Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 052337

537 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A quiet pattern is in store for north central and northeast Kansas
for the next several days, with a steady warm up into more spring-
like weather through the next seven days. Surface pressure trends
show the surface ridge across eastern Missouri moving east with
time, which will allow for a tighter gradient to become more
established over the area. S/SW winds will pick up through the
overnight period, and persist through the day on Friday. The more
westerly component to the surface wind field, along with some
better mixing will allow for temps to rise into the 50s across the
entire area, with perhaps a few spots in central Kansas reaching
the 60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The general warming trend will continue into the weekend, with
warmer H85 temps moving in, with the steady westerly and/or
southerly component to the surface winds. By Saturday temperatures
might be able to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area
as soundings indicate some better mixing for the weekend. The
forecast package reflects a dry forecast for the entire 7-day
period across the entire area, however one feature to perhaps
watch will come during the Saturday-Sunday time frame as a
southern stream mid level trough dives southward into northern
Mexico, then across Texas as it broadens out. ECMWF has shown a
rather aggressive push northward of some moisture, which will
likely fall short of our area; that being said will continue to
watch for the potential for some minimal rain Saturday night and
Sunday across SE Kansas. While the day-to-day warming for the
weekend will be somewhat minimal, meaning highs for Fri- Sun will
likely be in the upper 50s to lower 60s for all three days, a more
substantial warm up is in store for early next week, as both ECMWF
and GFS come to an agreement that the entire forecast area will be
located within deep within a warm sector, as a surface warm front
surges northward. Mid level ridging will keep the precipitation at
bay, while also providing some subsidence, which will work with
the SW surface flow to provide temps in the middle to upper 60s,
perhaps into the lower 70s for the Mon through Thursday period. With
warming temperatures and southwest winds picking up for early next
week may need to watch the potential for critical fire weather


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 534 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Although confidence is not high, will
go ahead with low level wind shear inclusion with surface winds
expected to be on low side of guidance and the low altitude of the
stronger winds.




SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Leighton
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