Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 300814
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
414 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5
INCHES. ALSO THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
CONVECTION. THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO PRECEDE THIS FRONT WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST SOUTHWARD INTO THE INTERIOR
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME CONCENTRATED BACK OVER THE EASTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER LAND. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS/SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM REMAINING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO
AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS SOME COOLER DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR HALLOWEEN EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID 80S. TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE
LOWER 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.


.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A VERY DEEP UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY ITSELF IS GOING TO FEEL QUITE CHILLY. TEMPERATURES MAY
CONTINUE TO FALL FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN
CLIMB SLOWLY INTO THE 60S...WITH SOME LOWER 70S FAR SOUTH. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST ALL DAY. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...BUT THE COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WARMER
GULF WATERS WILL RESULT IN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WHICH WILL AFFECT
MAINLY COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE 15
TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE 40S. THERE
IS NO RISK OF FROST SINCE WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT AND DEW POINTS
WILL BE QUITE LOW. WE SHOULD STAY ABOVE RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER
2ND. THE RECORD AT TAMPA IS 40 DEGREES SET IN 1993. OUR CURRENT
FORECAST LOW FOR TAMPA IS AROUND 47.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING IN BY MONDAY. COOL AIR WILL BE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION
AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...BUT
WITH TIME THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A
QUICK WARM UP BY MID-WEEK. SUNDAY WILL STILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY AROUND 70...BUT TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER THAT
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER COULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS...SO WILL
LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHES OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING COULD CAUSE SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING EXERCISE
CAUTION CRITERIA. A SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING THE REAL PUSH
OF COOLER DRIER AIR WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AND DIMINISH SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN STATES. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
PERSISTING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE
WEEKEND MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SEVERAL HOURS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH ERC VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
IN A FEW COUNTIES LIKE PINELLAS...CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES...
THEN WE COULD SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BELOW 15 MPH ON SUNDAY AND UNLESS ERC VALUES CLIMB A
BUNCH WE SHOULD STAY BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  65  79  59 /  20  20  10   0
FMY  86  67  81  61 /  10  20  20   0
GIF  85  65  79  57 /  30  20  10   0
SRQ  83  65  79  60 /  20  20  10   0
BKV  84  55  78  49 /  30  20   0   0
SPG  83  70  77  63 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON





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