106
FXUS63 KTOP 111720
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1220 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more hot day today with heat indices near 100 along/south
  of I-70.

- Cold front timing this evening is slightly faster, but still
  expecting scattered storms to develop, most likely across
  east-central KS. A few severe storms possible with winds the
  main threat.

- A few lingering showers possible Saturday, but otherwise a
  cooler weekend before heat builds again first half of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Water vapor imagery this morning shows a series of shortwaves moving
across the northern half of the CONUS. A convectively enhanced lead
shortwave is present over Iowa, with the main shortwave back over
western Kansas and Nebraska. A third, broader shortwave is farther
to the northwest over Montana. At the surface, a 1006 mb surface low
is present over south-central Nebraska with a cold front trailing to
the southwest from there. The main forecast change is to bring this
front through the area this evening a few hours faster and more
positively tilted. This will keep convergence along/ahead of the
front slightly weaker, so have bumped PoPs down a bit this evening.
Even still, with a hot and well-mixed boundary layer ahead of the
front, do expect some scattered thunderstorms to develop late
afternoon and into the evening across east-central KS. With around
2500 J/kg of ML CAPE and 20 kts of shear, any storm that develops
could be strong to severe. The well mixed boundary layer with steep
low-level lapse rates will keep damaging winds as the main threat,
though some small hail could also occur. Total rainfall amounts also
look lower with the faster frontal speed and lower storm coverage,
though any storm could still dump some briefly heavy rain.

Cooler temperatures move in behind the front for Saturday. Exact
highs will be dependent on cloud cover, but somewhere in the mid to
upper 80s seems reasonable. We will see a lingering chance for a
brief shower or storms as the Montana shortwave brings a weak
secondary front across the area. Briefly drier air behind this
secondary front and rising mid-level heights will make for a dry day
on Sunday.

We return to a warmer, quasi-zonal pattern for the first part of
next week. Highs once again climb into the 90s, while a moist and
mostly uncapped will keep some low shower/storm chances around.
Better than average agreement in another upper trough and cold front
to approach by sometime Wednesday into Thursday, which would again
bring some drier air and drop temperatures back into the 80s.
However tough to be too confident in a Day 6 cold front, especially
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conditions expected. A cold front will move through terminals
this afternoon/evening with winds becoming northwesterly behind
the front and eventually becoming northerly by Saturday morning.
A few storms could develop near KTOP/KFOE between 20-23z, but
confidence is low in direct impacts to terminals. Maintained a
PROB30 group to cover this potential. There is a low chance for
some MVFR cigs to build into the area Saturday morning, but
better chances are east of terminals and have kept out mention.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Flanagan