Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 271732
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1232 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Compact vorticity max that helped bring rain and light snow showers
overnight has moved southeast of the area and precipitation has
temporarily come to an end. Farther west, an area of weak isentropic
ascent coincident with deeper moisture was fueling an area of
showers from southwest NE into central KS. This lift supporting this
area of light precip is likely to remain just west of the forecast
area, although a few sprinkles may fall through the drier low level
air in north central KS today. High temperatures today will depend
heavily upon cloud cover. It currently appears that there could be a
few breaks in eastern KS, but at least high cloud cover will likely
keep temperatures low today...and have dropped highs from the
previous forecast into the mid 40s to around 50. The clouds will
also help moderate temperatures overnight with lows expected to hold
in the lower 30s. Another vort max will bring a chance for rain
showers with a small chance for snow this evening and overnight. The
best chance will be in far eastern KS, but scattered showers are
possible as far west as Highway 81 overnight as well. Any precip
that does develop will be light.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

The shortwave that skims the area Friday night should be east of the
area by Saturday morning, resulting in dry conditions through
Saturday night before the next system approaches on Sunday. Models
show a mid-level trough tracking eastward over the northern Rockies
on Saturday and deepening as it advances into the Northern and
Central Plains Saturday night into Sunday. This advancing trough
will help to push a cold front through the area on Sunday, however
confidence remains low with regards to the potential for
precipitation from this passing system. The better forcing and lift
should remain north and east of the CWA, but some models still
suggest that some light rain showers could skim across far northern
and northeastern Kansas on Sunday, with the ECMWF being the most
aggressive solution. As a result, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in the forecast. As for weekend temperatures, easterly flow on
Saturday should keep temperatures cooler across eastern Kansas with
highs in the 50s but expect warmer conditions toward central Kansas
where highs may reach into the 60s. Despite the frontal passage on
Sunday, there doesn`t look to be much cold air surging in behind the
boundary and expect highs to reach into the mid/upper 60s.

Surface high pressure settles into the region by Monday, resulting
in dry conditions through Tuesday night. The surface high will
quickly shift southeast of the area on Monday, shifting winds to the
southwest and providing decent warm air advection into the region
for early next week. Trended a few degrees warmer with high
temperatures in the low/mid 70s Monday and mid/upper 70s Tuesday.
The next mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on
Tuesday and track eastward into the Northern Plains on Wednesday.
This trough will push low pressure into the area and bring another
frontal through the CWA on Wednesday. Models actually are in
surprisingly decent agreement with highlighting the potential for a
line of showers and thunderstorms to develop along and behind this
boundary Wednesday and Wednesday night with decent QPF amounts
possible.  CIN looks to erode away in the morning with only weak
inhibition in place for the afternoon and evening hours. Models show
some modest CAPE and bulk shear in place with this system, so we
will need to keep an eye on how this system evolves in the models.
Surface high pressure will move in behind this system, resulting in
dry conditions for Thursday. There doesn`t appear to be much cold
air behind the frontal passage so temperatures for Wednesday and
Thursday look to stay in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Moderate north winds should subside
over the next few hours with cloud bases building down quickly but
should remain above limiting levels. Some potential for light
precip continues in the mainly 06Z-10Z period, but not worthy or
predictable for TAF mention.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...65






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