189
FXUS63 KTOP 120740
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
240 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly cooler this weekend, then back in the 90s for the first
half of next week.

- Continued low (20-40%) rain chances through mid-week, but no
  good signal for widespread, appreciable rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Yesterday evening`s cold front has fully moved across the forecast
area, and is now stretched across the Ozarks and into northeast
Oklahoma. Behind this first front is a weak reinforcing front moving
across central KS and NE. This is tied to a stronger but farther
north shortwave moving across the Northern Plains this morning. A
few lingering showers and storms along this secondary front will
briefly make it into north-central KS by sunrise, but should quickly
weaken as they run into higher CIN and weaker upper support.
Otherwise, the weekend looks rather quiet. Temperatures behind the
front will be a bit cooler than the past few days, though still only
a degree or two below average highs/lows. Will keep some 20% PoPs
around across parts of east-central KS, as a subtle mid-level wave
over Oklahoma may be enough to develop some light rain to the north
of the old frontal boundary.

Temperatures warm back up Monday through Wednesday as upper flow to
our north becomes more zonal again and southerly surface winds
return. Similar to the past few days, highs climb into the 90s each
day with lows near 70. A moist and uncapped airmass will keep
precipitation chances around as well, though with little upper
forcing the chances for widespread moderate to heavy rainfall seem
unlikely. Still some indications for a bit of a stronger shortwave
to clip the area sometime late Wednesday or Thursday, pushing
another weak front southward. If this did occur, it would again
bring slightly cooler temperatures and better precipitation
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Main uncertainty is coverage of MVFR ceilings for a few
hours this morning. Highest confidence is east of KTOP/KFOE, so will
only go with a prevailing scattered group for now. Winds stay below
10 kts through the period, generally from the north.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese