Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 311333
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
933 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS MORNING SEPARATES AN UNSEASONABLY DRY
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS (PW 1.44 INCH VIA 12Z RAOB DATA) ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENINSULA...WHILE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
(PW AOA 2 INCHES) REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. AS THE DAY
CONTINUES THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWEST WITH TIME...WHICH WILL INCREASE CHANCES (ALTHOUGH
STILL BELOW CLIMO) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST
POLK COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TO ENGLEWOOD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES SLOWLY INLAND...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES AND HIGHEST AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS LIKELY TO SET UP ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE THE
BEST EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESIDE. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY FIRE OFF OVER CENTRAL INTERIOR POLK
COUNTY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES
OTHERWISE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS FROM THE
TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD INTO THE NATURE COAST WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE SO NO MORNING UPDATE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPACT KPGD...KFMY...AND KRSW
TERMINALS AFTER 16Z AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AND HAVE HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
IS EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 16Z AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS. VARIABLE WINDS AOB 5 KNOTS WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES AFTER
01Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEED BEING
DICTATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS EACH DAY/NIGHT. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WATERS DURING MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS BEGINNING
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING






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