Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 011136

636 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developed across south
central Nebraska into central Kansas early this morning in zone of
isentropic lift ahead of a weak mid level wave. Latest
mesoanalysis shows deep moisture convergence at 08Z from south
central Nebraska into central Kansas. Latest runs of the RAP and
HRRR bring the convection east into north central Kansas this
morning before weakening by late morning. Main axis for activity
looks to remain across central Kansas where moisture advection is
focused within the low level jet. Temperatures today look top
reach the low to mid 70s with partly sunny skies.

Tonight, the surface high moves off to the east while lee side
trough deepens increasing the pressure gradient. This will keep the
lower boundary layer mixed across central and western Kansas and
keep temperatures in the upper 50s for lows. Upper level ridge will
build over eastern Kansas overnight. Any convection looks to remain
across western Kansas overnight and will maintain a dry forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

Tuesday looking to be one of the last more likely dry periods of
much of the remainder of the forecast. Models are similar with a
weak upper wave coming east out of Colorado late tonight and into
central Kansas in the daytime hours but low level atmosphere looks
capped with the airmass still recovering. There continues to be a
decent pressure gradient in mid-level isentropic surfaces Tuesday
but little upglide for precip formation. Increased southerly winds
will help to push highs into the upper 70s to lower 80s. For the
next few periods, will be watching how convection transpires to the
north and west, with 850-300mb thicknesses and Corfidi vectors
potentially bringing some of this into the area. A cold front looks
to be making slow southeast progress through the Plains for these
periods with large instability along it. Southerly 850mb winds in
the 30-40kt range will help maintain any convection, but much
remains to be seen where convection will fire and focus. Perhaps the
best chances for precip come late Thursday and Thursday night with
the front nearing, though weak upper ridge may keep warm enough mid
levels for lesser chances in southern areas. Some increase in precip
potential returns in the weekend as stronger flow over the Northern
Plains breaks the ridge down for northwest flow to return with
moisture again pooling along the front range. Will keep the slow
warming trend going into late week with some decreases behind the
modifying front by Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Winds
east less than 10 kts are expected through the period.




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