Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 301844
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
244 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Friday)...
Ongoing convection over inland sections of the forecast area late
this afternoon will gradually wind down after sunset tonight with
warm and muggy conditions under partly cloudy skies expected
overnight. The exception to this will over the Gulf waters and
right along the coast where additional showers or isolated
storms will again be possible overnight through the early morning
hours on Friday within the favored deep layered onshore flow where
isolated pops (20 percent) will be depicted in the grids and
zones.

On Friday upper ridging over the Bahamas and offshore the
southeast Florida coast combined with a mid and upper level
trough over the southeastern states and the Florida Panhandle with
the surface high meandering about the southern peninsula will
maintain a deep layered south to southwest wind flow over the
forecast area.

Ample moisture (PW`s in the 1.8 to 2+ inch range) combined with
daytime heating will continue to support scattered to numerous
diurnal sea breeze driven showers and storms across the forecast
area with the onshore flow favoring early morning convection along
the coast shifting to inland locations east of the I-75 corridor
during the afternoon and early evening hours where the highest
rain chances and best storm coverage will again reside as the sea
breeze boundary moves inland. In addition to the sea breeze
convection a mid level shear axis sinking southeast across the
north central peninsula will aid in additional convective
development and coverage over the northeast Gulf waters and over
the north-central forecast area during Friday afternoon where
pops in the 40 to 60 percent range will be depicted.

Temperatures tonight will continue to run above normal due to the
onshore flow with lows in the mid 70s inland areas, and upper 70s
to around 80 along the coast. Daytime highs on Friday will run
near normal with highs climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night - Thursday)...
A series of short wave troughs traverse the north-central and
northeast conus as upper level ridging holds across the Gulf of
Mexico and FL from the Atlantic. A frontal boundary from the
south-central plains to the Mid- Atlantic coast lingers in place
then washes out around mid- week. The Bermuda high extends
westward with an axis that meanders out of south fl and over
south-central or central FL.

The forecast philosophy is for typical summertime weather to
continue through next week...including the 4th of July. The upper
ridge along with westerly low level flow for much of the period
will keep temperatures running near to just above normal. Model
PWAT values range from around 1.6 to near 2 inches...adequate for
isolated to scattered showers and storms. initially these will be
isolated late night/early morning near or on the coast then become
scattered inland on westerly flow. Then as the ridge axis creeps
north the flow south of the axis shifts to southeasterly. Although
the gradient stays relaxed enough for sea breezes to dominate each
afternoon...just less so across the south and allowing showers and
storms to be closer to the coast. The relaxed gradient will
benefit marine interests by keeping prevailing winds and sea
benign. However any thunderstorms near or drifting off the coast
will provide some higher winds and seas.

&&

.AVIATION...
Brief MVFR conditions from shra/tsra may impact KTPA through 20Z
this afternoon and KLAL, KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW terminals through
01Z tonight and have handled with VCTS for now, otherwise mainly
VFR is expected during the next 24 hours. Southwest to west winds
at 7 to 10 knots will prevail the remainder of the afternoon with
higher gusts in the vicinity of tsra. Southwest to west winds will
diminish to around 5 knots after 02Z tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will remain across the southern peninsula
through the upcoming holiday weekend. The high will drift north
to the central peninsula early next week. Tranquil boating
conditions will continue through the period with a south to
southwest wind flow around 10 knots expected tonight through
Sunday, with the flow becoming southwest to west at similar speeds
early next week as the ridge axis shifts northward. Wind and seas
will be higher in the vicinity of thunderstorms, otherwise no
headlines are anticipated.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Abundant moisture combined with daily rain chances will keep
humidity values well above critical levels through early next week
with no fire weather issues expected at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  78  89  79  90 /  10  50  20  40
FMY  76  91  77  92 /  30  40  10  30
GIF  75  90  76  93 /  50  60  30  50
SRQ  78  88  78  90 /  10  40  20  30
BKV  73  89  74  90 /  20  50  20  40
SPG  80  89  80  90 /  10  40  20  30

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/McMichael
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/Rude


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