVEN THAT. TONIGHT ANY
CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S INLAND
AREAS AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINATE
WEATHER FEATURE. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN UNDER THE HIGH WILL ALLOW
THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO DEVELOP WITH SOME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AS THEY
MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO TODAY THOUGH OVERALL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO THE
SUPPRESSING INFLUENCES FROM THE RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH RAIN CHANCES
IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AT BEST...MAINLY OVER INLAND SECTIONS.
OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH SO ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 90 ALONG THE COAST...AND LOWER 90S INLAND.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN
HALF...ALTHOUGH LONGER-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD UPPER
LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND LINGERING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE AREA...BRINGING A RETURN TO AN EASTERLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE PATTERN
THEN BECOMES RATHER ILL-DEFINED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BACK-
DOOR BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH WEAK
TROUGHING LOOKING TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AS FAR AS
RAIN CHANCES...THEY WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF BOTH THE TYPICAL SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE BOUNDARY FOCUS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WARM DRY MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT KPGD...KFMY...AND KRSW TERMINALS BETWEEN
00-03Z THIS EVENING AS HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME SEA
BREEZE INDUCED SHRA/TSRA MAY IMPACT THESE TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER 01Z TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS
AFTER 15Z ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING IN OVER THE WATERS WILL
SUPPORT TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS...WITH AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE BRIEFLY HIGHER IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...OTHERWISE NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING DECREASING CHANCES OF HEAVY RAINS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS HAS CAUSED 5 LOCAL RIVERS TO RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD
STAGE...1 RIVER TO RISE ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD STAGE AND 2 OTHER
RIVER TO RISE ABOVE ACTION STAGE. THESE RIVERS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN
TO RECEDE BUT COULD TAKE WEEKS TO DROP BELOW FLOOD LEVEL.

RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS OR FASTER FLOWING STREAMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER LEVELS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND SHOULD FLOODING BE OBSERVED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  91  79  91 /  10  20  10  40
FMY  77  92  77  92 /  30  20  10  40
GIF  76  93  77  91 /  10  30  30  60
SRQ  77  89  79  90 /  10  10  10  30
BKV  74  91  74  91 /  10  20  20  40
SPG  79  90  80  90 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
HYDROLOGY...74/WYNN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.