Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 220922
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
422 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IS SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM THE GULF. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL BE GRADUALLY LIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. GENERALLY S/SE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY WITH LOTS
OF UPPER ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES CLOSER TO THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH
HIGHS TUESDAY AGAIN IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHICH ALONG WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
ATLANTIC RESULTS IN DEEP MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA. THE TROUGH AND AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TREKS EASTWARD WED
AND EXITS TO THE ATLANTIC BY DAY BREAK THU. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...THE DEEP MOISTURE...AND
APPROACHING FRONT WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWERS
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST ODDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE... ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED.

DURING THE DAY THU DEEP RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF AND SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD FRI...REACHING THE ATLANTIC SAT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
STABLE DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE...UP
THROUGH SAT.

THEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS HAS A MODEST
LONG WAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WITH A SURFACE LOW AND
DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE GULF. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE ROBUST LONG WAVE
TROUGH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WITH A SURFACE LOW AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ON THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. BOTH MODELS TRACK THESE FEATURES
EASTWARD DURING THE END OF THE PERIOD..WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER.
WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL HAVE GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...
BKN-OVC CIGS AT 040-060 ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AND CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z. SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT MAINLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH 16Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA
LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL START
TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES. IT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING STRONG STORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  66  78  69 /  40  20  30  40
FMY  82  66  83  69 /  20  10  10  20
GIF  81  64  81  67 /  40  20  30  40
SRQ  79  66  79  69 /  30  10  20  30
BKV  78  64  79  68 /  60  30  30  50
SPG  77  66  77  68 /  40  20  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE




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